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x-post: I have a question.


allan grossman

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Hypothetical situation.

 

You're standing next to a trolley track. On the track are five guys who are not paying any attention at all and there's a trolley coming right at them. If the trolley hits the five guys they will certainly die.

 

Next to you you find a lever. If you pull the lever it will divert the trolley to a side spur where only one person is on the track. If you pull the lever the five people will be spared but the one person on the side spur will certainly be killed.

 

You do not know any of the people in this exercise.

 

Do you pull the lever?

 

Decide which you'd do and then read on :)

 

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V

 

Okay, hypothetical situation #2.

 

You're standing on a foot bridge above the trolley track mentioned in the first scenario. The same five morons are standing on the track and won't move. If they trolley hits them they will certainly be killed.

 

Next to you is an 800 pound man you have never met. If you push him off the foot bridge onto the track the trolley would hit him but he's big enough to stop the trolley. He will certainly be killed but the five guys on the track would be spared.

 

Do you push him off the bridge? Why or why not?

 

Compare your answer with the first question and discuss if you like.

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Aahh... That old chestnut 'risk perception and decision making'.

 

 

Consider the following:



Problem 1.

Imagine that you a faced with a life or death choice. The US has safely quarantined all 600 people infected with an unusual virus, but is now certain that they will all die without some treatment. Resources are severly limited and the choice must be made between two scientific programs.


Program A: If adopted, 200 people will be saved for certain.

Program B: If adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved.


People choose A over B by a ratio of three to one, showing a preference for the certain outcome. Now consider the same scenario with a different set of choices.


Program C: If adopted, 400 people will die for certain.

Program D: If adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that no people will die and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die.



People choose D over C by a ratio of four to one, showing a preference for risk. However, note that end results of A and C are exactly the same - 200 people alive, 400 dead - as are those of B and D. According to classical theories of rationality, one cannot both prefer A to B and D to C.

 

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Since the average trolley is going to weigh well over 20000 pounds, there's no {censored}ing way an 800 pound man is going to stop it.

 

Secondly, trollies do not have levers from rail switching on the streets.

 

 

Lastly, the question is actually is the life of one person who isn't a moron worth less than the life of five people who are morons?

 

The answer is no.

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