"Vintage" guitars - worth the cash?

[badshirt]

 

Originally posted by Burningleaves Buy a new firebird. Play many and pick a "singer".

 

 

This is definitely the overall plan. Once I run into one I love I'm sure I'll go for it.

 

I agree with the theory of people buying the axes they could never afford. There is a serious nostalgia w/ guitars (even for those of us born after 75'). Basically the "greats" of rock and blues played these instruments. Some of these axes may be the closest we can get to these times musically (since the music today just doesn't seem to have the same impact that hearing Led Zeppelin for the first time had on me - even in the 80s)

[Fernabulax]

what you say is true, however, like a stock, a guitar has a 'book' value and, as an asset, depreciates, offsetting the effect of inflation, over time, reducing its book to salvage value. Additionally, during that time the direct-replacement cost, due to ecomomies of scale (agile. sx), contribute to driving down book. Thus, the various subjective aspects of a vintage guit (feel, look, sound, etc) feed the frenzy. Buy lo, sell hi!

[jerry_picker]

 

Originally posted by badshirt This is definitely the overall plan. Once I run into one I love I'm sure I'll go for it.

 

 

When you do post pics!

 

(I have always wanted a 'bird V.)

[KirkHammett1]

I cant freakin believe the priceon 70s strats and even 60s mustangs now.

 

I'd like to own an old esquire before I die. Hopefully I can find a farmer that has one under his bed.

[Bbreaker]

There are vintage guitars that are worth the cash.

I wouldn't group a particilar make/model or year as valuable.

I once played a 1960 Gibson Les Paul Standard and wondered, "what's the big deal?" I wasn't impressed at all.

So are all 1960 LP Standards like this? I'd think not. Given the culture of today's vintage market, that '60 Standard I played could be valued at $200K.

There are unique vintage guitars made in limited numbers that I think are valueable but not on the 100's of thousands of $'s zone.

 

I played a mid 60's Gibson Johnny Smith that was incredible. Yet, it won't fetch the dollar amount of a Stratocaster from the same era.

 

Values are just escalated by sellers/dealers.

Most 70's American guitars are now vintage with insane price tags. These are the same guitars that Matt Umanov & George Gruhn considered to be garbage. Yet they market these instruments as, "the one"......or "find another". I've seen 1974 Telecasters go for $4995.00. If that's what they're worth, I have 2 of them to sell you.

[Frets99]

Originally posted by Bbreaker I've seen 1974 Telecasters go for $4995.00. If that's what they're worth, I have 2 of them to sell you.

 

Nah, I never pay more than $80 for a guitar!!!

[Bbreaker]

Originally posted by Frets99 Nah, I never pay more than $80 for a guitar!!!

 

Only if you have 2 coupons.

[badshirt]

 

Originally posted by Bbreaker There are vintage guitars that are worth the cash. I wouldn't group a particilar make/model or year as valuable. I once played a 1960 Gibson Les Paul Standard and wondered, "what's the big deal?" I wasn't impressed at all. So are all 1960 LP Standards like this? I'd think not. Given the culture of today's vintage market, that '60 Standard I played could be valued at $200K. There are unique vintage guitars made in limited numbers that I think are valueable but not on the 100's of thousands of $'s zone. I played a mid 60's Gibson Johnny Smith that was incredible. Yet, it won't fetch the dollar amount of a Stratocaster from the same era. Values are just escalated by sellers/dealers. Most 70's American guitars are now vintage with insane price tags. These are the same guitars that Matt Umanov & George Gruhn considered to be garbage. Yet they market these instruments as, "the one"......or "find another". I've seen 1974 Telecasters go for $4995.00. If that's what they're worth, I have 2 of them to sell you.

 

 

Nice...I think I'll have to pass.

 

But you are right about dealers escalating the market. Also, once Joe Blow, who may have been a casual player in the 60s and 70s, figures "holy moly, my guitar is worth a down payment for a house" he'll post it at that just to see if it goes. Its similar to what the real estate market is doing. Until people stop buying the older guitars at higher values the prices will be on the rise.

[2manband]

It seems to me that there's a point in every instruments life where it stops depriciating as a "used" instrument and starts appreciating as a vintage instrument. As a collector - that's the right time to buy. As a player, if it's a quality instrument and the sound and feel are right for you, the age (new or old) doesn't matter.

 

Seems that the point of minimum value conicides with the musical era that's considered least "cool" at any particular time. Right now - that era seems to be the 80's. Anything that reminds people of spandex, big hair, and dudes wearing eyeliner tends not to command an astronomical sum. However, it was an era of lots of guitar innovation, and there were a lot of good quality instruments made. The expensive stuff from that era is starting to really pick up in value (think original EVH licensed anything) and the rest of the good quality American made stuff won't lag far behind.

[walt0915]

The market is not driven by dealers, its driven by buyers. Guitars are not in the least bit unique, you can look at furniture, rugs, pottery, figurines (they're statues!) and a variety of other trinkets that have intrinsic value nowhere near the current market price.

 

As long as BUYERS demand these things and are willing to pay big bucks for them, the market exists and that is what they are worth.

 

If you aren't into collecting, don't buy vintage guitars. If you have one, keep it - it will be worth more if you wait (you may have to wait a long time). If you are into collecting, don't buy based on your guitar-player instincts, but follow design - get excellent examples of design. In 50 years whether that LP plays like a dream won't matter as much as its finish.

[jerry_picker]

 

Originally posted by walt0915 The market is not driven by dealers, its driven by buyers.

 

You may be right.

 

If the supply and demand paradigm holds, then supply is fixed (or decreasing) for true vintage items, leaving demand to drive the market.

 

Without any demand, even rare stuff doesn't rate a high price (poodle-doo from '32).

[Bruce Bennett]

 

Originally posted by jerry_picker I agree with 2., 3. , and 4. With #1, there is the argument that many of the instruments from that era that have survived have done so because they were worth maintaining and taking care of. However, I have also seen the argument that the truly good ones almost NEVER come up for sale for the same reason, and it is the second tier (or worse) that circulate in the marketplace. As for #5, that is certainly true for late-50's Les Pauls and pre-CBS Strats and Teles. However, "guitars on the whole ( as seen over the last 20 years) have HELD their values much better than Stocks" appears to mean that all guitars, new and used, sold since 1986, taken as a whole, have held value better than stocks. I sincerely doubt that. It is closer to the truth that the vast majority of those guitars have at best held their original street value not corrected for inflation, and the reality is that most are at or below one-half of their new selling prices. Pull up a 50-year chart on the S&P500 and it becomes very clear that the mid-1980s index levels (around 200) are at about one-sixth of today's index levels (around 1300). With the exception of a few models that were already 20-30 years old in 1985, almost no guitars can claim that sort of performance, and certainly not "guitars on the whole". Look at values on mid-60's Fender Jaguars: They sold new for about $350 and go for about ten times that now. However, the S&P 500 was at about 100 in 1965, and is at about 1300 now, thirteen times. (Both stocks and the Jag beat inflation: the buying power of a 1965 dollar was like 6 dollars in 2006.) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

as for your ideaology on #1

I think you have forgoten that many of the 70s models are now on the market due to deaths which means that some of them ( we all know guitars are nto created equal) ARE the great ones that were being held onto by their owners that have now died and so they DO come back up in the markets. and if a guitar was WORTH fixing maintaining back in 1970 when it was cheap.. then it was a good guitar period.

 

as for #5 I apoligize I should have clarified that I meant VINTAGE guitars IN 1986 which means guitars made BEFORE 1970. I don't consider a guitar VINTAGE until it's near the 30 year mark..

in1986 guitars made in 1970 were not considered Vintage. they were just cheap used guitars.

What the 80s guitars will do in the future .. still remains to be seen.

I also would like to point out that there are LOTS of guitar MODELS that have gone up to 10Xs their original values which is certainly higher than your 6 x values of your S&P500 stocks. of course LIKE stocks many guitar MODELS never go up. at present there really is no classifcation like the S&P500 for guitars.

 

[Bruce Bennett]

Originally posted by Fernabulax in ecomomics, there's something called the 'greater fool' theory: when an asset has a run up exceeding intrinsic value, it's due to passing it on at a profit to an even greater fool until, one day, the last fool gets stuck with it prior to its decline in market value. Thus, gentlemen, the vintage guitar...

 

a poorly constructed theory,,

there will always be another "sucker born every minute" as PT Barnum proved.

 

"Things" are worth what the person in front of you, is willing to pay period.

you can not explain the guy that can "sell" ice cubes to Eskimos with this theory any better than you can explain why the guy that has the bucks, is willing to pay 400,000.00 for a 1959 Les Paul ,when it's CLEARLY only worth about 2K in parts, materials and labor by todays pricing.

 

there will ALWAYS be the exception.. ( or the "sucker"/fool however you wish to say it)

 

the market will always have anomialies and many folks will get rich and others will lose...

money is like a river. it has tides and currents and eddies. it will circulate in it's own good time and directions, not matter what we may try to make it do.

question is..

Will "I" be the one that gets his (the fool's) money.. Or will YOU be the one that gets his money, THIS TIME!

[pzkpfw]

I don't know much about actual vintage guitars, but I'd love to get a Classic '50s Strat simply because it's a remake of one of the guitars that started everything, in it's original design. It'd be even cooler to have one of the ACTUAL original strats, although I could never justify spending as much money on it as I would have to. But some people do justify it.

 

It'd just be cool to own a guitar that is, for lack of a better term, "innocent," and simple, and has simply what is needed. Sure, a newer guitar sounds ALOT better, but if I were to sit down and play a start straight out of the 50's, I'd be playing it for a different reason, and actually probably enjoy it more.

[jerry_picker]

 

Originally posted by pzkpfw I don't know much about actual vintage guitars, but I'd love to get a Classic '50s Strat simply because it's a remake of one of the guitars that started everything, in it's original design. It'd be even cooler to have one of the ACTUAL original strats, although I could never justify spending as much money on it as I would have to. But some people do justify it. It'd just be cool to own a guitar that is, for lack of a better term, "innocent," and simple, and has simply what is needed. Sure, a newer guitar sounds ALOT better, but if I were to sit down and play a start straight out of the 50's, I'd be playing it for a different reason, and actually probably enjoy it more.

 

 

I have the MIM Classic 50's Tele and it rocks.

 

Part of the mojo of actual early 1950's Teles is that they may have been bought new by someone who didn't even have a TV set yet and definitely never heard of Chuck Berry or Buddy Holly. They are relics from another world.