reading a book.....tremendously depressed. have you read this?

[BlueStrat]

 

was I "lucky" this time around to get 3 postive responses with more possibly to come in, or did I just go back to the drawing, take control of my destiny, and make my "luck".

 

 

I'd say both, but if you don't have the right product in the right hands at the right time, it won't happen.

 

Sounds like you've made decisions to minimize the chance factor, but it still comes down to whether someone likes it enough to buy it and more importantly, the public buys it.

 

I do wish you well with it. I'd like to read it myself.

[kurdy]

Wow--this thread was getting pretty dreary, but has since turned into an interesting discussion.

 

It seems like everyone agrees that luck does play a factor in success--the argument is: to what degree?

 

I think success is usually a result of a lot of hard work. I think the people who have had a lot of success--they had to be willing to sacrifice everything--to "pound the pavement", so to speak. They had to be strong willed not to get discouraged and let anything get in their way. That's a tough order for anyone to fill. It's a cruel business; most people reach their breaking point trying to "make it", and simply can't take anymore. It's often about endurance, even in the midst of being pelted by rocks--to have the will to carry on, and not let their spirit get crushed.

 

However, it simply makes no sense to factor out luck altogether. Even after all that hard work and endurance, in the end, the deciding factor is still luck; being at the right place at the right time. There are literally millions of musicians and artists in the world trying to make it; it's absolutely impossible for every single person with enough talent and drive to get their moment in the sun. The ones that do--right place, right time. That was true for the Beatles, Dylan, Springsteen, Prince, Nirvana, etc, etc., no matter how exceptionally talented they may or may not have been, there's no way there couldn't have been 50 times as many others who were every bit as talented that didn't make it.

[Scafeets]

I think there are many flavors of "luck" to consider.

Listen to "Sneakin' Up Behind You" by the Brecker Brothers. Was it luck or design that an obscure jazz fusion band had a big top forty hit? Granted, they are all great players and went on to prove that over the next 30 years. But the luck part, IMO, was this: Will Lee did a great impersonation of Stevie Wonder at a time that the market was clamoring for a new Stevie recording -- which wasn't coming out for another 6 months. The success of the record was a complete fluke -- never duplicated by any of the BB band members -- because it was all about right place/right time and catching the public's fancy, which is always the biggest crap shoot.

Talent, hard work, looks, connections and money will stack the deck in your favor, but luck will prevail when it comes to chart success. There are a lot of professionals trying to lube the wheels of the industry, yet off-the-wall songs by marginal artists continue to have accidental hits.

Trying to guess what the public will buy in music, art, fashion, design, etc. will always involve a serious amount of luck. You can make the odds better by being better, more professional, etc. -- but you just need to look at what sells to realize that:

1. There's only a marginal correlation between quality and success.

2. If it was predictable, the industry would have a success rate better than 20%

[BlueStrat]

 

 

 

Thanks, that's pretty much what I'm trying to say, and as alwyas, you do it so much better than I.

 

Even something as contrived as American Idol, who think they are painstakingly selecting the right people and giving them every opportunity to succeed, are minimizing the risk, controlling the variables, and following a strict formula, still can't produce either hits or stars on a consistent basis. Anybody have a Reuben Studdard or Fantasia Barrero CD? In fact, out of 6 seasons, two have made names for themselves, Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood. (well, 50% if you count Jennifer Hudson, but her success wasn't due to winning AI).

 

If the biggest hit making machine in the world with unlimited resources and television exposure can only produce a 33% success rate, what real chance does Joe Average have by just "working hard"?

[J.Paul]

I haven't read that book but ageism is only prevalent if you wanna be a rockstar, and there are plenty of other ways to make money with your music OTHER than being a rockstar.

 

I sat next to Bob Carlisle (the "Butterfly Kisses" dude) on an airplane once and while while some of you are correct about the commitment, focus, and time it takes to push your music you are forgetting that when you're home you are HOME. Bob took his daughter to school and picked her up everyday, spent quality time w/ her, did his gigs on the weekends. It wasn't the typical American visit with your spawn for 6 minuetes during dinner and that's all.

[stratcool]

The great Arnold Schwarzenegger, who you can't call a lucky guy at all, since he can't be lucky all the time said this about breaking into the film business... I dont remember his EXACT words.. but they were like :

 

Nobody was giving me a chance.. they said my accent was too strong, that my name was wierd.. you name it they had an excuse.. and I learnt then that you had to have a business mind. You've got to be there where there is no else. Once you do that, then you have to create a DEMAND for that thing.. and then they HAVE to come to you....

 

I think it boils down to being smart about it, and having persistance.. if you know something isnt working.. change it... you cant change the system.. u can only work your way through it....

 

Persistance... if you keep at it.... i still believe that even today if Bluestrat keeps at it.. and (i dont know) if he wants to be the next SRV.. i still believe he can do it ... if he persists.. if he has that attitude.. that ill get what i want even if it takes all of my life to get there.. then that person usually .. or eventually wins...

 

I mean EVEN if its about being at the right place at the right time.. PERSIST.. youll eventually be at the right place at the right time

 

and oh.. i totally agree with writing killer songs... you just know when a song will be a hit!

[Silouan Green]

I read once that Winston Churchill said that most people quit right before they were about to succeed. Why is it that so many people that chime in instead of saying, "I didn't have the talent", "I never wrote really great songs", "I just gave up after a while." they always say something to the effect of "Man, I followed the rules, I really did and I still didn't make it. It must be luck."

 

Maybe you just weren't talented enough. Maybe the other guy really was working harder than you. Maybe the other guy did get lucky. So what. If luck is being at the right place, at the right time, etc. How many times have you tried to be there?

 

You can look at SRV and say being at Montreux and being discovered by David Bowie was luck. But SRV dropped out of High School to be a full time musician. His skill and talent was of such quality Eric Clapton said, "I remember being fascinated by the fact that he never, ever seemed to be lost in any way. I mean, it wasn't ever that he took a breather or paused to think where he was going to go next. It just flowed out of him. —Eric Clapton"

 

How many guys has Clapton said that about?

 

I truly believe that Montreux and David Bowie just happened to be the place he was discovered so to speak. It would have happened somewhere. My god, the guy played all the time all over the place. Every gig he played, every day he got better, his chances for being discovered got better and eventually he found "luck."

 

Not many people are this special and probably need some luck. But if you have this talent, develop it, then with insance persisitance look for opportunity I think you can find it. On some level.

[Silouan Green]

And Bluestrat, send me your address via my website or something and I'd love to send you a copy of the book! I'll even throw caution to the wind and include some of my songs!

[jonnythesaint]

 

Thanks, that's pretty much what I'm trying to say, and as alwyas, you do it so much better than I. Even something as contrived as American Idol, who think they are painstakingly selecting the right people and giving them every opportunity to succeed, are minimizing the risk, controlling the variables, and following a strict formula, still can't produce either hits or stars on a consistent basis. Anybody have a Reuben Studdard or Fantasia Barrero CD? In fact, out of 6 seasons, two have made names for themselves, Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood. (well, 50% if you count Jennifer Hudson, but her success wasn't due to winning AI). If the biggest hit making machine in the world with unlimited resources and television exposure can only produce a 33% success rate, what real chance does Joe Average have by just "working hard"?

 

 

 

 

actually [risking exposing myself as a fan...it's a guilty pleasure because I sing.....honest],

they didn't win but:

Clay Aiken has sold millions.

Daughtry has sold millions as well.

 

and their music is crap. 100% crap [ok maybe 92%]. But somehow they sell records, I blame exposure.

[jonnythesaint]

I would also say that success is about complete utter dedication. If you have real talent, it's about dedication, craftsmanship, and timing. Success is different for everyone though.

[MartinC]

Great thread. I also think the songs are the most important thing to establish a real carreer as a recording artist-no matter who writes them, the artist who records them has the best chance, IMO. And I also agree that artists like Brit Spears worked like crazy-she was not just lucky, she was ready.

[BassJenn]

Hey Bluesaway...I read that book too and it depressed the hell out of me. It lead to me quitting the band (one of the many reasons) I was in and stopping work completely on my little record label. I let it get to me. Don't let it discourage you like it did to me. I'm just recovering (six months).

 

And remember ageism in the music industry is mostly in the majors. Hardly anyone else cares.

[RobRoy]

 

I read once that Winston Churchill said that most people quit right before they were about to succeed.

 

 

The first time I did the Seattle to Portland 200 mile bike ride, the last two miles were the hardest. And they were FLAT. It was purely phychological.

 

People fear success.

 

Once a toddler learns to use a toilet, the diaper is going away very soon.

 

With success comes responsitility. People seem to sense that like animals sense coming earthquakes.

[slight-return]

Hey Rob - you going to be doing the RSVP?

(man, that thing sold out like a Stones concert!)

[RobRoy]

 

Hey Rob - you going to be doing the RSVP? (man, that thing sold out like a Stones concert!)

 

 

I've never actually done it, but I may next year. Last year was the first since 1991 that I didn't do the STP. Honestly, bass has replaced the bike as my main hobby. I still bike commute but after 15 straight STP's I think I am getting more into the "just bike for fun" groove (except for commuting of course). I am finding I am less and less interested in really long (over 70 mile) rides.

 

But I suspect it is also just a phase.

 

I suspect the RSVP may just replace the STP for me. It's about bleeding time.

 

Plus, generally speaking, bass players are fatter than bike riders. I hate that.

[slight-return]

I hear ya, was one of those Boulder, CO bike Freakies in the 90s (the whole work At Pearl Izumi thing that everyone does, did the Ned-->gunbarrel commute..woof! just don't think I could do that daily anymore)

 

Then I got tired (well, actually I literally killed my ankle and used it as an excuse)..well, to be honest, I lived in a state of overtraining years, so it's my own damn fault for "getting tired"

 

So I feel ya

 

'course the problem is I continued to eat like I was power touring , just without the power touring [i think I'm about 50-60 lbs heavier than my hardcore days]

 

The wife's got the bug (she was always a rider, we met over her wanting to test ride my Mantra - but now she's powering up, she gets the itch if she's been off for a day) so my ass is back in the saddle as trainer

 

ugh, back is hard -- what used to be nothing is now "a ride" -- it's weird though

 

While we have back-dues to pay the pain bank, there's a certain membership that's lifetime...the legs and lungs remember -- the output isn't there, but the form is

 

 

what you can go is get skinny and get a "stick on a stand" EUB so the relative proportions are maintained

 

 

[oh, slight return, my fav road ride on the planet is Mt Evans --- http://www.mountevans.com/ I bring it up b/c if you find yourself in the Boulder/ Denver area you owe it to yourself to do that ride...it's unreal you swim up out of the atmosphere...it's challengin and beautiful and I can't say enough about it]

[mickeydean]

has anyone read moses avalon's "million dollar mistakes" about the cesspool that is the music industry? (he wrote another one before it called "confessions of a music producer" or something like that. i didn't read it, but i heard it was good.) it's brilliantly written. and what he's trying to do is steer you clear of the {censored} in the business, but the effect it is having on me is simply instilling fear and maybe a shot of not-so-appreciated-or-needed reality. part of being a musician is continuing and persevering and i'm getting discouraged. here's my deal: i'm pretty much at a crossroads; i'm 29 years old - thirty in the fall. i have a wife and kid, so my professional music goals had to take a bit of a back burner to parenting/husbandry....and that's cool. but now my son's almost 6 and doesn't need the 'babying' that he needed before and i'm just about to release a pretty serious songwriter/jazzy disk in the summer.........but this is a pretty ageist business....and i'm coming up on the age where it's not doing for a guy like me, you know? reading this book is getting really difficult for me. has anyone gone through this? dealt with it? i'd love any help or ideas you have. really.

 

yup sure have. i am 53 now and made a really good living playing guitar. raised a family been married 35 years and missed nothing. had a record deal, played with touring artists on the road, recorded with cool people and own a studio now.

 

the most important thing i learned was if you want to make music your lively hood, there are a lot of cool ways to do it and you have to be open to all of them, at least to listen to an offer, you can always say no.

 

the other thing is if you are in the business for the glamour or the fame factor, you are really screwed. play the lottery instead. if you win, you can buy a deal.

[seifukusha]

great thread, this one, cheers..

[Poker99]

I'll tell you what is a hit.

 

A hit is a song that a major label payed for it to be played at least 500 times on the radio.

 

[Scafeets]

I'll tell you what is a hit. A hit is a song that a major label payed for it to be played at least 500 times on the radio.

 

It would be an easy explanation; but really off the mark.

 

Payola has been around since the dawn of radio and it continues, in its various legal and illegal forms, to influence radio play.

 

In the 70s, when things were a bit better regulated than they are now, I'd say 30% of Top 40 and maybe 10% of Album Rock was influenced by illegal payola. Of course, some stations didn't even know they were being scammed back then. A lot of radio research was done by checking local sales outlets (retail reporters were bribed) the national tip-sheets (heavily influenced by advertising) and the trades (favors, connections and the occassional bribe.) I hear that with the advent of Soundscan and BDI, there's a lot more reliable research on actual sales and airplay. But, from what I hear, payola is bigger than ever and probably accounts for more than half the hits that get started. However, there are so many legal forms of payola now, it's hard to separate the slime from the marketing.

 

But, payola can only get things started. Sooner or later, you really have to be commercial to sell a million + records. So, hits then and now still make it without the grease.

 

Radio and TV play is also influenced by good promotion of the non-payola kind. That promotion could be a buzz created be a local performance. It could be that the program or music director just likes it. It could be that legitimate research, or success at a sister station in another market, or a brother-in-law, daughter, etc. recommended it.

 

This may be hard to believe, but I know a lot of honest, hard-working record promotion people. They have an impossible job just trying to get radio people to LISTEN to new stuff. They have to use their charm, business savvy and powers of persuasion to try and get their labels' stuff on the top of the stack.

 

Meanwhle, the poor bastard at the station is tasked with listening to hundreds of new recordings every week, and most of them really, REALLY, suck.

 

So, It could be a (legal) favor because the record company guy gave the station an event, or stuff to give away on air, etc. Sometimes, (often, in fact) a good promotion man will build credibility by recommending a cut from another label that he knows will be a hit. After all, most radio guys could give a rat's ass about "good" -- they want to play the hits.

 

So, by now I've probably outed myself as a former promotion man. It was my first (and second) job in the industry, and boy was it a reality check.

 

I actually got a record played on a major Top 40 station by telling the music director that a particular single was the worst piece of crap the artist ever made; but that it tested well with women 18-34 in 5 markets. After checking with the stations in those other markets, they added it on my recommendation that it was 1: a piece of crap and 2: tested well.

 

And "500 times" is a drop in the bucket -- hits get played 500 times on one station in 5 or 6 weeks and still often don't make it. Because they could be local or regional hits, or not hits at all.

 

Record companies call them "turntable hits." (Still) It means: the cut got played, the company did all the right things promotionally, and it still didn't sell. Happens all the time.

 

Likewise, there are runaway hits that never got to be "priorities" at the label. Sometimes, {censored} just happens. Records catch the fancy of radio, TV, the public, etc. without the benefit of any record company juice.

 

Unfortunately, these happy accidents don't seem to raise the level of the quailty of the music that's out there; because blind-luck hits are usually just as banal as the typical Top 40 hit.

 

Like H.L. Mencken used to say; "No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public."

 

So, cream rises to the top, but {censored} floats, too.

[GlennGalen]

The way it looks to me after 30 years as a musician, friend of musicians, and a lifelong music lover... is this:

 

Practicing for hours and becoming a great player, or songwriter, just allows you to buy a ticket in the lottery-- and place it in the hat with 1,500 other greatly talented people.

 

Then every year one or two get picked, at random.

 

You see? It wasn't "just luck"... talent was required to even have a chance. But talent was not enough without luck: right place at the right time.

 

WHY do we not want to admit this?

 

Because we want CONTROL over our destiny. We want to believe we CAN have assurance of music success if we work hard. If we DO the right things.

 

Better to define success as enjoying playing your music, and knowing that you are very, very good at it.

 

Anyone who has been around a while as a musician sees LOTS of very, very talented people at the local level who are as good or better than the big national acts. After a while you figure out what's going on. Success is not assured by talent or hard work.

 

http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=GlennGalen

[GlennGalen]

I'm really with BlueStrat on this stuff about songwriting.

 

I don't think there's a formula for a hit song. Sure, there are tried and true techniques that help make a song a "contender".

 

But nobody seems to know which of the thousands of good songs written in Nashville each year, for example, will become monster, classic hits.

[Poker99]

 

Anyone who has been around a while as a musician sees LOTS of very, very talented people at the local level who are as good or better than the big national acts.

 

 

Hum...

 

I see plenty of good bands, lots of great musicians who are better technically than national acts... But their songs are just not as catchy and good, most of the time.

[GlennGalen]

 

Hum... I see plenty of good bands, lots of great musicians who are better technically than national acts... But their songs are just not as catchy and good, most of the time.

 

 

 

Well, that may be a significant reason. But I think great talent WITH luck is the deciding factor. I really do.

[mickeydean]

if talent has anything to do with it how do you explain most of what is on the radio?