Just Got An Email From Ron Paul

[Jugghaid]

Pure speculation on your part . . . . .kind of like the stock market. Unless you can back it up with facts that our economy would have just cruised along for 70 years without a Depression, I'll stick with the evidence that pre-FRB the economy was more chaotic.

 

 

All the Fed has succeeded in doing is delaying the inecitable and making it worse. By not allowing natural market corrections, we have ended up in the situation we are in now, with a massive multi-trillion dollar national debt and banks failing left and right.

 

The speculation is really on your part, assuming that the Fed has kept our economy stable as opposed to contributing to the chaos and massive debt we now have.

 

It has been used as a political tool by both parties to show growth when there is none, and to show booming false ecomonies when the fact is there are no assets to back up the paper that is our currency and the stock market.

[Jugghaid]

And just think what a mess the world would be in if we hadn't been successful in backing Nationalist China, overthrowing Castro, and in defeating Communist Korea and Vietnam! Er...wait... Hrm...also none of them were the Soviets... Ah well, we did help fight the Soviets in Afghanistan, and it's a damn good thing we backed the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, otherwise that country would have gone to pot as well! Ah, but at least Grenada is safe from Communism...right? Did anyone pay attention after we left? It's still not communist, right? I mean, people still live there and stuff I'm assuming...

Exactly.

[Jugghaid]

You want evidence of what would have happened if history had happened differently? This is a serious request on your part? Precisely what evidence could possibly be available for an alternative history of the world? I'm honestly wondering what you think Juggs could provide in the way of "facts" about a historical timeline that doesn't exist...

But that makes his argument seem correct even when it's not. Asking to prove the unproveable, while ridiculous, gives the appearance of being correct.

I could just as easily ask him to prove what would have happened to our economy if the Fed hadn't been established on the assumption that it would be doing better.

[Jugghaid]

Entirely accurate I'm afraid. Markets, being beast of human psychology, all too easily succumb to panics, over confidence, and herd thinking. All through western economic history, the boom-bust cycle of capitalism is a big part of the story. The smart guys were the ones who were able to read the tea leaves and get out of the markets before they crashed, then buy up the bargains, repeat. What the Fed has managed to do is keep the cycles more under control, less severe, turn down turns into recessions rather than Depressions, and space them further apart. Look at the mess we've been in for the past few years- deregulated markets in commodities, IT stocks, insurance, and housing led to huge bubbles that popped, sometimes hurting the little guy, always hurting the investing class, and usually inhibiting growth elsewhere. Show me a deregulated market in the US in the past 20 years, and I'll show you where greed and market panics have brough it down.

 

 

 

Can't do it. Try and show me a market that is not regulated in this country.

[Rowka]

Let's just hope that George finds that $8000, then we should all be fine.

 

22818

[T. Alan Smith]

One ham-n-cheese sub and the whole thing is over.

[RSBro]

One ham-n-cheese sub and the whole thing is over.

Ham and cheese?

Can't we at least get a little smoked turkey or somethin??!?

[Rowka]

Aren't terrorist pirates kosher?

 

 

22819

[ThudMaker]

All the Fed has succeeded in doing is delaying the inecitable and making it worse. By not allowing natural market corrections, we have ended up in the situation we are in now, with a massive multi-trillion dollar national debt and banks failing left and right. The speculation is really on your part, assuming that the Fed has kept our economy stable as opposed to contributing to the chaos and massive debt we now have. It has been used as a political tool by both parties to show growth when there is none, and to show booming false ecomonies when the fact is there are no assets to back up the paper that is our currency and the stock market.

You can keep claiming that, but the fact remains that pre-Fed there were how many Depressions? How many since the Fed? How many per every 20 years? "All the Fed has succeeded in doing is delaying the inecitable and making it worse." I'm the one speculating? No thanks. Show some actual evidence.

[ThudMaker]

You want evidence of what would have happened if history had happened differently? This is a serious request on your part? Precisely what evidence could possibly be available for an alternative history of the world? I'm honestly wondering what you think Juggs could provide in the way of "facts" about a historical timeline that doesn't exist...

Thanks for proving that all Juggs can do is speculate that the Fed sucks.

[ThudMaker]

Aren't terrorist pirates kosher? 22819

Only if you eat them on unleavened bread.

[King Kashue]

Thanks for proving that all Juggs can do is speculate that the Fed sucks.

 

Interesting that you read a post pointing out how irrational your request was and this was your conclusion...

 

Also interesting how you provided no actual answer to my question...

 

Show some actual evidence.

 

Again, you're asking for evidence for an alternative timeline...

 

What the hell is he going to do, transfer his consciousness across quantum dimensions to read a history book on "Earth without the Fed"?

 

 

You're telling him that he needs to prove you wrong, otherwise you're right...It's argument from ignorance, you're just hiding it well...

 

 

 

I tell ya, you've got one sound {censored}ing argument here Thud. Two major fallacies and avoiding direct questions...Start calling people mother{censored}ers and we'll rename you Thudhawk!

[Ender_rpm]

Can't do it. Try and show me a market that is not regulated in this country.

I said "deregulated" not Unregulated. There is a difference.

Airlines- Deregulated, did well for a while, then needed help post 9/11, despite overall higher ridership (is that a word? )

Energy- Enron, etc

Oil- the recent bubble was of an entirely speculative nature, had nothing to do with supply/demand

Telecoms- Worldcom, etc

Stock Market- Too many crashes to keep up with

Real estate may be a novelty- gov't intervention in the form of pushing sub prime loans and backing them through Fannie and Freddie creates a whole market full of unregulated securities which of course ens up blowing up in our faces.

[ThudMaker]

Post Hoc Ergo propter hoc...A classic fallacy! " This magic charm keeps bears away! " How do you know? "Well, you don't see any Bears do you?" Again, you're asking for evidence for an alternative timeline... What the hell is he going to do, transfer his consciousness across quantum dimensions to read a history book on "Earth without the Fed"? You're telling him that he needs to prove you wrong, otherwise you're right...It's argument from ignorance, you're just hiding it well...

Nope. I asking him to provide evidence that the economy over the last century would have been better without the Fed. I'm asking him to provide evidence that the Fed has made things worse than they would be without the Fed. I'm sorry you can't grip the fact that in the 1800's there were Panics every 20 years and in the 20th Century there was only 1. You know. That century during which the Fed operated. What I want is actual hard evidence that the Fed is a POS. Otherwise it's just a classic Ron Paul is Jesus rant. I pointed to evidence that suggests the Fed did it's job in the 19th Century by comparing it to the 18th Century. You've had a rough time on HCBF lately. First, I caught you posting a link to wiki and now, even though I have posted evidence that supports my side, you are supporting the side that hasn't backed up anything with any evidence. I could give a rats red butt if there is no other alternate Universe time line. I expect some real hard evidence as to why the Fed is and always has been a POS. Can you do that? If not, you're violating an idea you have always held dear in debate, which is backing up your opinion with facts. I haven't seen any.

[Jugghaid]

You can keep claiming that, but the fact remains that pre-Fed there were how many Depressions? How many since the Fed? How many per every 20 years? "All the Fed has succeeded in doing is delaying the inecitable and making it worse." I'm the one speculating? No thanks. Show some actual evidence.

 

 

Show some evidence? Look at the false economy we have been living under for the last 20 years due to the feds manipulation of the markets. Look at the foreclosure rates. Look at the bankruptcy filings. Look at the vastly overvalued financial markets that are bursting left and right.

 

If that isn't evidence enough for you, nothing will be apparently.

 

It's not the end of the world, and neither were any other depressions in history, but it sure ain't good.

 

and yes, there were more "depressions" pre-fed. There were also more wars pre-nixon. Did Nixon prevent the wars? Do you think maybe it had something to do with the mad swings during and following the industrial revolution? there are so many factors that go into causing a depression that attributing the lack of one to the Fed is ridiculous at best. Think it has anything whatsoever to do with the post-wwII boom? The manufacturing economies up to the 70s? The tech boom of the 80s? Specifically the computer industry? You don't think any of these things caused the (relatively) stable economiy we have enjoyed for so long?

 

Then we got the dot-com false economy. And we were so afraid to let the bubble burst we artificially inflated the markets and dumped non-monetized cash into the economy over and over again and extended credit WAY beyond any reasonable level with the lowest interest rates in history. Until now, things are going into overload and the assets can't sustain the money in circulation. Who did that exactly? Oh, I know. The Fed and the Treasury department.

[ThudMaker]

Show some evidence? Look at the false economy we have been living under for the last 20 years due to the feds manipulation of the markets. Look at the foreclosure rates. Look at the bankruptcy filings. Look at the vastly overvalued financial markets that are bursting left and right.

Foreclosure rates are being put on the Fed? That's interesting considering what a personal responsibility type of guy you are. Bankruptcy filings? Business is good for you.

[King Kashue]

Nope. I asking him to provide evidence that the economy over the last century would have been better without the Fed. I'm asking him to provide evidence that the Fed has made things worse than they would be without the Fed. I'm sorry you can't grip the fact that in the 1800's there were Panics every 20 years and in the 20th Century there was only 1. You know. That century during which the Fed operated.

 

Again, post hoc ergo propter hoc. It's a fallacy and you're treating it like it's a proof.

 

I pointed to evidence that suggests the Fed did it's job in the 19th Century by comparing it to the 18th Century.

 

I'll just assume that's a typo.

 

even though I have posted evidence that supports my side, you are supporting the side that hasn't backed up anything with any evidence.

 

I haven't voiced support for either side. I'm pointing out that what your doing is hitting Juggs with an argument from Ignorance and using a post hoc fallacy as your evidence.

 

I expect some real hard evidence as to why the Fed is and always has been a POS. Can you do that? If not, you're violating an idea you have always held dear in debate, which is backing up your opinion with facts. I haven't seen any.

 

First, I haven't claimed the Fed is a POS.

 

Second, a correct conclusion does not dictate your argument is logically sound. You can both be right and still be hitting Juggs with logical fallacies...All it means is that your fallacious logic isn't what demonstrates you're right.

 

 

Comparing the 20th century US to the 19th century US and saying "ooh look, no panics" isn't evidence. You're ignoring the vastly different natures of the economies (factors that go way beyond the Fed) and the different role the US played globally...

 

You're comparing the economy of a young, comparatively isolated national economy to the diverse, international economy of a global superpower.

 

 

To say something like "See, the fed has prevented something like the 1837 Bank Crisis from happening again" is just grossly simplistic...You can no more point to one of a dozen major factors and say "That's the important bit, I'm sure of it" than can Juggs say "We'd definitely be better off without the Fed"...

 

 

Both are unprovable...And the issue is not that Juggs' claim isn't provable, it's that yours isn't either, but you're treating it as if it is...

[Jugghaid]

Nope. I asking him to provide evidence that the economy over the last century would have been better without the Fed. I'm asking him to provide evidence that the Fed has made things worse than they would be without the Fed. I'm sorry you can't grip the fact that in the 1800's there were Panics every 20 years and in the 20th Century there was only 1. You know. That century during which the Fed operated. What I want is actual hard evidence that the Fed is a POS. Otherwise it's just a classic Ron Paul is Jesus rant. I pointed to evidence that suggests the Fed did it's job in the 19th Century by comparing it to the 18th Century. You've had a rough time on HCBF lately. First, I caught you posting a link to wiki and now, even though I have posted evidence that supports my side, you are supporting the side that hasn't backed up anything with any evidence. I could give a rats red butt if there is no other alternate Universe time line. I expect some real hard evidence as to why the Fed is and always has been a POS. Can you do that? If not, you're violating an idea you have always held dear in debate, which is backing up your opinion with facts. I haven't seen any.

you can't prove a negative you know that. That's why your argument is bull{censored}. What I can do is show you exactly how the Fed has made major mistakes that are harming our economy.

Your claim is that the Fed has done a great job, and your evidence is that we haven't had a depression since the 30's . However you are somehow seriously counting them as the only factor in that equation. Your problem is with cause and effect. You are stating the reason we havne't had a dpression it due to the Fed. I ask you to back up that assertion.

So far as how the Fed has been seriosuly detrimental to our economy?

That's gonna take another post and we may need some more bandwidth.

I'll be right back.

[Rowka]

Just because it's post hoc doesn't, by default, mean that it's not propter hoc.

 

I'm just sayin'...

 

22820

[ThudMaker]

 

Both are unprovable...And the issue is not that Juggs' claim isn't provable, it's that yours isn't either, but you're treating it as if it is...

Sorry. The Feds job is to regulate the ebb and flow as best as possible. The 20th Century ebb and flow was less than that of the 19th. You can claim it's a fallacy, but if someone wants to show me how the Fed is an awful instrument of government, then I'm going to have to be shown where they haven't done the overall job of limiting the lows. Unless you think that everybody in the US would be happy to be hit with a Depression for 4 years about every 20. That doesn't make any sense to me.

 

And yes, the centuries was a typo.

[King Kashue]

Just because it's post hoc doesn't, by default, mean that it's propter hoc. I'm just sayin'...

Yes...that would be the definition of the fallacy

[Rowka]

psst, see my edit...

 

 

22821

[King Kashue]

Again, post hoc ergo propter hoc. It's a fallacy and you're treating it like it's a proof. Comparing the 20th century US to the 19th century US and saying "ooh look, no panics" isn't evidence. You're ignoring the vastly different natures of the economies (factors that go way beyond the Fed) and the different role the US played globally... You're comparing the economy of a young, comparatively isolated national economy to the diverse, international economy of a global superpower. To say something like "See, the fed has prevented something like the 1837 Bank Crisis from happening again" is just grossly simplistic...You can no more point to one of a dozen major factors and say "That's the important bit, I'm sure of it" than can Juggs say "We'd definitely be better off without the Fed" ...

 

[King Kashue]

psst, see my edit...

Ah, you've turned it into a statement refuting a claim that no one's made...

How constructive

[Jugghaid]

Foreclosure rates are being put on the Fed? That's interesting considering what a personal responsibility type of guy you are. Bankruptcy filings? Business is good for you.

Partially, yes. I very much believe in personal responsibility. But one of the biggest factors in forclosures is the drop in prices in the housing market. this can be directly attributed to the Fed manipulating interest rates for short term gains in the mortgage markets. Long term it was a terrible idea.

Bankruptcies? The massive extension of credit that the Fed dictated is ECATLY what caused this. While I do believe in personal responsibility, I also believe you don't give a chlid a gun to play with. For {censored}s sake, I have over $250,000 available on credit cards right now. Granted I have less than $300 charged on all of them combined, but I'm not the average consumer. I deal with people every day who were running up their credit cards (their fault) but were then allowed to refinance their homes at 100% or 125% or in some cases 150% LTV to pay them off and secure them with a real asset. Banks love that {censored}.

Interest rates directly contribute to inflation and prices in the housing market. a 1/4 point move by the fed at the right time can be great for the economy, and 1/4 point move at the wrong time can be a disaster. This is exactly what we are looking at right now. All of the assumptions (incorrect ones BTW) by the fed, who expressed these findings to the mortgage and securities markets, told them that housing proces would continue to go up and up and up. That is why these loans were allowed. That is why bad loans were allowed. They figured that if people defaulted, the asset was workth more than the loan value so the bank would not be in any trouble.

HUGE error in judgment. HUGE. And the Fed is the institution most culpable in advising this course of actions to not only lending institutions, but consumers as well.