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What amps of today do you think will be sought after vintage classics in 20 years?


mmmiddle

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i figure that since technology is on the brink of real exponential growth, there'll be a day when modelers will be able to emulate tube behavior well enough that we won't be able to hear a difference. once the tech is in place, it'll just get cheaper and cheaper until there's just no way for tube amps to compete.

 

this is all conjecture/speculation, though :idk:

 

that's not to say that i won't still be lugging around a 55lb amp in 20 years, just that i don't think they'll be as common as they are now.

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AxeFX of course
:o



20 years is definitely end of life for it. But then again, Prophesy is 10 year old tech and still selling.

I'll guess it does like the GP-8

Starts off real high, ends really low. Took the GP-8 and 100 about 10 years before the bigger drop. 20 years? may as well keep them since the return will be low.

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None of the above as amps will be obsolete. :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

troll bomb planted....wait....wait...they'll be here any minute now....

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i figure that since technology is on the brink of real exponential growth, there'll be a day when modelers will be able to emulate tube behavior well enough that we won't be able to hear a difference. once the tech is in place, it'll just get cheaper and cheaper until there's just no way for tube amps to compete.


this is all conjecture/speculation, though
:idk:

that's not to say that i won't still be lugging around a 55lb amp in 20 years, just that i don't think they'll be as common as they are now.



some things in nature can never be replicated and vacuum tubes are one of them. what we haven't seen yet is the boutique cottage industry tube manufacturers. it's coming, there's no need for it right now as tubes are still plentiful. China isn't about to give a {censored} about the environment any time soon.

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Hence the current hoarding.
:cop:

But seriously, what would keep tube amps from being just as popular in 20 years? Just curious , I'm clueless one way or the other
:lol:


3rd world countries finally banning tube production? Technology finally equalling tubes? Gangsta rap and teeny bop pop gaga are only music left, rendering real instruments irrelevant?

 

All good reasons tubes might be done with. If other countries stop mfg them, it's over for tubes.

 

Another reason might be energy costs. Tube amps are not the most efficient devices other than they can be a space heater too.

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some things in nature can never be replicated and vacuum tubes are one of them.

 

says who?

 

never is a hell of a long time.

 

some people said we'd never go to the moon (can of worms opened :lol:)

some people said we'd never fly

some people said we'd never....you get my point.

 

a tube is just an electronic device, it's not magic. there WILL be a point when technology provides us with small, cheap processors that can run the simulations necessary. it's only a matter of time, really.

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says who?


never is a hell of a long time.


some people said we'd never go to the moon (can of worms opened
:lol:
)

some people said we'd never fly

some people said we'd never....you get my point.


a tube is just an electronic device, it's not magic. there WILL be a point when technology provides us with small, cheap processors that can run the simulations necessary. it's only a matter of time, really.



I get your point but gas in a vacuum tube is not predictable is it? 1 and 0's are pretty predictable. how far has the fake fireplace come? I mean we're a genius species right?

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I get your point but gas in a vacuum tube is not predictable is it? 1 and 0's are pretty predictable. how far has the fake fireplace come? I mean we're a genius species right?

 

 

but before too very long, we will be able to compute all of the necessary permutations not too replicate completely tube operation, but to make you confused which is which. and once that is done, peace tubes, hello fake tubes with glowing lights in them "fo weal +1 super amewican vintage flavor!"

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there shouldn't be gas in your vacuum tubes (unless you bought em from joey dahlia :o) :lol:

 

go ahead and read through the radiotron designer's handbook and see if there is any mention of gas in a tube causing unpredictable operation. i haven't read the whole thing (who has), but my money is on there not being any mention of it. :thu:

 

in reality, one should be able to calculate how a given tube is going to behave in a given set of circumstances. to do so across a wide range of frequencies (like the ones guitars produce) would require massive processing power at high resolution. if you fudge the calculations for, say, 100hz increments you really reduce the processing power necessary, but you also lose accuracy in the simulation.

 

once the hardware gets where it needs to be, the software will come. one day, i'd like to be able to use a GUI to change component values on a schematic and hear the changes in real time. revalver III already does some of that, i think.

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a tube is just an electronic device, it's not magic. there WILL be a point when technology provides us with small, cheap processors that can run the simulations necessary. it's only a matter of time, really.

 

This is 100% true. In the near future, all the "ones and zeroes" will be chopped so fine and calculated so quickly that your ear won't be able to tell the difference. Just like how HDTV and fast refresh rates can dupe your eyes.

 

Of course, with all the cork sniffing that goes on in audiophile circles, I'm sure that there will be plenty of people who will be completely convinced that they can hear the difference. They'll fail every double-blind test, but they'll still claim that they can tell tubes from transistors (or microcontrollers in DSP mode) :lol:

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lots more electrons in a tube and the transformer iron does its hysterises thing, lots of math to model just on the physical layer !!! code away

 

 

if a tube is conducting 1 amp at 100 volts, how many more electrons will it have in it than a transistor conducting 1 amp at 100 volts?

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lots more electrons in a tube and the transformer iron does its hysterises thing, lots of math to model just on the physical layer !!! code away

 

I didn't say it would be easy :D

 

But THAT is where the new "industrial secrets" will be. Software will be massively complex and take a team of developers to incrementally move it towards the ideal. It will probably take decades. But it will happen.

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One question though is, while a tube amp is pretty damn complex, its pretty much nothing compared to the hardware in a processor. (At least in terms of being able to fix stuff.)

 

Will the fact you can fix an amp versus a computerized unit play a role in traditional amps sticking around?

 

Or will they get them so cheap and so good that you can handle your digital amp biting it and survive?

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One question though is, while a tube amp is pretty damn complex, its pretty much nothing compared to the hardware in a processor. (At least in terms of being able to fix stuff.)


Will the fact you can fix an amp versus a computerized unit play a role in traditional amps sticking around?


Or will they get them so cheap and so good that you can handle your digital amp biting it and survive?

 

 

Tube amps are actually pretty simple.

 

Digitized amps will become cheap and easy to fix. Well, they could be cheap and easy to fix. Chances are, even though the microcontroller that goes up in smoke only costs $4.79, I'll bet that the manufacturers will charge $300 for the software you need to load onto it, and they'll do everything in their power to make sure it can only be done by one of their authorized techs and not you.

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One question though is, while a tube amp is pretty damn complex, its pretty much nothing compared to the hardware in a processor. (At least in terms of being able to fix stuff.)


Will the fact you can fix an amp versus a computerized unit play a role in traditional amps sticking around?


Or will they get them so cheap and so good that you can handle your digital amp biting it and survive?

 

i suppose you could design them in such a way that the most expensive parts were replaceable (processor, for instance).

 

there's always going to be some analog components in the amp, though. can't make speakers move without some power dissipation. all of the hardware should be as reliable as a computer :idk:

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i suppose you could design them in such a way that the most expensive parts were replaceable (processor, for instance).


there's always going to be some analog components in the amp, though. can't make speakers move without some power dissipation.
all of the hardware should be as reliable as a computer
:idk:

 

Oh, I agree. In some ways as far as just flat out component failure digital stuff is probably more reliable. Or should be. :lol:

 

It just seems that touring, or even smaller shows, or hell, drinking and rocking out with buds, is a bit more hazardous than the typical computer has to handle.

 

But that's more designing things to survive. You're right.

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i suppose you could design them in such a way that the most expensive parts were replaceable (processor, for instance).


there's always going to be some analog components in the amp, though. can't make speakers move without some power dissipation. all of the hardware should be as reliable as a computer
:idk:

 

As far as consumer electronics go though, I would say that computers (as in Personal Computers) are the most shoddily built things ever. I would hope that amp manufacturers would ensure that the new amps are at least as robust as the current ones. With no 18-month refresh cycle to drive the industry and all..

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As far as consumer electronics go though, I would say that computers (as in Personal Computers) are the most shoddily built things ever. I would hope that amp manufacturers would ensure that the new amps are at least as robust as the current ones. With no 18-month refresh cycle to drive the industry and all..

 

if they're cheap enough to be disposable, who cares?

 

and believe me, there are PLENTY of amps on the market today that aren't built as well as your DVD player :lol:

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