Members techristian Posted February 12, 2011 Members Share Posted February 12, 2011 "end of human civilization as we know it is about 35" years away" A new TIME article on Raymond Kurzweil No matter how fast computers become, and how much memory they will have I personally don't think that they will ever have a soul or any "free will" of their own, but Ray thinks differently. Check it out. http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2048138,00.html Dan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members blue2blue Posted February 12, 2011 Members Share Posted February 12, 2011 I saw that episode of "I've Got a Secret" when it aired, actually. That Mrs. Chester Loney really got them going. She's also referred to by name in a Firesign Theatre recording, as "Mrs. Chester A. Loney," IIRC. Talk about yer singularity. I didn't remember where the Firesign Theatre was from -- as with so many of their references, they're just kind of floating around in the back of your head. I didn't remember the show until reading that, though. It was the description of his analog computer that clicked it, no puns intended. I used to pour over the Heathkit catalogs and I was definitely intrigued by the elaborate mechanical computers that coexisted with the electronic logic kits on the same page or couple of pages. And then mention in the article of LBJ's first grade teacher confirmed the recollection. Maybe it's not so weird that I saw it. In junior high, I watched TV sometimes 12 or more hours a day. I'd wake up in the middle of the night and sneak the cheap portable in my bedroom on. Thank heaven I discovered girls a year or two later.) Ray has kind of a dark view of where electronic intelligence will take things. Of course, he's also one of the guys who's probably got one of the best overviews of the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Bookumdano2 Posted February 12, 2011 Members Share Posted February 12, 2011 ... I'd wake up in the middle of the night and sneak the cheap portable in my bedroom on. .... No such luck for me. When I was a kid, all three tv stations signed off at midnight. Anyway, the article seems on target. Can't wait for that iHal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators MrKnobs Posted February 12, 2011 Moderators Share Posted February 12, 2011 Sigmoidal curves always look exponential at the start. Then, you find the asymptote and there always is one. Still, the Turing test will be passed. Computers might or might not become conscious, but from the perspective of an outside observer there will be no distinction. I think there's enough room in the leg up before the curve inflects to get to that point. Terry D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Jeff da Weasel Posted February 12, 2011 Members Share Posted February 12, 2011 Still, the Turing test will be passed. Agreed. Within our lifetimes, I'd be willing to gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Philter Posted February 12, 2011 Members Share Posted February 12, 2011 I don't see self-awareness as being some certain point on a scale of processing power. I think computers could have infinite processing power and still not be self-aware. They're not living things and therefore they do not have any reason to be concerned with self-interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members rasputin1963 Posted February 12, 2011 Members Share Posted February 12, 2011 .....then you start to wonder whether our computers are evolutionary outgrowths of our own. The way animals will, over time, grow camouflages or shells, beaks or eyes or tails. "Homo Computerus", anybody? It's only humans who arbitrarily draw a distinction between organic and inorganic material... That paradigm has served us well, but Nature may have stratagems up her sleeve that we cannot predict--- or even believe, at this juncture. How many of your grandparents have prosthetic hips and knees? Is that prosthesis now "a part of them"? They will reassure you that it is. LSD and Pot and Transcendental Meditation taught many baby boomers how to think "in the Now Moment"..... in the "Eternal Now". Now we're starting to manifest that in literality. Generations X and Y have always wanted things "now"... It's starting to happen. [Tricky to the degree that we insist on manufacturing scarcity in a post-scarcity world.] One thing Kurzweil doesn't explicitly mention is the way other (seemingly unrelated) vectors impinge on the evolution of the human experience; Just when you're certain that D and E will follow C, you get broadsided by L and S. Like Wile E. Coyote in the Warner Bros. cartoons. As a footnote, I am reminded of Bill Hicks's quip: "We humans think we're special; we're a virus with shoes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members philbo Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 The thing that's sorta scary is when people will begin building mechanical soldiers - - they already have the remote controlled unmanned aircraft. At that point, there is no cost or penalty for assassination or any other war crimes, since it's just a machine doing what it's told. The only thing I'm sure of is that if someone believes they'll get away with it they'll sure as hell do it. Such is the hubris of 'chicken-hawk' warriors. I'm just glad K.Rove, G.Bush & D.Cheney were put out of power before this happened.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members techristian Posted February 13, 2011 Author Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 I don't see self-awareness as being some certain point on a scale of processing power. I think computers could have infinite processing power and still not be self-aware. They're not living things and therefore they do not have any reason to be concerned with self-interest. I agree! One thing Kurzweil doesn't explicitly mention is the way other (seemingly unrelated) vectors impinge on the evolution of the human experience; Just when you're certain that D and E will follow C, you get broadsided by L and S. Like Wile E. Coyote in the Warner Bros. cartoons. Yes, like a big gamma ray ! Dan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members flatfinger Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 So many science fiction stories have the artificial intelligence "discovering" that we humans are a threat ,; If these machines were so smart , they would realize that all that need be done is to just stand back and do nothing at all.... We'll remove the problem all by ourselves !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Kotch Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 I thought this was going to be about peak oil. Instead, it's just about the "rapture of the nerds". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Surrealistic Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 I don't see self-awareness as being some certain point on a scale of processing power. I think computers could have infinite processing power and still not be self-aware. They're not living things and therefore they do not have any reason to be concerned with self-interest.Defining "living" and defining "self-aware" aren't (IMO) quite as easy as your statement implies. Take a large bunch of organic stuff (proteins, amino acids, carbon, water etc) bound together in interesting ways and it's an animal. Take a large bunch of metallic, plastic and silicon stuff bound together in interesting ways and it's a machine. What is it about one of those that makes self-awareness possible for it and not for the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members the stranger Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 I thought this was going to be about peak oil. Instead, it's just about the "rapture of the nerds". Peak oil is a scam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Coaster Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 Peak oil is a scam. peak oil is a scam. and a lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Raymar Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 Most of us Americans aren't conscious! Watching the tube, eating crap, listening to crap, and unaware of what's going on in the world let alone doing anything about it. My old Atari STe is smarter and more aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members sh944 Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 All this and what pops into my head? The fact that I still get gassed over a Les Paul and tube amps. lol We are going to see a lot of fascinating things in the near and not so near future, but I can help but think it will be in synergy with life and not it's replacement. Gawd help us to see the folly of our path and the opportunities in our future. We sell our future short when we park our children in front of a tv rather than spend time with them. Computers and AI are the least of our problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members flatfinger Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 Peak oil is a scam. So why was BP out so far in the gulf , drilling deeper than ever before ????? Doesn't it seem somewhat logical that by this time in history , all the" low hanging fruit " fossil fuels have been taken ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Coaster Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 look into it yourself. you just may find that there is an artificial scarcity created by [EDITED BY DHS] but dont believe me - go find out for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members flatfinger Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 but don't believe me - go find out for yourself. Yeah , I'm not entirely convinced either way myself ; But it is a finite resource ( and a dammed important one at that ) so maybe if we slow consumption down a bit it wouldn't be such a bad idea ......................... Of course how to do it in a Geo-politically safe fashion is a big issue..... I'm also not a macro economics major either , but we do seem to send allot of capital off shore to exporter countries ..... Maybe if we kept more of that capital at home we could put it into infrastructure improvements ( and no ; not more highways !) If the Robots with their artificial logic can't help us , then it's time for the extra terrestrials to benevolently step up to the plate ( I just don't want the ones who show up with a book titled " how to serve man " ) !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Kotch Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 Is there going to be a computer that can pass a Turing test in the near future? Probably. Does that mean the computer is actually intelligent? Probably not, because in a Turing test you can manipulate the human beings so they behave like machines. This: Let's start at the beginning, when the idea first appeared. In Turing's famous thought experiment, a human judge is asked to determine which of two correspondents is human, and which is machine. If the judge cannot tell, Turing asserts that the computer should be treated as having essentially achieved the moral and intellectual status of personhood. Turing's mistake was that he assumed that the only explanation for a successful computer entrant would be that the computer had become elevated in some way; by becoming smarter, more human. There is another, equally valid explanation of a winning computer, however, which is that the human had become less intelligent, less human-like. An official Turing Test is held every year, and while the substantial cash prize has not been claimed by a program as yet, it will certainly be won sometime in the coming years. My view is that this event is distracting everyone from the real Turing Tests that are already being won. Real, though miniature, Turing Tests are happening all the time, every day, whenever a person puts up with stupid computer software. For instance, in the United States, we organize our financial lives in order to look good to the pathetically simplistic computer programs that determine our credit ratings. We borrow money when we don't need to, for example, to feed the type of data to the programs that we know they are programmed to respond to favorably. In doing this, we make ourselves stupid in order to make the computer software seem smart. In fact we continue to trust the credit rating software even though there has been an epidemic of personal bankruptcies during a time of very low unemployment and great prosperity. We have caused the Turing test to be passed. There is no epistemological difference between artificial intelligence and the acceptance of badly designed computer software. From here: http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/lanier/lanier_index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Kotch Posted February 13, 2011 Members Share Posted February 13, 2011 but dont believe me - go find out for yourself. There are two schools of thought on stuff like this. I belong to the one that thinks governments aren't actually competent enough to indulge in massive global conspiracies. For example, I seriously doubt your post was actually edited by the DHS, because even on a good day the DHS couldn't find its ass with both its hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Super 8 Posted February 14, 2011 Members Share Posted February 14, 2011 We don't need machines to become self-aware. We just need them to merge with humanity to extend and improve the quality of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Kotch Posted February 14, 2011 Members Share Posted February 14, 2011 I notice every time Ray Kurzweil comes out and makes an announcement like this, he pushes the estimated date back another few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Philter Posted February 14, 2011 Members Share Posted February 14, 2011 Defining "living" and defining "self-aware" aren't (IMO) quite as easy as your statement implies. Take a large bunch of organic stuff (proteins, amino acids, carbon, water etc) bound together in interesting ways and it's an animal. Take a large bunch of metallic, plastic and silicon stuff bound together in interesting ways and it's a machine. What is it about one of those that makes self-awareness possible for it and not for the other? Living things are autocatakinetic systems and machines are not. That's the difference. Living things are subject to thermodynamic law on a higher level than machines. Machines are human constructs - tools - while living things are examples of spontaneous order rising out of thermodynamic principles. Machines are a trait of humans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Anderton Posted February 14, 2011 Members Share Posted February 14, 2011 I notice every time Ray Kurzweil comes out and makes an announcement like this, he pushes the estimated date back another few years. He reminds me of the 30 Rock episode where the plane is stuck on the tarmac, and the pilot comes out and says "we'll be taking off in about half an hour." Then he comes out an hour later and says the same thing. Then he says it again later. Ray Kurzweil? I remember being impressed as hell by the K250 sampler when I first saw it. I was even quoted in ads as saying "It's amazing," which I did when I saw the demo. Then I got to play one months later in Holland after it was actually released, and it didn't sound the same; I could hear split points and such. When I brought this up to someone from Kurzweil, he said what I heard at the demo wasn't a real K250, but was playing back "samples" from a hard drive hidden by the tablecloth draped over the table where the K250 was being shown. Now, I never discount the "disgruntled employee" theory of bitching about your boss, but I never really trusted anything Ray Kurzweil said after that. I do believe non-human devices can have consciousness, but that's another topic altogether, and it's a very different type of consciousness compared to, say, plants or fleas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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