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Billster

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Everything posted by Billster

  1. Buy my stuff on eBay! Yamaha TX81Z Roland Alpha Juno 1 Sequential Prophet 2000
  2. SOLD! Roland/Boss Dr. 550 Dr. Rhythm Drum Machine Roland TR-505 Drum Machine, modded with individual outputs Yamaha FB-01 FM Synthesizer
  3. on eBay: Nady 49R Guitar Wireless System SOLD! Also: Roland/Boss Dr. 550 Dr. Rhythm Drum Machine Roland TR-505 Drum Machine, modded with individual outputs Yamaha FB-01 FM Synthesizer
  4. All on eBay: Roland/Boss Dr. 550 Dr. Rhythm Drum Machine Roland TR-505 Drum Machine, modded with individual outputs Yamaha FB-01 FM Synthesizer Also: Nady 49R Guitar Wireless System
  5. Here's a handful of stuff on eBay: SOLD! Roland/Boss Dr. 550 Dr. Rhythm Drum Machine Roland TR-505 Drum Machine, modded with individual outputs Yamaha FB-01 FM Synthesizer
  6. Oh gee, how did I miss this well of misinterpretation... Yes, agree with everything. Funny too because the stock market is built entirely on faith. We have this system set up where everyone is borrowing money from each other and paying it back on interest. The entire market is built on the idea of popeye. If you give me a dollar today, I`ll give you a dollar and a dime on Tuesday. However, to take this one step further, we have borrowed more than the system can comfortably allow and the system is starting to crack. So at this point, its not about faith anymore, its about being practical. If your output exceeds your input, then your upkeep will be your downfall. The stock market is what's called a leading indicator. The state of the stock market indicates what is anticipated. I won't deny that there will be some difficult times for many people, but the fact is that we are at a time of historically low inflation, interest rates, and unemployment. So any increases in those areas are starting off below previous baselines. If interest rates go from near zero to 6%, yes that's a lot - but 6% is a lot lower in historical context than 12% or 18%. Same with unemployment. You could argue that there is a basic unemployment rate of 4-5%, consisting of people who can't work for reasons unrelated to the economy and people who just plain don't want to work. In that context, 6% unemplyment = about 2%. So while 8% might be a shock compared to what the last decade has brought, it is still historically average.
  7. right. I just wanted to temper the boosterism and deliberate misinformation that the broadcast media is encouraging. Buffett got 10%. MUFG got 10% for their reduced buy of Morgan Stanley. We will see if they also received a federal guarantee. We are getting a very controlled flow of information. Buffett is also buying actual stock, an ownership stake in the company. He's not just agreeing to take "toxic" loans off the books so the company can clear its colon (so to speak).
  8. Hyperstagflation Cute, but isn't that an oxymoron? "Hyper" implies the opposite of "Stagnant". It makes no sense. The idea that the entire global economy is going to become a banana republic is ridiculous. I'm not a materialist, but because the amount of material goods in the world is so staggering, you have to consider that we are just haggling about the price at some point. Yes, distribution can be a problem. But come on. Buffett is under water on G-S currently. But Buffett is looking longer than this week, month or year. The alleged share price of an asset is irrelevant if you don't intend to sell - what matters is the profit income generated by that asset. If you want to buy stocks right now, buy stuff that pays a quarterly dividend.
  9. McCain's plan to buy up mortgages makes me want to puke. I don't think you have to worry about McCain's plans being implemented...
  10. I think "willing" is going through a serious crisis. I think "able" will come around first, but consumers will be more conservative once the lending thing get straightened out. I think there will be a big drop in people moving from a "starter home" to larger digs, and people will be closely watching their wants vs. needs decisions.
  11. HA HA HA!!! Yep. I'm a Dave Ramsey type myself.... I'm still waiting for Lou Rukeyser to rise from the dead.
  12. A traditional mortgage is collateralized by the house. These re-packaged default swaps and mortgage-backed securities were a step removed from any tangible asset. They were also clearly over-valued. Now, the houses that underly these defaulted loans were overvalued too. The market is declining to a level that more closely reflects what things are worth in dollar terms. And really, is that McMansion worth $750,000? Is a Mercedes worth $80,000?
  13. To Sean: Why is that man shouting? He's inciting a social panic the same way over-zealous stock traders incite market panic. To BlueStrat: What also scares me is that the majority of congressmen meddling in this also appear to have no understanding of economics, and are just as prone to the panicky reactions of the un-educated constituents you mention. As for a fix, we can start by shooting Jim Cramer.
  14. Sean, I'll send you articles from Nobel Prize economists explaining how this will be resolved. Do you really believe that within the next two years people in developed nations will be eating squirrels and hardtack? Call me when the Dow hits ~0~
  15. As predicted the Bailout is having no effect. Markets are tumbling. ALL paper investments are gone other then Government backed securities but they ain't gonna be worth jack in a deflationary Depression that is most certainly imminent. This is global boys and girls and we need to get local to make sure there is food, shelter water near us that can be gotten on a local level. The bastards have taken us down and it's much worse the the last one. At least this time the people KNOW EXACTLY WHO CAUSED THIS and heads will roll for certain. I'm scared for my family. Dude. The stock market is not the economy. The economy functions on many levels, levels which may or may not be interpreted correctly by stock traders.
  16. Here's a few more "added incentives" The revised bill contains provisions ... The sweeteners include renewable energy tax incentives - for individuals and businesses alike - that have been on the table for several months and had a chance of passing at some point anyway. The bill also includes relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax, without which millions of Americans would have to pay the so-called "wealth tax." The revised bailout bill also includes a "Mental Health Parity" provision, which would require health insurance companies to cover mental illness at parity with physical illness. And here's a letter from a banker detailing some of the issues WBC raised. (link in pdf) It is extremely unclear how the government will price the problem real estate assets. Priced too low, the real estate markets will be worse off than if the bailout did not exist. Priced too high, the taxpayers will take huge losses. Without a market price, how can you rationally determine value?
  17. We're all very well educated and all, but it's still very difficult to get a grasp on all the issues involved with this. It is very complicated, which is also part of the problem. I think the basic problem is that there are "paper" assets not backed by any tangible asset. Step one is these zero-down and/or interest only mortgage loans. The idea was that with rising home values, after a few years paying interest only, the homeowner could do a cash-out refinance and use the equity from market appreciation to qualify a standard loan. Then housing prices went the wrong way Now you have a $300K loan on a $200K house. To make matters worse, the derivatives of these subprime mortgages ended up getting overvalued in their trading blocs, so now there are overvalued derivatives of defaulted mortgages, mortgages in turn that are not able to recoup through foreclosure because of the lower real estate value. When the value of paper assets more closely resemble the value of tangible assets we'll be better off. The "bailout" plan is to buy time for home values to stabilize, but there's no guarantee that they will reach the level of the over-sold mortgages of a few years ago any time soon.
  18. Separately, a lot of the problem is about over-valuing derivatives, and the resultant distortion when you re-assemble the package. You end up with un-collateralized loans. Combine that with equity imbalance caused by zero-down and interest-only mortgages sold into a declining real estate market. You have a lot of loans with more outstanding value than there are assets to recover.
  19. The 700B has nothing to do with the actual cost. It's about preventing panic. I mostly agree with the other stuff you said about the legitimate uses of consumer credit. And I'll agree the goal is to show support for the credit system and buy time for a sorting out. And that $700 Billion is basically a made-up number pulled from a hat. So if that's the case, why the rush to seal a deal? Why not make a "General agreement in principal to provide good-faith support" and allow the next Congress (after the election) to make the specific quantification? This would allow a more precise accounting of the problem loans, and also make a de facto referendum issue for the upcoming election, which is not just the president, but also the House of Representatives and 1/3 of the Senate. A quick deal now takes "economic referendum" off the ballot. Ya think that's why McCain wants to push for a quick passage?
  20. While not as pessimistic as Sean, I have serious reservations about the way this is being ram-rodded through congress like the force-feeding of geese to make foie gras. (How's that for an elitist metaphor? ) I'm reminded of an old joke about a businessman who kept selling 50% of his business to silent partners. Everybody thought they were getting 50% of the whole business, not 50% of his remaining 50% (25%, 12.5%) after the first split. Then when he sells the business, his silent partners come forth and ask for 300% of the business.
  21. I'm just hoping cooler heads prevail and somebody says "Wait a minute, we're throwing good money after bad in the space of a few weeks. Let's wait this out before we commit $700 BILLION" Where did that number come from anyway? If this problem is so complex (it is) how do we know that the repair job is a simple $700 BILLION? How is that determined in a matter of weeks, when it took years to get things so convoluted? Slow down, peeps.
  22. Any e-mail with embedded anything gets shot down on sight.
  23. Anybody who clicks through on e-mail like that deserves whatever {censored} they get. You think if WWIII started in Iran it wouldn't be on any TV station or news website you could look at?
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