Is Live Music Making A Comeback?

[leftyjay]

with over 11,500 more cases today in Florida, it looks really grim for music to return to inside venues this year, let alone next year.

I am fortunate to have a couple years of contracted bookings for my private parties. Eventually, it will be possible to play those inside parties again, but, I'm not planning on this winters bookings to hold up. The contracted parties will soon cancel as things keep going down hill.

this is my guess......Florida will be up to 15k cases daily by July 18 or earlier. I hope not, but so far, there has been nothing to slow it down. And with 50% of the people not taking it seriously, the other 50% cant stop it.

 

[Notes_Norton]

I read in the paper this morning the corrected figure is almost 12,500 confirmed cases.

I figure I'm out of work for at least a year. With the possible exception of our once a week outdoor gig we've had for 12 years. They owners are planning on having us back if the business will afford us in late October.

Difference between Airborne Disease and Droplet Disease is Airborne is Dry and can travel for much greater distances, Droplet is wet but can still travel quite far (remember, the humidity in the air is comprised of droplets of water).

Both are spread by Airborne Transmission.

It's going to be a long, quiet, winter tourist season.

Insights and incites by Notes

 

[Newman2020]

I think everything that involves personal interaction is making a comeback. The overreaction ran its course and now we're going back to normalcy of a sort. As a culture we're learning to accept the risk and let the chips fall where they may as we do with things like traffic deaths the flu heart disease and everything else that kills people. Life is risk. And the more full the life the greater the risks involved. And it's not just risks to life itself. People risk reputation, people risk income, people risk their emotional well-being. And all of these are to live a more full life usually.

CV 19 will simply become another one of those things that might kill you just like all the other stuff that might kill you. The good news is that mainly focuses on the elderly. And it's not lost on me that the response to it in the beginning may have actually been creating more deaths than saving people.

We'll know more in a year, but one thing that is clear is it the number of daily deaths is dropping Like a Stone. And this is true even as the number of cases Rises. It looks like we're getting more cases simply because they're testing more people. Or maybe the redefining what a case actually is. I don't know, but one thing's for sure, if the number of deaths we're seeing each day today is what we've seen during the entire time this has been in existence, this would have been a big nothing, except to those that got it, kind of like the flu.

 

[daddymack]

1 hour ago, Newman2020 said:

The good news is that mainly focuses on the elderly.

How in the hell do you think this is good news?

[Newman2020]

3 hours ago, daddymack said:

How in the hell do you think this is good news?

If a disease were to actually ravage a population, that would be a terrible thing. But it would be even worse if it ravaged The Young and the children versus ravaging those already close to death. And I say that as someone that is close to death. I would happily take one as opposed to let that one be aimed at one of my grandchildren.

[Phil O'Keefe]

On 7/4/2020 at 6:59 AM, Notes_Norton said:

OK, I checked it out. COVID-19 is not technically an Airborne Disease by definition it is a Droplet Disease.

On the other hand the primary mode of infection of COVID19 is Airborne Transmission.

Although Airborne Disease and Airborne Transmission use the same word, they are not the same thing.

So when someone says, "I'm not wearing a mask because COVID-19 is not an airborne disease." A person could counter with, "While you are technically correct, airborne transmission is it's primary mode of transmission."

COVID is not a contact disease either, but it can also be transmitted by contact with an infected person.

Insights and incites by Notes

 

Actually, you may have been right the first time Notes - there were health experts and scientists saying that people should "presume" COVID-19 is airborne at least as early as April; that was based in part on a New England Journal of Medicine study that showed that the coronavirus could stay suspended in the air for up to three hours - findings which the WHO dismissed / disagreed with. And just this morning I read an article about over 200 scientists who have written the WHO to disagree with them regarding their position re: aerosol transmission of the disease. 

 

[leftyjay]

There is definitely a difference in where you live, and who you play for. I moved to SW Florida because the music business was good. Not just the beach/tiki bars, but there are thousands of mobile home parks down here. Every park has a hall. Every one books entertainment weekly for parties. They sell tickets for these parties and book you many months, and even years ahead. On average, there are between 150-300 people at each party.  Tickets are usually between $5-10. The hours are great (6-9 or 7-10pm) They pay 500-800 a gig. Plus, they book you any day of the week because they are all retired (everyday is a Saturday night). Problem is, they are at least 60 yrs old.  

When I first moved here, I started out playing local bars and making $100-150 for 4 hours and playing outside in the Florida heat and humidity. It was tough playing these venues 4-5 days a week. Then, I started being asked to play these Mobile Home Parks, RV Resorts, Country Clubs, and a few Elks clubs. Once I got my foot in the door of these venues, it took off to the point I gave up all bar gigs.

So, I put all my eggs in one basket. I play these venues because it is nice. It has been working great for the last 18 years.

The problem with the covid virus is, it effects this crowds age bracket (60+ yrs old) They are in the age range that this virus really kicks their ass. So, those jobs are not going to come back any time soon as long they are at risk. They aren't going to go anywhere because of the risk. And they aren't going to come down to Florida if there are no activities.

And finally, since I am 60+ and have asthma, I don't want to play outside for a bunch of 20 to 35 yr somethings that are spreading the virus and don't care.

[Notes_Norton]

On 7/5/2020 at 9:39 AM, Newman2020 said:

<...snip...>

CV 19 will simply become another one of those things that might kill you just like all the other stuff that might kill you. The good news is that mainly focuses on the elderly. <...>

In Florida, OVER HALF the deaths have with people under 65. So just how does that relate to a disease of the elderly?

The USA is still averaging over 1,000 per deaths per day, they haven't gone down. That makes 365,000 deaths per year. I think that is much more than the flu (12,000 to 61,000 per year), traffic accidents (3,223 last year) combined.

Minimizing the effect of the flu, is not going to help yourself or anyone else.

Don't listen to what "news" pundits on propaganda stations, science deniers, real estate salesmen, preachers, flat-earthers, anti-vaxxers, FB/Twitter bots, and anyone else except for respected, peer-reviewed, published medical scientists say.

My Brother-in-law is a world famous doctors among other doctors and has published over 100 papers in respected peer reviewed journals. He was one of the first to identify COVID as a blood disease that is primarily spread by Airborne Transmission. He says this disease makes the flu look like a walk in the park. The amount of permanent destruction this does to your internal organs is unprecedented, even among the cured, mild cases. He emphasizes you don't want to catch this disease.

So go out and catch it if you want, but please wear your mask so you don't inadvertently harm or kill innocent bystanders. It's the civil thing to do and I think we want to live in a civilized country.

---

And yes Phil, it has now been demonstrated that COVID is both a droplet and airborne disease that can also linger on many surfaces.

---

LeftyJay I also pretty much gave up the bar business for the yacht clubs, country clubs, retirement developments and resorts  (RV and Mobile Home) here in South East Florida in 1990 when we got off the cruise ships. It has been very good to us. If I can work 2 days a week, I make more than I can in a bar for 5 or 6.

Come COVID everything stopped. But it would have if I was still playing in Bars as they are closed too.

I may have my one-day-per-week seasonal lunchtime gig in an outdoor restaurant come lat October. The owners want us back, but it depends on business. We've been doing this one, it's our public exposure, once a week for 12 years and two owners. I've got mixed feelings about going back if we continue to be the hot spot of the USA.

I think it's going to be a looooong time before the live music business starts to recover. Our current hope is a vaccine, but that is not a given, it might not be possible for this disease although it does seem slightly hopeful right now.

So wear your masks, and your gloves, keep your distance and stay healthy everyone.

Notes

[Newman2020]

29 minutes ago, Notes_Norton said:

In Florida, OVER HALF the deaths have with people under 65. So just how does that relate to a disease of the elderly?

The USA is still averaging over 1,000 per deaths per day, they haven't gone down. That makes 365,000 deaths per year. I think that is much more than the flu (12,000 to 61,000 per year), traffic accidents (3,223 last year) combined.

Minimizing the effect of the flu, is not going to help yourself or anyone else.

Don't listen to what "news" pundits on propaganda stations, science deniers, real estate salesmen, preachers, flat-earthers, anti-vaxxers, FB/Twitter bots, and anyone else except for respected, peer-reviewed, published medical scientists say.

My Brother-in-law is a world famous doctors among other doctors and has published over 100 papers in respected peer reviewed journals. He was one of the first to identify COVID as a blood disease that is primarily spread by Airborne Transmission. He says this disease makes the flu look like a walk in the park. The amount of permanent destruction this does to your internal organs is unprecedented, even among the cured, mild cases. He emphasizes you don't want to catch this disease.

So go out and catch it if you want, but please wear your mask so you don't inadvertently harm or kill innocent bystanders. It's the civil thing to do and I think we want to live in a civilized country.

---

And yes Phil, it has now been demonstrated that COVID is both a droplet and airborne disease that can also linger on many surfaces.

---

LeftyJay I also pretty much gave up the bar business for the yacht clubs, country clubs, retirement developments and resorts  (RV and Mobile Home) here in South East Florida in 1990 when we got off the cruise ships. It has been very good to us. If I can work 2 days a week, I make more than I can in a bar for 5 or 6.

Come COVID everything stopped. But it would have if I was still playing in Bars as they are closed too.

I may have my one-day-per-week seasonal lunchtime gig in an outdoor restaurant come lat October. The owners want us back, but it depends on business. We've been doing this one, it's our public exposure, once a week for 12 years and two owners. I've got mixed feelings about going back if we continue to be the hot spot of the USA.

I think it's going to be a looooong time before the live music business starts to recover. Our current hope is a vaccine, but that is not a given, it might not be possible for this disease although it does seem slightly hopeful right now.

So wear your masks, and your gloves, keep your distance and stay healthy everyone.

Notes

This is the site I use: https://www.worldometers.info/

According to them, there are only a few hundred deaths per day in the US now. Of course that is a bad thing, especially for those directly affected. But there are a lot of bad things that happen to people that end up killing them. According to that site, the number of people killed by communicable diseases so far this year is 6.5 million. This is just one of many things that can kill a person. I'll wear a mask at a retirement home, but other than that, life goes on and risk gets accepted. Here are a lot of health figures from that site. What makes this virus special is that it is new. Heh. I didn't think that would work but this is cool - that I can cut and paste an image from the snipping tool.

[Newman2020]

In fact, now that I know I can easily paste screen prints, check out the death rate in the US right now compare to the "case" rate (whatever they mean by "case"). Suddenly cases don't look quite so deadly:

[Newman2020]

BTW, I just realized we're talking about this in "solo and duo acts" forum. Shouldn't we be in one of the off topic forums. Maybe open jam...

[pinkfloydcramer61]

11 hours ago, Newman2020 said:

BTW, I just realized we're talking about this in "solo and duo acts" forum. Shouldn't we be in one of the off topic forums. Maybe open jam...

No Newman, all this is on topic now. Because until there is a vaccine,  the only valid reason to talk about live music on musicians' forums is to persuade people not to play live until one is developed. But posting any data (such as your charts showing the continued downward trajectory of COVID deaths even during rising cases), that downplays the unprecedented deadliness of this disease, will get crickets on musicians' internet forums. It's not the preferred narrative.

[Newman2020]

On 7/5/2020 at 4:50 PM, Phil O'Keefe said:

 

Actually, you may have been right the first time Notes - there were health experts and scientists saying that people should "presume" COVID-19 is airborne at least as early as April; that was based in part on a New England Journal of Medicine study that showed that the coronavirus could stay suspended in the air for up to three hours - findings which the WHO dismissed / disagreed with. And just this morning I read an article about over 200 scientists who have written the WHO to disagree with them regarding their position re: aerosol transmission of the disease. 

 

This is totally off topic, but I think I saw an unboxing  video by you once.

[Newman2020]

9 hours ago, pinkfloydcramer61 said:

No Newman, all this is on topic now. Because until there is a vaccine,  the only valid reason to talk about live music on musicians' forums is to persuade people not to play live until one is developed. But posting any data (such as your charts showing the continued downward trajectory of COVID deaths even during rising cases), that downplays the unprecedented deadliness of this disease, will get crickets on musicians' internet forums. It's not the preferred narrative.

Did I do a rules violation?

[Voltan]

2 hours ago, Newman2020 said:

Did I do a rules violation?

id say no...   this is very pertinent to the single and duo acts...  and im sure someone would have been quick to point it out...

[Voltan]

oh wait... my bad...   according to prior practices...  sometimes they take their time saying anything...   it depends upon who you are perceived to be around here...

[Notes_Norton]

Until there is a vaccine, our industry is kaput because unlike most other countries, we don't have the compassion to put a rag on our face to keep others from getting sick and dying. The USA is no longer civilized IMO. I've been to quite a few foreign countries from North America to Europe to Asia to Australia to Central America and plenty of islands, and we have become the least civilized that I've been to. "It's me first and f*** everyone else. I'd rather the others die than to slightly inconvenience myself. The safety rules are for wimps."

If there is no vaccine, same result for the same reason.

In Florida, the bars are closed -- the tourists aren't coming because we are a major hot spot -- the yacht clubs are closed -- the country clubs are golfing outdoors but nothing indoors -- there are no concerts -- the cruise ships are gone -- the hotels are empty -- the charter fishing boats sit idle on the docks -- and things are getting worse. We keep breaking the record for the most cases in a day, which I believe now is 11,500.

Where in the hell do you think we are going to play?

I'd love to get back to work, but it looks like it isn't going to happen this year or next.

Right now the USA has about 1/4 the COVID cases in the world, and we certainly don't have 1/4 the worlds population here. We also have about 1/4 the fatalities in the world, and again, we don't have 1/4 of the world's population here. We are obviously doing something wrong, something very, very, very wrong. https://ncov2019.live/

China has 1.393M people, India has 1.353M, the USA 328M and we have 1/4 the world's deaths and cases.

So perhaps if we started being civilized and compassionate about other people and did our best to stop the spread of this disease like other countries, perhaps we could get back to gigging sooner? Nah. Too many of us would rather believe a propaganda "news" pundit, Facebook/Twitter bot, preacher, real estate salesman, flat-earther, anti-vaxxer, anti-science person or anyone but the scientists who actually study and know about diseases.

So we are screwed.

But then I guess it's better unemployed than under the sod.

Insights and incites by Notes

 

[Voltan]

notes?    alien contact in multiple major urban areas around the planet...   slated for august!   

[pinkfloydcramer61]

18 hours ago, Notes_Norton said:

So perhaps if we started being civilized and compassionate about other people and did our best to stop the spread of this disease like other countries, perhaps we could get back to gigging sooner?

Insights and incites by Notes

 

So there you have it. If you gig, you're being uncivilized and not compassionate. People whose propaganda conditions them to believe civilization will be destroyed by a disease with a mortality rate of less than .5% (continually revised further down as many are discovered to be asymptomatic), to be terrified of a world dripping with coronavirus, can't stand that not everyone else is similarly conditioned, that not everyone thinks that a really really long, really really safe (really really boring) life is the ideal. With the grand prize filling up your Depends in a nursing home in the last years of your superannuated existence.

There's an alternative mindset, such as that of people who willingly accept risk- police officers, fireman, athletes, the military, construction workers, people not well represented on musicians internet forums (why is that?) that take precautions and don't take unnecessary risks- but don't let fear keep them from going about their lives. That's what we're all going to have to do. 

Genuinely sorry that things are so bad in FLA.  

[Notes_Norton]

2 hours ago, pinkfloydcramer61 said:

So there you have it. If you gig, you're being uncivilized and not compassionate. <...snip...>

Genuinely sorry that things are so bad in FLA.  

Sorry if I didn't make myself clear. I did not mean people who gig, I meant people who go out in public without wearing a mask and protecting their fellow citizens from a possibly lethal or organ damaging disease are uncivilized and not compassionate.

It's a simple thing to do that could minimize this disease. And it's not only the fatality, I read where a huge percentage of survivors, young and old alike end up with permanent brain, lung, heart, kidney and other major organ damage. We had a guy around here, healthy in his 40s who could dive to 60' and stay down for about a minute before running out of air. Now he can't make 30' on one breath. He teaches skin/scuba diving and will no longer be able to do that. It's a serious disease.

Thanks for your concern about the situation in Florida.

Notes

[Phil O'Keefe]

On 7/7/2020 at 5:19 AM, Newman2020 said:

This is totally off topic, but I think I saw an unboxing  video by you once.

It's quite possible. There are a few of them out there.

 

[leftyjay]

I'm really not surprised that I got these messages from many of my gigs saying they have decided to not have entertainment through September, and possible indefinitely.  They mentioned if I find other gigs, to take them. But, there is nobody playing anywhere around here. Every bar has stepped back on their inside occupancy. So, they shut down music again. Now, I'm sure it may be a better situation in your city. But Florida is a Cluster**ck at this time.

[daddymack]

SoCal essentially the same...got a query if I would play outside for a much smaller crowd for about 25% of my usual....

I almost bit, but then I realized a) they don't have an outside stage, b) it can be unbearably hot here at night c} I would need to bring my own PA, Lights...for $50?

I want to play, but I'm not doing $200+ worth of work for $50.

[leftyjay]

the two Elks clubs I play at asked me back, for a discount, and they are indoors. I said no. It wasn't a week after that, I heard they both shut down due to positive covid cases to the officers. Even the commander and his wife got the virus. They called me back and said they will stay closed.

I have one real nice Golf & Country Club with a nice dining room and dance area. The golf course is open, but the inside is closed indefinitely. They had carry out, but decided to shut it all down.

Good news...After nearly 3 months of fighting with the DEO, I finally got some unemployment benefits. I didn't get all the weeks I missed, but I did get 4 weeks worth so far. It took 5 emails to DEO, calling the local Representatives in my area, and contacting my local TV news channels. You also have to upload your Venues info, Contracts, 1099s from last year, and last years taxes, plus earning from Jan-Feb-Mar of 2020. You cant get it through regular unemployment, but they offered a Pandemic Care Act, which enabled "gig" workers and self employed. I think it runs out the end of July, unless they extend it. I think they will be extending it as the pandemic may shut more things down in the coming weeks/months.

[ggm1960]

We got home today from our vacation where we rode the bike just under 3300 miles through 8 different states. We had our annual party on the 3rd of July where our house, up on the hill above the river, has a great view of the fireworks display the boat club has every year. We had a really good band we'd hired play. My wife and I jammed a bit as did some other friends. We had record attendance last year (around 100) but this year was down to around 60 and the fireworks were cancelled. We left on the 5th and have been out until today.

My wife and I have a gig coming up on the 26th at a place about 30 miles east and she's also got us booked for a gig at a place on the Lake of the Ozarks for early August where we have friends with a house on the lake that we stay with a couple times a year. It may be a while before I can get back to work on our backing tracks.