Members lug Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 But it's so easy to deal with absolutes..... Like the absolute assumption that printing money with no backing will create inflation.... I have heard some talk about a theory that a deflationary cycle is possibly on the horizon. In that case, our only hope is to print more money...QUICK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members catphish Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 At what point do you "stop time" and say: "here is the outcome"? You don't, that doesn't mean observable results do not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members wades_keys Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 I have heard some talk about a theory that a deflationary cycle is possibly on the horizon. In that case, our only hope is to print more money...QUICK! I think that pretty much sums up the thinking behind the stimulus package. If the money is all from loans, that could also reduce the risk of inflation. Currency devaluation could be an issue, but our dollar is effectively oil-backed and protected from excessive devaluation due to that, so we've got that cushion to work with as long as OPEC doesn't drop the dollar (a little diplomacy could go a long way there) We'll be alright as far as inflation, I'm pretty sure of that. Debt to China on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators ThudMaker Posted February 3, 2009 Moderators Share Posted February 3, 2009 But it's so easy to deal with absolutes.....Like the absolute assumption that printing money with no backing will create inflation....There's a track record for that thought process. Here's a good read on the subject in PDF format. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members catphish Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 With an issue like money and the economy, you'd need to explain everything. To explain ebb and flow of bodies of water, you'd need to explain the moon's orbit.This isn't a question about right or wrong. It'd be about measuring the effectiveness of your communication. You didn't qualify your statement with anything about the economy. You just said, "nothing is bad", which I said was an over simplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Brother Mango Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 I'll use the printing money idea. Right now, as we sit here today, I can say "printing money is a bad idea for fixing out economic troubles." Forget context and substantiation. I'm either going to be right or wrong. Can I prove it to you? No. Not knowing the result does not my statement "printing money is bad" wrong today. I'm not seeing the example of the oversimplification of "nothing is bad." You can sit here today and say that "printing money is bad" and I say that you won't ever be either right or wrong. That statement says nothing. Who is it bad for? Who is it bad for in 30 years?Who is it good for? Who is it good for in 30 years? What is the objective? Is the objective to print the money and look at all the pretty money all stacked up in a pile? Then, printing money would definitely meet that objective. But what are the consequences? Who'll gain and who'll be hurt by the consequences? How can the harm be diluted? There are more questions than answers in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members catphish Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 Yes it is still bad, it's just not as bad as the deaths of 1000 3 year olds. It's the morally correct decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Brother Mango Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 You didn't qualify your statement with anything about the economy. You just said, "nothing is bad", which I said was an over simplification. "Nothing is bad" is easy. We can play all sorts of games to twist anything horrible into something good. Is it bad to over-bake bread? Not for the birds if I scrape off the burned parts and throw the rest of the bread into the alley. We make up reasons all the time. So, it's more interesting to ask, "how effective is X within the context of stated objective Y?" The burned bread means that my family won't have toast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members catphish Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 I'm not seeing the example of the oversimplification of "nothing is bad."You can sit here today and say that "printing money is bad" and I say that you won't ever be either right or wrong. That statement says nothing.Who is it bad for? Who is it bad for in 30 years?Who is it good for? Who is it good for in 30 years?What is the objective? Is the objective to print the money and look at all the pretty money all stacked up in a pile? Then, printing money would definitely meet that objective. But what are the consequences? Who'll gain and who'll be hurt by the consequences? How can the harm be diluted?There are more questions than answers in this. All of the above questions show why "nothing is bad" is an over simplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members catphish Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 "Nothing is bad" is easy. We can play all sorts of games to twist anything horrible into something good. Is it bad to over-bake bread? Not for the birds if I scrape off the burned parts and throw the rest of the bread into the alley.We make up reasons all the time. So, it's more interesting to ask, "how effective is X within the context of stated objective Y?" The burned bread means that my family won't have toast this morning. I think what you're saying there's too much to consider when looking at a specific circumstance so let's just forget it and say, "nothing is bad". But that's an over simplification. Stuff is bad all the time when looked at in context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators isaac42 Posted February 3, 2009 Moderators Share Posted February 3, 2009 You're still sidestepping - your statement was historically incorrect for the US, but you've not manned up enough to admit it - not very good form... - georgestrings I could explain again, but it wouldn't change anything. I'd be saying the same thing, and you'd have the same objections. If I throw money down a rathole, that's a direct drain on my finances. If I'm still taking in money from other sources that exceeds the amount I'm throwing down the rathole, that means that my net worth might be increasing, but it doesn't change the fact that the money I threw down the rathole was a direct drain in my finances. Wars are like ratholes. If the US's finances improved during times of war, it doesn't change the fact that wars are ratholes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Brother Mango Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 . Exactly.That video and TBroom gave us no context. I could assume a context but that'd be more about me and what I stick into the conversation. Plus, I found that article that said that the gov't has no other choice--in the short run--other than to print money. And the article takes us through the writer's thought process. That video didn't offer anything except drama. That video is a splendid example of the "power of suggestion." He said absolutley nothing but got a bunch of people all worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members catphish Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 Exactly. That video and TBroom gave us no context. I could assume a context but that'd be more about me and what I stick into the conversation. Plus, I found that article that said that the gov't has no other choice--in the short run--other than to print money. And the article takes us through the writer's thought process. That video didn't offer anything except drama. That video is a splendid example of the "power of suggestion." He said absolutley nothing but got a bunch of people all worked up. To say it's "nothing" is you sticking stuff into the conversation. It's being just as dramatic as the guy in the video. It did show the increase of dollars in the economy over the last 100 years, roughly. I agree it didn't offer substantiation, and have said that from the get go. My problem, which you touch on, is that he didn't offer any alternative solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Jugghaid Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 And what if that 3-yr old grows up to commit his/her life to preventing such things from happening to anyone else?This is the kind of bizarre game we get into by trying to evaluate something as being good, or bad. The act itself is still bad. There is no way to paint it as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators isaac42 Posted February 3, 2009 Moderators Share Posted February 3, 2009 To say it's "nothing" is you sticking stuff into the conversation. It's being just as dramatic as the guy in the video. It did show the increase of dollars in the economy over the last 100 years, roughly. I agree it didn't offer substantiation, and have said that from the get go. My problem, which you touch on, is that he didn't offer any alternative solution. Did he even demonstrate that there's a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members catphish Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 Did he even demonstrate that there's a problem? Nope. Didn't even try. If you're not aware that there's a problem you probably shouldn't participate in the discussion. :poke: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bbl Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 I won't speak for it's validity, but here's some info: http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/skyrocketing-money-printing-warns-of-coming-inflation-disaster/ And here's a comment I thought was informative: "Please take a look at the real measures of money supply, M1, M2 and MZM. Currency in circulation is just the paper money. Most of our money is kept in savings and checking accounts. These accounts dwarf the currrency in circulation and the adjusted monetary base. The adjusted monetary base is basically the monetary policy of the federal reserve. When the first $350 billion was released last fall that is the spike in the chart shown by Glenn Beck. Its not a secret or a surprise, but it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators ThudMaker Posted February 3, 2009 Moderators Share Posted February 3, 2009 I won't speak for it's validity, but here's some info:http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/skyrocketing-money-printing-warns-of-coming-inflation-disaster/And here's a comment I thought was informative:........ Don't try posting links. People ignore them in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members wades_keys Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 I won't speak for it's validity, but here's some info: http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/skyrocketing-money-printing-warns-of-coming-inflation-disaster/ And here's a comment I thought was informative: "Please take a look at the real measures of money supply, M1, M2 and MZM. Currency in circulation is just the paper money. Most of our money is kept in savings and checking accounts. It's so informative that it destroys the point that the video was trying to make. He trots out the old "currency devaluation" saw. He fails to take into account other factors that may prevent currency devaluation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators ThudMaker Posted February 3, 2009 Moderators Share Posted February 3, 2009 It's so informative that it destroys the point that the video was trying to make. He trots out the old "currency devaluation" saw. He fails to take into account other factors that may prevent currency devaluation. Except that you have to believe that most of our money is in checking and savings accounts. With all the credit card debt/housing debt/job loss, it's hard to believe that most people have any real savings of any sort. Let alone those 401k's that aren't valued as much today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bbl Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 Except that you have to believe that most of our money is in checking and savings accounts. Why is that hard to believe? Call me the exception. Most of my money is in my checking account, not in my wallet or under my mattress. :poke: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators ThudMaker Posted February 3, 2009 Moderators Share Posted February 3, 2009 Why is that hard to believe?Call me the exception. Most of my money is in my checking account, not in my wallet or under my mattress. :poke:That doesn't take into account your personal debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMS Author Craig Vecchione Posted February 3, 2009 CMS Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Why is that hard to believe?Call me the exception. Most of my money is in my checking account, not in my wallet or under my mattress. :poke: No, he's implying that most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, with little cash at all. I tend to agree, based on the fact that the first sign of this downturn was so many defaulted loans....you lose your job or suffer any serious financial hit, and don't have substantial (at least 6mo) cash on hand, your house is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bbl Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 That doesn't take into account your personal debt. That has nothing to do with the money supply or the monetary base. Or your checking account. And btw, when you pay your bills, it goes into someone else's bank account, not into circulation as currency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bbl Posted February 3, 2009 Members Share Posted February 3, 2009 Money Supply: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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