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John Sayers

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Posts posted by John Sayers

  1. For 6,000 years we preserved food with salt. 100 years ago someone thought of refrigeration, the first refrigerator cost twice as much as a car. Now we all have refrigerators. Hopefully one day oil wells and coal mines will be as much of the past as salt mines are.

     

    That's one story - the other is whether we are contributing to the change in climate. Let's not confuse the two.

  2. But the point is 'more facts'. If he has more facts and can prove them and prove that they discredit the existing consensus, then he should present them within a scientific forum and get them accepted there. .




    As he said - he intends to publish his NEW research with NEW evidence. He makes the point that his new evidence is important as it will affect the new EPA regulations dealing with CO2 and his new research shows that CO2 doesn't have the influence on climate we have previously imagined it to have.

    His frustration is that MSM will not print his new research, despite his impressive credentials so he has turned to Bloggs to get it out to other scientists and the public in general. It can take months - years to get a paper accepted and published in science journals.

  3. Dean - Roy Spencer has just released more research. Here is his conclusion:

    The evidence continues to mount that the IPCC models are too sensitive (produce too much global warming). If climate sensitivity is indeed considerably less than the IPCC claims it to be, then increasing CO2 alone can not explain recent global warming. The evidence presented here suggests that most of that warming might well have been caused by cloud changes associated with a natural mode of climate variability: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.


    I am posting this information in advance of publication because of its potential importance to pending EPA regulations or congressional legislation which assume that carbon dioxide is a major driver of climate change.
    Since the news media now refuses to report on peer-reviewed scientific articles which contradict the views of the IPCC, Al Gore, and James Hansen, I am forced to bypass them entirely.

    We need to consider the very real possibility that atmospheric carbon dioxide - which is necessary for life on Earth and of which there is precious little - might well be like the innocent bystander who has been unjustly accused of a crime based upon little more than circumstantial evidence.


    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/19/new-paper-from-roy-spencer-pdo-and-clouds/#more-3721


  4. Ok Dean - here's Monckton's answer to your question in his reply to John McCain I posted previously in this thread.

    You have said: "We stand warned by serious and credible scientists across the world that time is short and the dangers
    are great."
    Sir, the implication of your quoted remark is that the "serious and credible scientists" who are warning us that "time is short
    and the dangers are great" outnumber the equally "serious and credible scientists" who are not warning us of anything of the
    kind. The reverse is the case. A recent survey (Schulte, 2008) of 539 peer-reviewed scientific papers published since January
    2004 and selected at random using the search term "global climate change" reveals that not a single paper provides any
    evidence whatsoever that "time is short" or that "the dangers are great".
    The notion of imminent, catastrophic climate change is a fiction that is almost wholly absent in the scientific literature.
    Indeed, the only papers that predict catastrophe are written by a tiny clique of closely-connected, extravagantly-funded,
    politically-biased scientists with unhealthily close political and financial connections to certain alarmist politicians in the
    party that you nominally oppose.
    Suppose, ad argumentum, that the UN's exaggerated climate-sensitivity estimates, proven in the peer-reviewed literature and
    in the unfolding temperature record to be fantasies wholly unrelated either to scientific theory or to observed reality, are true.
    Even then, the disasters imagined by the UN's climate panel and by certain politicians are unlikely to occur. Since the UN's
    estimates are indeed exaggerations, and are known to be so, the only potentially-"credible" basis for the alarmism reflected
    in your speech falls away. In the scientific literature, there is no "consensus" whatsoever to the effect that anthropogenic
    "global warming" will be "catastrophic".
    It is vital that you should understand the extent to which the UN's case for panic action is founded not upon theoretical
    proofs in climatological physics, nor upon real-world experimentation (for nearly all of the parameters necessary to the
    evaluation of climate sensitivity are not directly measurable, and their values can only be guessed) but upon computer
    models - in short, upon expensive guesswork.
    However, using computer models to predict the climate, even if the input data were known rather than guessed, cannot ever
    be effective or accurate: for the climate, in the formal, mathematical sense, is chaotic. The late Edward Lorenz (1963), in the
    landmark paper that founded the branch of mathematics known as chaos theory, proved that long-run climate prediction is
    impossible unless we can know the initial state of the millions of variables that define the climate object, and know that state
    to a degree of precision that is and will always be in practice unattainable.
    Why is such very great precision necessary? Because it is the common characteristic of any chaotic object, such as the
    climate, that the slightest perturbation, however minuscule, in the initial value of even one of that object's variables can
    induce substantial and unpredictable "phase transitions" - sudden changes of state - in the future evolution of the object.
    Unless the initial state of the object is known to an unattainably high degree of precision, neither the timing of the onset, nor
    the duration, nor the magnitude of these phase transitions can be predicted at all. Accordingly, the predictions go off track
    very suddenly and dramatically, but ineluctably.
    The UN [iPCC, 2001], accepts that the climate is "a complex, non-linear, chaotic object", and, consequently, that "long-term
    prediction of climate states is impossible". Yet it then attempts the impossible by making predictions of climate sensitivity
    that are already being proven exaggerated by the failure of temperatures to rise as the computer models had predicted (or,
    recently, at all).
    All of the climate models relied upon by the UN predict that the distinguishing characteristic or "fingerprint" of
    anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing as opposed to any other forcings is that in the tropical mid-troposphere, about 6 miles
    up, temperature over the decades should rise at two or even three times the rate of increase observed at the tropical surface.
    However, this predicted "hot-spot" over the tropics is not observed in any of the tropospheric temperature datasets since
    reliable measurements were first taken by balloon-borne radiosondes 50 years ago.
    Douglass & Knox (2006) and Douglass et al. (2008) have established that the absence of the "hot spot" predicted by the
    UN's models is real, and is not (as was suggested by Thorne et al., 2007) a measurement error or artifact within the
    estimated uncertainty interval of the observed record. Lindzen (2008) estimates that in the absence of the "hot-spot" the
    UN's estimate of climate sensitivity must be divided by at least three. Thus, making this adjustment alone, a doubling of
    carbon dioxide concentration would raise global temperature not by 6
  5. Dean - Dr Roy Spencer is one of our leading climate scientists. He heads the NASA Aqua satellite project which is the latest and most sophisticated climate satellite we have. It is the result of his research and the data gained from the satellite that he used to draw his conclusions regarding climate change.

    http://www.weatherquestions.com/Roy-Spencer-on-global-warming.htm

    I suggest you read his views.

  6. 1. We've gotten onto the score board in a single century, which is nothing. And there are more and more people who want to live our lifestyle moving forward and more people being born all the time.

    2. How do you know that that percentage increase isn't important?

    3. We are producing those molecules on a continuing basis year after year, and that will go up and it will continue to increase in rate if we don't do something about that.




    Yes Dean - but is it all bad?? Plant nurseries feed additional CO2 into their greenhouses to increase growth - they pump the air to 1000pmm.

    For 2000 years in the Bronze Age, during the Holocene Climate Optimum (which is called an "Optimum" because warmer is
    better than cooler), temperature was up to 5

  7. Just to get the facts straight, Sea level has been rising since the end of the last Ice Age 10,000 years ago. It is 400 feet higher now than it was then. The rate of increase has averaged 4 feet per century. Yet in the 20th century, when we are told that "global warming" began to have a major impact on global temperature and hence on sea level, sea level rose by just 8 inches.

    If all the ice in the arctic melted sea level would not be affected. Floating ice melt does not alter sea levels.

  8. Thanks. Even if one doesn't believe that global warming is man-made, there's still so many reasons to do these things...including economics.

     

     

    well yes and no Ken - I'm right into alternative energy systems as my previous posts will confirm, but I'm not about to be snowballed into supporting economic destruction based on a lie.

     

    If you are really interested in the science then read this 4 part open letter to John McCain from Viscount Monckton published yesterday. It presents the pseudoscience that has been presented to us under the label "Climate Change/Global Warming"

     

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/10/an_open_letter_from_the_viscou_1.html

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