Will record companies emphasize demographics that can't download?

[Goldtopper]

In these last dying years of the selling of "recorded music" will the record companies start to emphasize artists whose demographic audience is not likely to download for free?

 

For instance: Miley Cyrus - her audience is mostly girls under 10 years of age who barely know how to use a computer, let alone go into a Torrent search. Also certain types of music which may appeal to lower income inner-city neighborhoods which don't have high usage of internet connections. Likewise, there's a lot of folks over a certain age who aren't comfortable with computers/internet at all, and prefer to simply buy a CD.

 

On the opposite end, you've got the stereotypical young white males who tend to have more computer and internet access, who tend to listen to stuff like guitar-based rock (or whatever)

 

 

 

 

Will the record companies increasingly emphasize genres that lean toward the "internet unsavy" and away from such stuff as "guitar rock" in order to minimize the demographics of who can download for free?

[sabriel9v]

 

For instance: Miley Cyrus - her audience is mostly girls under 10 years of age who barely know how to use a computer, let alone go into a Torrent search.

 

 

These are actually the people most likely to download. The new, up and coming generations are much more computer savvy than the older ones.

 

 

On the opposite end, you've got the stereotypical young white males who tend to have more computer and internet access, who tend to listen to stuff like guitar-based rock (or whatever)

 

 

I thought "stereotypical white males" listened to Eminem, Dr. Dre, Three Six Mafia, and other rap?

I don't feel record label emphasize genres that lean towards the internet savvy. They push and promote the material they feel sells well and has passed a proven hit formula. I feel that in terms of marketing, labels will continue to use the interweb because we live in a digital age. And that's not changing anytime soon.

[Goldtopper]

These are actually the people most likely to download.

 

You ARE aware that the average age of most of the fans of bubblegum artists like Miley Cyrus, Jonas Bros, are on avg about 8 years old? They are VERY young and can barely use a computer at that age. I have a child of my own that age, so I have an idea.

 

They push and promote the material they feel sells well

 

Well yea, the key word is "sell". Not stuff that tends to get's downloaded for free.

 

Lookit the current Billboard top 10 album sales:

 

http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/charts/chart_display.jsp?g=Albums&f=The+Billboard+200

 

I see not one album that appeals to "stereotypical young white males" (except maybe, Kid Rock)

[soundwave106]

I see not one album that appeals to "stereotypical young white males" (except maybe, Kid Rock)

 

Well, Coldplay's typical fanbase is a bit more than 8 years old. But, I've often wondered whether computer penetration is playing some part on what is charting.

 

Of course, Weird Al Yankovic had his first top 10 album ever a couple years ago, which kind of adds a dent to that argument.

[richardmac]

I don't think people will ever stop selling recorded music. But I do think that rack space for music will continue to shrink, until places like WalMart only stock the top 100 CD's. We're getting close to that now. And all the rest of the music will have to be purchased online. There will still be some specialty stores that sell CD's, though, but they're probably going to be in or near the cities.

 

I think the only demographic right now that doesn't download illegal music is maybe the 55+ demographic. There ARE older people who DO download illegal music, but percentage-wise, that's maybe the best group, I'm guessing... and that group is not known for buying a lot of music, in general.

 

Record companies are screwed. So they're going to only invest in artists with the highest probability of success, which means whatever sounds like what is working right now, which means people will get bored, which means less sales, which means trying to find an ever MORE sure thing, which means and so on and so forth.

[Goldtopper]

Coldplay's audience is mostly "adult female"

Link

 

Look at the rest of that Billboard album list:

 

1. Miley Cyrus: 8 yr old girls

2. Sugarland: older female country fans

3. Mamma Mia: middle aged females

4. Kid Rock: ????

5: Lil Wayne: urban hiphop

6. Coldplay: adult females (see above)

7. Camp Rock: same Disney kid audience as Miley

8. Nas: urban hiphop

9. Now That's #28: ????

10 Taylor Swift: teen female country fans

 

It seems like everyone BUT "stereotypical young white males" are buying albums. Does computer use affect what is charting? Will that influence Record companies decisions on whom they sign?

[sabriel9v]

 

Coldplay's audience is mostly "adult female" Link Look at the rest of that Billboard album list: 1. Miley Cyrus: 8 yr old girls 2. Sugarland: older female country fans 3. Mamma Mia: middle aged females 4. Kid Rock: ???? 5: Lil Wayne: urban hiphop 6. Coldplay: adult females (see above) 7. Camp Rock: same Disney kid audience as Miley 8. Nas: urban hiphop 9. Now That's #28: ???? 10 Taylor Swift: teen female country fans It seems like everyone BUT "stereotypical young white males" are buying albums. Does computer use affect what is charting? Will that influence Record companies decisions on whom they sign?

 

 

Goldtopper, you need to do some market research. I think your demographics are off.

[ddeerreekk]

 

Goldtopper, you need to do some market research. I think your demographics are off.

 

 

Sorry, but I think it's actually you who's off. Firstly, Miley Cyrus's fan base is very young, younger then you might realize. She's almost exclusively marketed on children's television networks and consequently her fan base is varied, but still very young. For instance, my two little cousins (who are 4 and 6) love her. I can imagine it goes even lower as well. These kids likely don't even have internet access, let alone know how to download illegally.

 

Secondly, I disagree with the comment about white males. It may be a bit of a location thing (as I'm in Canada), but being a white male myself I can say that this isn't the case among most white males in any age range. In fact, I don't know a single one of my peers that listens to any of the bands you mentioned (exclusively at least).

[zenfleshzenbone]

 

5: Lil Wayne: urban hiphop

 

BIG exception on this list.. Tha Carter I II and III are probably the some of the most pirated albums on the internet. I remember Tha Carter II comming out in high school. Everyone had it, nobody bought it.

[Goldtopper]

I remember Tha Carter II comming out in high school. Everyone had it, nobody bought it.

 

Do you mean a physical CD, copied + burned? Or pirate mp3 download?

 

(pirated CD's are big in the inner-city community, but I'm not so sure pirate mp3 downloads are - someone correct me if I'm wrong)

[sabriel9v]

 

Sorry, but I think it's actually you who's off. Firstly, Miley Cyrus's fan base is very young, younger then you might realize. She's almost exclusively marketed on children's television networks and consequently her fan base is varied, but still very young. For instance, my two little cousins ( who are 4 and 6 ) love her. I can imagine it goes even lower as well. These kids likely don't even have internet access, let alone know how to download illegally. Secondly, I disagree with the comment about white males. It may be a bit of a location thing (as I'm in Canada), but being a white male myself I can say that this isn't the case among most white males in any age range. In fact, I don't know a single one of my peers that listens to any of the bands you mentioned (exclusively at least).

 

 

So do you feel that younger children do not have the capacity to a) gain access to computers and b) learn how to download or get someone else to do it for them? Bear in mind, I don't give a {censored} about Miley Cyrus. But I know that her marketing team is selling not just music to young fans. She's got a whole line of other products to sustain her and her management team aside from her terrible cds.

 

And you're wrong. White people DO listen to rap. Why in the hell do you think anybody cares about rap in the first place (anybody corporate at least)? It's because white people purchase the music. Three Six Mafia would've have never gotten an Oscar if it wasn't for white people. I'm not saying that rap is all "stereotypical white males" listen to. But let's face it. White suburban kids have been funding the extravagant lifestyles of rappers like 50 Cent and Eminem for years.

[sabriel9v]

 

I remember Tha Carter II comming out in high school. Everyone had it, nobody bought it. Do you mean a physical CD, copied + burned? Or pirate mp3 download? (pirated CD's are big in the inner-city community, but I'm not so sure pirate mp3 downloads are - someone correct me if I'm wrong)

 

 

Not just people in inner city communities were pirating the Carter II.

[Goldtopper]

sabriel - I'm just going to ignore your posts from now on. I've seen you in similar discussions before, and IMHO you're either a well though out troll, or you just post generalizations without thinking.

 

Moving on, does anyone else know if the Carter II album was pirated mostly as burned CD's or illegal downloads? There's a BIG difference. Seeing that the album came out in 2005 - which is a HUGE amount of time for changes on the web - I would suspect it was mostly old-school CD piracy. Am I wrong?

 

 

And keeping the discussion on track... does anyone else think the record companies will be increasingly dissuaded from artists who appeal to a demographic which tends to be better skilled at pirate mp3 downloads?

[sabriel9v]

 

sabriel - I'm just going to ignore your posts from now on. I've seen you in similar discussions before, and IMHO you're either a well though out troll, or you just post generalizations without thinking. Moving on, does anyone else know if the Carter II album was pirated mostly as burned CD's or illegal downloads? There's a BIG difference. Seeing that the album came out in 2005 - which is a HUGE amount of time for changes on the web - I would suspect it was mostly old-school CD piracy. Am I wrong? And keeping the discussion on track... does anyone else think the record companies will be increasingly dissuaded from artists who appeal to a demographic which tends to be better skilled at pirate mp3 downloads?

 

 

You mean you're going to ignore my posts because you know you can't step into the debate ring with me. That's smart. Go ahead and flee now.

[ddeerreekk]

 

So do you feel that younger children do not have the capacity to a) gain access to computers and b) learn how to download or get someone else to do it for them? Bear in mind, I don't give a {censored} about Miley Cyrus. But I know that her marketing team is selling not just music to young fans. She's got a whole line of other products to sustain her and her management team aside from her terrible cds. And you're wrong. White people DO listen to rap. Why in the hell do you think anybody cares about rap in the first place (anybody corporate at least)? It's because white people purchase the music. Three Six Mafia would've have never gotten an Oscar if it wasn't for white people. I'm not saying that rap is all "stereotypical white males" listen to. But let's face it. White suburban kids have been funding the extravagant lifestyles of rappers like 50 Cent and Eminem for years.

 

 

No, I don't feel that a 4 year old has the capacity or knowledge to download music. In fact, I don't think they could even fathom how downloading works. Even if they did, they'd have trouble even figuring out where to find it. Never mind the fact that they can't use a keyboard or in some cases even read. Same idea goes for older children. I'm not sure of Miley's exact age ranges, but I'm pretty positive the majority of them couldn't or wouldn't go on the internet and download her music.

 

As for the second issue regarding white males, I can't really say anything for sure since, like I said earlier, it may be different where you are. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying what I've found to be correct. It's certainly nothing to get mad over and start some bs "internet tough guy routine". Obviously there is a big market for rap out there, but it just came off as a little ignorant to assume all white males listen to is Eminem, Dr. Dre, Three Six Mafia, and the like. You obviously have little grasp on what youth these days are listening to.

 

That being said, I don't want to get into a petty internet debate. If this is what you truly believe then nothing I say will change that.

 

-Derek

[zenfleshzenbone]

 

I remember Tha Carter II comming out in high school. Everyone had it, nobody bought it. Do you mean a physical CD, copied + burned? Or pirate mp3 download? (pirated CD's are big in the inner-city community, but I'm not so sure pirate mp3 downloads are - someone correct me if I'm wrong)

 

 

Good point.. I'd like to see the numbers on that. Most were probably downloaded, burned and copies of those burned cds.

[Bare Bones]

I'm not involved in the music industry, but I do have a marketing background. Internet penetration is over 80% of the population - those w/o access are usually very low income, very old or institutionalized (prisoners, etc. are counted in this estimation).

 

If you look at the iTunes top 100 songs, Miley Cyrus turns up 4 times. Jonas Brothers account for 2 of the top 10 songs. While these are paid downloads, I think if you can figure out 1, you can figure out the other. And it's not like 8 year old girls are driving to the mall and buying CDs. I assume it's largely parent driven, who most likely can find music online.

 

The fact is if record companies were to abandon artists that could be illegally downloaded, they would essentially be abandoning mainstream music, of which I assume are responsible for a large percentage of sales. I guess an argument could be made that record companies can dicate what is mainstream, but whatever they focus on (unless it's aimed at senior citizens) will be heavily downloaded.

[Goldtopper]

It looks like my header title is confusing. I tried to edit the title of this thread to "Will record companies emphasize demographics that don't illegally download?" but it only changes the heading within the post, not what appears on the "Music Biz" list of threads.

 

The intention was to discuss if record companies will stay away from artists that attract fans with good pirate-download skills.

 

 

 

Miley and Jonas bros occupying the top spots on iTunes is probably the result of mostly parents (30/40-something white males & females) doing the downloading.

 

I think if you can figure out 1, you can figure out the other.

 

Not sure.. do most of the iTunes crowd also know about torrents like IsoHunt and Pirate Bay? Do most of the iTunes crowd also go there, or very few?

[ddeerreekk]

 

I'm not involved in the music industry, but I do have a marketing background. Internet penetration is over 80% of the population - those w/o access are usually very low income, very old or institutionalized (prisoners, etc. are counted in this estimation). If you look at the iTunes top 100 songs, Miley Cyrus turns up 4 times. Jonas Brothers account for 2 of the top 10 songs. While these are paid downloads, I think if you can figure out 1, you can figure out the other. And it's not like 8 year old girls are driving to the mall and buying CDs. I assume it's largely parent driven, who most likely can find music online.

 

 

Good point. Considering Miley's fan base, it's clear there is a good deal of parental involvement in how their children obtain their music (whether it be downloading illegally, legally, or purchasing physical cd's from stores. I still think that it's much more likely that these young girls (or their parents) are getting it legally.

[Bare Bones]

Here is the RIAA's demographic purchase profile from 2007 (PDF):

 

Purchase Demographics

 

If we assume 15-29 year olds are the primary illegal downloaders, they represent about one-third of album sales. If you evaluate the trend, the fastest growing demo is adults 45+...they probably aren't buying more music, but make up more of the "pie" because illegal downloads are lowering the percentages in younger age segments.

 

A separate issue is people who buy full albums vs. individual song downloads. My guess is these numbers are based on album sales, therefore missing a big part of the purchasing spectrum among teens and young adults.

 

There are also long-term strategic issues at play - from an industry standpoint, are you going to ignore 15-29 year olds now, considering you want them as customers for life? They need to market to this audience.

[Poker99]

If you look at the iTunes top 100 songs, Miley Cyrus turns up 4 times. Jonas Brothers account for 2 of the top 10 songs.

 

[sabriel9v]

 

The intention was to discuss if record companies will stay away from artists that attract fans with good pirate-download skills.

 

 

I feel we have to define "record company" first. Are we talking major or indie labels? I assume you're speaking about majors. Nonetheless, straying away from tech-savvy fanbases is not going to save major labels at this point. They didn't embrace downloading technology when it first appeared on the market and overlooked the capabilities of it. In addition, they underestimated the power it could have to flip the market upside down.

 

I feel most major labels have a company agenda that they follow. This includes signing artists who abide by a tried and true hitmaking formula. These artists have a very generic sound and it's easy to categorize them and pitch to music directors at radio stations. However, you mentioned Lil Wayne. Lil Wayne has gained more leverage at his record label because of rampant downloading. He released close to 300 tracks on at least 50 different mixtapes last year. I'd doubt that even 10-15% of that material was purchased. Nonetheless, he got his name out there by catering to tech-savvy teens and his name became ubiquitous. He now he has more mobility and options at his current record label because his fanbase has increased. This was all due to downloading.

[the-good-way]

An interesting discussion to say the least.

 

It does seem that we don't have the hard data on things like the Hanna Montana (It would be best to have at least the mean and deviation numbers)

and typical user ability with a reasonable 'envelope' maybe 1 or 2 signma or so

 

That seems to be a point of contention we may just not be able to clear up at this time.

While people may agree or disagree with the validity of sabriel9v's assertions, I believe they are made in good faith (the accuracy of statements is debatable, but I feel extremely confident sabriel9v is *not* a troll)

 

 

Despite the difficulties, I do find the question an interesting one.

[Goldtopper]

but make up more of the "pie" because illegal downloads are lowering the percentages in younger age segments.

 

Good point.

 

 

are you going to ignore 15-29 year olds now, considering you want them as customers for life?

 

Depends on if there's going to be any companies in the future able to make money selling recorded music.