Ivan (the Hurricane)

[Loves_LPs]

Tornados may blow, but Hurricanes suck! I have to admit, I'm really getting tired of these freaking things! Ivan currently (Sat. night) has sustained winds of 167 MPH, with gusts in excess of 200 MPH If this sucker edges over just a little to the right of the guesstimated track, there won't BE a Tampa the next day.

[Guest Anonymous]

Yea... I was kind of wondering about you folks (Kenny's out on one of those pimples surrounded by water I think). I have a couple of customers who wrote me and said to hold off their shipments cause their address might not exist by the time the package arrives.

[agedhorse]

I was always wondering... how come there are so many "manufactured houses" and trailers in areas where the wind blows so hard?

[Loves_LPs]

Mark, Friday, my wife took her car in for some work, and they originally told her it would be done by Monday or Tuesday. Instead, it was ready this morning. Do you suppose they were worried about liability for it on their lot?

 

LOL, that reminds me -- you know what a redneck divorce and a hurricane have in common? Someone's gonna lose a trailer!

[fingerpicker]

I live in Lee county-just south of where Charlie Directly hit. We were w/o power for five days, I lost 2/3rds of my gigs,(that is all I do), and there are heaps of debris still all over the place which could be thrown about even without a direct hit.

You're getting tired of these hurricanes?!!!Yeah us too....

[Loves_LPs]

I hear you! Hopefully Ivan's gonna miss you guys this time!

[Kennykeys]

Most Caribbean islands have difficulty keeping the infrastructure "up to date."

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Grenada is so far south that they don't get many storms passing by. They hadn't had a direct hit from a hurricane in 50 years. A large amount of growth and construction has taken place in that time. Ivan's sustained winds were only around 120 mph, the storm was fairly small in diameter and it passed quickly, but the island simply couldn't handle it. Now 70% of houses/buildings have roof damage (or worse), most electricity and phone lines are down (possibly three months for the electricity to be restored island wide), the water system has many damaged pipes, and their very viable agriculture (nutmeg and other spices) has been leveled.

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Jamaica got lucky as the storm took a jog and skirted the south coast yesterday (the eye of the storm actually has to be very close in order to receive the top sustained winds.) Still plenty of wave and rain related damage.

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Caymen Islands are taking a direct hit at this very moment. But now the damn thing has increased to 145-155 mph sustained (100 mph doesn't really cause all that much catastrophic damage on land....for instance, I've sat on the porch watching an 80 mph storm pass directly overhead, and have been out driving around in a 100 mph storm, but once above 120 mph, then things on land start to move around.) The Caymens have been a bit more "well off" over the years (with many more substantially constructed houses, for instance) so hopefully, they will fair a bit better, but a 150 mph storm passing at a slow 9 mph is still going to tear things up a LOT.

(The worst storm I've gone through was 160 mph, direct hit, the island rode the eye wall for about 6 hours, real big mess.)

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Looks like this one will pass by Cuba's western tip, then maybe on to the Florida panhandle.

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This present 20-30 year upswing in hurricane activity is only about half way finished.

[fingerpicker]

100 mph doesn't really cause all that much catastrophic damage on land....for instance, I've sat on the porch watching an 80 mph storm pass directly overhead, and have been out driving around in a 100 mph storm, but once above 120 mph, then things on land start to move around.

 

A 80-100mph wind gust can topple a shed . When you already have a bunch of garbage everywhere from a previous storm, it's not going to take a 120mph wind to move it around. I am talking firsthand after seeing Francis move crap around and it was maybe 50MPH winds down here.

 

It's not just the wind. Gabrielle(only a tropical srorm) moved rv's and parked cars with it's damaging rain over here. Look at the rain damage from GASTON of this year..

[tomhole]

When hurricane Isabel rolled through MD last year, she was just a borderline hurricane at 75 mph. Probably wasn't even that by the time she made it to my house. We had at least a thousand trees down in my neighborhood alone. Yup, a thousand. Neigborhood of about 500 homes. The guy driving his truck down route 4 that had a tree fall on his truck would probably argue against your hypothises. Same with the myriad folks that had a nice 100 year old oak bench installed in their living room quickly followed by a swimming pool.

 

The storm surge on the windward side of the Chesapeake put neighborhoods under 12-15' of water. And that was a wimpy storm. I can only watch on TV to see what a cat 4 beast can do. Unimaginable.

 

Tom

[Craig Vecchione]

Originally posted by Loves_LPs Tornados may blow, but Hurricanes suck! I have to admit, I'm really getting tired of these freaking things! Ivan currently (Sat. night) has sustained winds of 167 MPH, with gusts in excess of 200 MPH If this sucker edges over just a little to the right of the guesstimated track, there won't BE a Tampa the next day.

'

 

Winds that big are in the range of tornados! And those only last a minute or so in any one area and move on....this hurricane is lazy and loves to hang around grinding everything. In some respects it might be better if it makes landfall sooner rather than later, as a trip across the warm Gulf will only strengthen it.

 

I've got bad memories as a kid watching the utter devastation of the Mississippi coast by hurricane Camille. I was way up in New Jersey but even we got creamed by the remaining tropical depression that was hundreds of miles south. This hurricane is eerily similar in its path, and a lot stronger than Camille was at this point.

 

Here's some history

[Kennykeys]

Originally posted by fingerpicker A 80-100mph wind gust can topple a shed . When you already have a bunch of garbage everywhere from a previous storm, it's not going to take a 120mph wind to move it around. I am talking firsthand after seeing Francis move crap around and it was maybe 50MPH winds down here. It's not just the wind. Gabrielle(only a tropical srorm) moved rv's and parked cars with it's damaging rain over here. Look at the rain damage from GASTON of this year..

Well I did say "catastrophic damage." Collapsing sheds and flying garbage aren't what I'm referring to. Wood frame houses being completely destroyed, roofs leaving concrete block structures with possible wall damage, large heavy objects like containers being blown around....that's what I'm talking about.

And yes, it's a common occurrence for flood waters to float cars, whether from ocean surge/waves, or from rain.

[Kennykeys]

 

Originally posted by tomhole When hurricane Isabel rolled through MD last year, she was just a borderline hurricane at 75 mph. Probably wasn't even that by the time she made it to my house. We had at least a thousand trees down in my neighborhood alone. Yup, a thousand. Neigborhood of about 500 homes. The guy driving his truck down route 4 that had a tree fall on his truck would probably argue against your hypothises. Same with the myriad folks that had a nice 100 year old oak bench installed in their living room quickly followed by a swimming pool. The storm surge on the windward side of the Chesapeake put neighborhoods under 12-15' of water. And that was a wimpy storm. I can only watch on TV to see what a cat 4 beast can do. Unimaginable. Tom

 

I guess I was talking from a Caribbean perspective and forgot about the tree problem of the northern climes. Part of this must be the fact that most of those trees have rarely been subjected to anything more than an occasional strong gust for their entire lives.

Yes, 100 - 120 mph can certainly knock down some trees. And in wooded North America (combined with frame houses), a storm of this strength could be considered catastrophic.

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Storm surge is a funny thing....sometimes it develops and encroaches on certain areas onshore, sometimes it doesn't (or is minimal.) Many theories abound.

[tomhole]

 

Originally posted by Kennykeys I guess I was talking from a Caribbean perspective and forgot about the tree problem of the northern climes. Part of this must be the fact that most of those trees have rarely been subjected to anything more than an occasional strong gust for their entire lives. Yes, 100 - 120 mph can certainly knock down some trees. And in wooded North America (combined with frame houses), a storm of this strength could be considered catastrophic. . Storm surge is a funny thing....sometimes it develops and encroaches on certain areas onshore, sometimes it doesn't (or is minimal.) Many theories abound.

 

 

Kenny,

 

I think that had a lot to do with it. Not a lot of hurricanes make it up the Chesapeake, and sitting out on the back porch through the night that Isabel arrived, I was not impressed with her power. Until I drove (or tried to drive) around the neighborhood the next day. Most of the trees that fell were uprooted, not broken off. I think the length of the exposure was more at fault than the intensity. I only had 1 large pine fall accross our road. No big deal. Many others had 4 or 5 large trees in their house. My firend had one very large oak fall in his living room while he was watching TV. Scared the bejesus out of him. Ever since then, we have had an unusual number of trees down during normal thunderstorm activity.

 

I was just looking at the Ivan track and it surely does look eerily similar to Camille. It has another 4 days in the warm gulf to strengthen. If anyone reading this is anywhere near the predicted landfall, please leave. Come up to MD and I'll gladly provide you with myriad frosty cold beverages of your choosing. Pizza, too. You'll have to help me paint my kitchen cabinets, though. In all seriousness, though, get the hell out of there. Ivan looks evil.

 

Tom

[Craig Vecchione]

 

Originally posted by tomhole Kenny, I think that had a lot to do with it. Not a lot of hurricanes make it up the Chesapeake, and sitting out on the back porch through the night that Isabel arrived, I was not impressed with her power. Until I drove (or tried to drive) around the neighborhood the next day. Most of the trees that fell were uprooted, not broken off. I think the length of the exposure was more at fault than the intensity. I only had 1 large pine fall accross our road. No big deal. Many others had 4 or 5 large trees in their house. My firend had one very large oak fall in his living room while he was watching TV. Scared the bejesus out of him. Ever since then, we have had an unusual number of trees down during normal thunderstorm activity. I was just looking at the Ivan track and it surely does look eerily similar to Camille. It has another 4 days in the warm gulf to strengthen. If anyone reading this is anywhere near the predicted landfall, please leave. Come up to MD and I'll gladly provide you with myriad frosty cold beverages of your choosing. Pizza, too. You'll have to help me paint my kitchen cabinets, though. In all seriousness, though, get the hell out of there. Ivan looks evil. Tom

 

 

The tree problem is caused by damaged root systems. The uprooting effect breaks and weakens some roots and pulls the tree up from the ground to windward. If it's not enough to topple during that storm, the next one within a few years might be. It takes years for a root system to repair and re-establish itself, and for old trees, it often never recovers.

[J the D]

Fortunately Ivan is expected to diminish in strength in the Gulf for two reasons. First, Bonnie, Charley and Frances sucked a lot of the heat out of the Gulf water and it is comparatively cool which will sap some of the energy. Second, there are strong westerleys, especially at altitude, which will bring a strong shearing effect. That's why they are forecasting a Cat 3 landfall somewhere in West Florida.

[Loves_LPs]

Per the NHC web site:

 

Cat 1 = 74-95 mph ~ damage to mobile homes, shrubs, trees

Cat 2 = 96-110 mph ~ damage to roof surfaces, windows, doors; trees down

Cat 3 = 111-130 ~ structural damage to residences

Cat 4 = 131-155 ~ complete roof failure, major structural damage

Cat 5 = 156+ mph ~ complete building failures

 

According to the NHC and others, wind damage increases exponentially with speed increases, not linearly.

 

Another isssue, is that first the hurricane pushes (for hours) from one direction, and then, when the eye crosses over, it pushes (for hours) from the opposite side. It's sorta like wiggling a lose tooth.

 

In addition, if sustained reported winds are "only" 165 mph, there are constant gusts well in excess of 200 mph.

 

Tornados (with winds up to 300+ mph) which are spun off from hurricanes create their own, added damage.

 

As the result of sitting through numerous hurricanes and tropical storms in many areas, I don't take even 50 mph winds lightly. Just recently, we had two guys killed here as a result of "tropical force" winds. One was hit by flying debris, the other had a tree fall on his porch. In both cases, the wind speed was way below 74 mph.... But both guys are still just as dead.

[Guest Anonymous]

 

Originally posted by Craigv The tree problem is caused by damaged root systems. The uprooting effect breaks and weakens some roots and pulls the tree up from the ground to windward. If it's not enough to topple during that storm, the next one within a few years might be. It takes years for a root system to repair and re-establish itself, and for old trees, it often never recovers.

 

One thing I heard about trees... in general: Tropical trees (which have evolved in common hurricane areas) v.s. more northern latitude trees (oak, maple, pine, etc...) is that tropical trees better weather hurricanes because they quickly shed most of their leaves before taking a pounding from the wind that could comprimise their roots, there-as the more northern type trees hang on to their folage till the bitter end.

 

I've heard that much of the damage to buildings isn't so-much from the high wind speeds, but more-so from sudden changes in air pressure, or tremendous low pressure (like a wing effect) with that much wind blowing over the building. The wind doesn't so-much blow the roof off as it sucks the roof off.

 

Anyway... Right now, I'm glad I live here... where we just wear out a couple of snowshovels (shoveling snow) and a chain saw chain (cutting firewood) every winter.

[agedhorse]

Anybody know what to expect around the New Orleans area? My wife is set to travel to a conference there the end of the week and there's lots of talk but no real information from those who live around there.

[Guest Anonymous]

 

Originally posted by agedhorse Anybody know what to expect around the New Orleans area? My wife is set to travel to a conference there the end of the week and there's lots of talk but no real information from those who live around there.

 

Well... most of New Orleans is below sea level, right? Kind of like Holland, right? Bunch of dikes and levees keeping the water and dirt seperated? I don't know what the dikes and levees are engineered to deal with, but it seems like engineers draw the line at 100 year occurances. I'd say if Ivan plows into New Orleans full tilt boogie, it's gonna get pretty soggy there.

 

I dunno though?

[J the D]

ANdy:

 

Ivan is a big storm and the Big Easy will have at least Tropical Storm force winds. New Orleans is largely below sea level which is not a good place to be when the storm surge from a Cat 5 storm (20 feet+/-?) is coming. We saw some of the video from Cuba tonight. Definitely some very nasty stuff.

 

If the trip to New Orleans is not absolutely critical I'd stay home. If she is not going to arrive until Friday or so she needs to keep in contact with someone in New Orleans to see if they have things like electrical power and running water. Many activities are likely to be cancelled.

 

Jim

[agedhorse]

Thanks Jim.

 

Are they well prepared to deal with the kinds of things that are likely to happen in a storm like this. We don't see this here on the west coast.

[SoundMan]

I'm starting to get a little worried myself, we just might get a little wet from this one.

 

SoundMan

[Kennykeys]

 

Originally posted by agedhorse Thanks Jim. Are they well prepared to deal with the kinds of things that are likely to happen in a storm like this. We don't see this here on the west coast.

 

 

I remember an analysis from a couple of years ago when another storm was threatening New Orleans, and they figured flooding would be a MAJOR problem.

[Kennykeys]

 

Originally posted by Audiopile I've heard that much of the damage to buildings isn't so-much from the high wind speeds, but more-so from sudden changes in air pressure, or tremendous low pressure (like a wing effect) with that much wind blowing over the building. The wind doesn't so-much blow the roof off as it sucks the roof off.

 

Correct. I had a good view of a small valley filled with houses during the 160 mph storm. It was still daylight, and was not raining much at all. You could see each gust of wind blow up the valley (moisture vapor and small debris marked the front of each wave.) First the leading edge would pass over a house, then about 20-30 ft. behind it the roof material would peel and curl up. I remember picturing those models where they blow smoke over a wing section and you get those reversed curly-ques over the trailing edge.

It was interesting watching....until I noticed in my own house that a 2x6 roof beam was bending sideways, upwards, and exposing about 4" of daylight between it and the top of the wall. Shortly thereafter, that section of the roof (corrugated zinc over ply) exploded and flew off.

[J the D]

 

Originally posted by agedhorse Thanks Jim. Are they well prepared to deal with the kinds of things that are likely to happen in a storm like this. We don't see this here on the west coast.

 

 

Yeah. They run like hell for (much) higher ground.