Reality check about a life in music...

[gtrbass]

It seems to me that the number one complaint is generally about money... or the lack of it. Many of us keep ourselves going through hope that it will pay off somehow. Unfortunately, many musicians are exploited by that hope too (pay to play, etc). Here is a reality check from Doug Pinnick, bassist/lead vocalist for King's X. If you're not familiar with them, KX is legendary for their tremendously loyal "cult" following. TK-421 just did a show with them that's been discussed here on the forums. How would you feel if you had 25 years into a full time career in music, and you're rifling through your couch to find change to eat. We're not talking about a guy who's gigging in a cover band. We're talking about aguy who has been on Atlantic records, and played to 300,000 people at Woodstock '94.

 

Recently posted on the King's X website:

 

Doug's post:

 

"I have read about 2 pages of this thread, I wish I could set down and answer all the questions, and speculations...I will try to make light of some of the things said and suggested...you guys are wonderful so please don’t take anything I say as negative or bitching....there’s no anger here....just love ...

 

Here goes...we never fit in, no matter what we do we can’t get the masses on board, and we’ve done everything there is, I now you all have suggestions of what we could do to get more successful, but we have done everything there is to do! or at least inquired about it all...we just can’t get the folks on board...

 

Woodstock 94 we played for 300 thousand people, and the next week on soundscan we sold about 200 CD's. Then the week later nothing to comment on....the rest of the bands on the bill, Jackyl, Sheryl Crow, Live, Candlebox, etc.. sold millions!!! We got the best slot of the day, and USA today, Howard Stern, MTV, said we were the best band that day! We sold nothing...and it changed my life....I cut my hair and almost gave up! Plus, I was going thru mid life crisis…I started getting panic attacks and got blinded by my self hate...Ear Candy was the result...

 

Management?.. We have had people check us out and they say were doing a better job by ourselves than they could… after they see what we have to go thru to get a gig...and keep the boat afloat...others say we’re perceived as an old band and they feel they can't help us....

 

Record companies? We tried to give Atlantic a done CD with nothing to do but throw it out there... they passed, saying they are only interested in new young ands....ALL other companies rejected us except Metal Blade and Inside Out...thank the gods for that....

 

Booking agent? They say they can't get many promoters to bring us, they all think they will lose money... Deep Purple? We were trying to get on that tour, and any other opportunity we can...but we have to pay to play, it's all political....that’s the way ALL bands are treated now, they ALL pay, Ozz Fest... the record companies pay to get all the bands on the tour....we don’t have the $$$, we opened for many bands in the past to no avail…a few new converts, but not enough...

 

Paul Schaeffer plays Born to be loved all the time... but to get to play live on the Letterman show? Practically impossible....I wish you all could understand how impossible the situation is these days for many bands... It sucks! The rejection to KX is overwhelming in the music marketplace...you can imagine how it makes us feel.....

 

Christian music scene??? Yeah, we could have been maybe the biggest band in Christian music, but were not hypocrites, and when the Christians find out that we drink, smoke weed and I am gay!, they would turn on us anyway, so why go there...that just hurts...besides that, they rejected us anyway after they learned who we were........they’re human, they hide it....were not like that, were to honest. That’s why I am down on Christian music...in the name of truth they live lies....That’s never been me…or Kings X… It’s one of our biggest faults...The Christian music scene was a dead end for us no matter what had happened in our career....I am agnostic now anyway, we just couldn’t justify being a Christian band...it just wasn’t the truth...I was raised Christian and have seen the Christian music scene first hand...I can’t be a part of it and I couldn’t back then either...and were still called a Christian band to this day, it wasn’t Kosher back then either, I remember so many people saying tat they couldn’t get their friend to listen to KX cause we were Christian, even though Stryper were successful...now its accepted being a Christian band....but we’re not one of those bands.....what’s done is done and it’s the past.......

 

Downhill career?.. Manic Moon Light was a good CD, I don’t care what anyone says...I put my heart in that CD and wrote some songs that I am proud of...there was some wasted space on it but isn’t that the way most CD's are? We really did our best with what we had and who we were at the time...this band started out down hill, now were in a hole...we couldn’t get the $$$ for a producer for years, so we did it ourselves, at least we tried....then we paid for Michael Wagner out of our own pockets....and finished the CD paying for it ourselves....we are really trying to do the right things but all we get are walls....there’s only so much we can do without money, record company support and attendance....We have maybe sold a million CD's combined from day one!. That’s not many in the real world....Atlantic put millions into promoting us…more than most. We have had the opportunity for exposure and we got it........

I know some of you think there’s things we should be doing, but trust me, we have tried or checked out all the possibility, its just not as easy as you may think... We need all ages shows, and its almost impossible to get them...that’s just fact...it sucks playing at such late times when people have to go to work or drive hours to attend....We always ask for early shows and all ages, it just doesn’t happen... Bands that are successful without airplay or much promotion? It’s a mystery, we’re doing what they did and here we are… We’re going home from this tour broke...I get no $$$ when I am off tour, I have to fend for myself....that’s life I guess. Same as everyone else, I wish it wasn’t so...

 

25 years of doing this with KX....even in the early days before the record deal, we couldn’t get good attendance doing covers, when the other bands we competed with packed the clubs....it’s always been this way, we just don’t appeal to the masses.....maybe if we had about 10 million to promote us??? But there’s no guarantee... We’re perceived as an old band in the marketplace that is well respected but not a money maker..... Bands try to take us out with them but their management always reject us. We may not tour for a while because if all of this...we can’t... We have made mistakes for sure in our career, but we have really tried to do the right things… We’re not the same people as we were when we started this band, and we always try to do our best and make the best music we can...sometimes it didn’t seem like it was the best effort at the time, but if you were there you would understand...

 

We are so thankful for the support from the faithful...we wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for all of you people...the band is really down these days, frustrated, and out of money and ideas that will work....We’re not young upcoming wide eyed kids anymore, and this music biz is obsessed with youth, the whole US is this way, just look around....its not over until the fat lady sings they say... well, she’s at the mike.....

 

I have had a wonderful adventure being in this band and being me...I have been blessed more than most...I take nothing for granted... We could go on and on about what we should do and what we haven’t, but at the end of the day we have done the best that we could with what is before us.....We’re not done, were not breaking up....We’re still hoping to be the biggest band in the world....and I have many more songs in my head and on demos to throw out there for you guys, good or bad, you can decide.....I will make music as long as I can breath...I have questioned my whole life and this band’s place in the world....its still a mystery to me....this band I have invested 25 years of my life to.....and I think about my place in this more than anyone could possibly know or understand....and still don’t know why no one really gives a f*ck on a major scale...and people wonder why I have low self esteem....I am one of the biggest losers that there is...and I don’t know why....no one in KX knows why it hasn’t happened for us....but I will keep doing what I do because I know nothing else and I love making music....thanks for letting me ramble...thanks for hearing me out and like I said before, without you guys I probably wouldn’t be alive....thanks for saving my life....I love you all.....keep the faith, its not taken for granted.....dUg . "

[kurdy]

I don't know; it seems to me that this guy is too caught up in being the "biggest band in the world", and making it on a major scale, when it appears that his band has a very loyal following. To me, it doesn't seem like it would get much better than spending your life making music and having a lot of people like it. I'm sure a lot of bands would like to be in his shoes. Of course, it's good that he recognizes how fortunate he is, and the success he's had, but he also seems to be letting a lot of unecessary things affect his confidence.

 

I certainly can't say I've ever dreamed of having a #1 song or album, but the amount of compromise it usually takes to get to such a position doesn't always seem worth it. As long as there are people who would appreciate the stuff you do; to me that's just as gratifying as how many units you sell, or how many times you get played on the radio. Heck, just being the most popular band in your town is hard to do, and deserves some kudos, I'd say. I'm far from being the most optimistic person in the world, but that's just how I see it.

[Poker]

 

Originally posted by kurdy I don't know; it seems to me that this guy is too caught up in being the "biggest band in the world", and making it on a major scale, when it appears that his band has a very loyal following. To me, it doesn't seem like it would get much better than spending your life making music and having a lot of people like it. I'm sure a lot of bands would like to be in his shoes. Of course, it's good that he recognizes how fortunate he is, and the success he's had, but he also seems to be letting a lot of unecessary things affect his confidence. I certainly can't say I've ever dreamed of having a #1 song or album, but the amount of compromise it usually takes to get to such a position doesn't always seem worth it. As long as there are people who would appreciate the stuff you do; to me that's just as gratifying as how many units you sell, or how many times you get played on the radio. Heck, just being the most popular band in your town is hard to do, and deserves some kudos, I'd say. I'm far from being the most optimistic person in the world, but that's just how I see it.

 

 

+1

 

But the business its still a sad place... I say {censored} the industry, they put too much money on promotion. They should have keep it and lower their goals.

[gtrbass]

 

Originally posted by kurdy To me, it doesn't seem like it would get much better than spending your life making music and having a lot of people like it. I'm sure a lot of bands would like to be in his shoes. Of course,

 

 

Sure, but don't you think it's a bit difficult to make music, have people like it, yet the sacrifice is that you have no financial security? Trust me, this guy isn't bitching about not being able to buy that big house in Beverly Hills. He is practically rolling pennies to eat. If you've been doing this for 25 years, and now you're 50, you can't exactly start over in life and do something else to make a living. Try getting a job at 50 (when you've been in a band all your life) that offers some financial security or health benefits.

[kurdy]

 

Originally posted by gtrbass Sure, but don't you think it's a bit difficult to make music, have people like it, yet the sacrifice is that you have no financial security? Trust me, this guy isn't bitching about not being able to buy that big house in Beverly Hills. He is practically rolling pennies to eat. If you've been doing this for 25 years, and now you're 50, you can't exactly start over in life and do something else to make a living. Try getting a job at 50 (when you've been in a band all your life) that offers some financial security or health benefits.

 

 

Well then, yes--I agree, this changes things considerably. I have a college degree, and it's tough for me. I can only imagine what it must be like for this guy.

[shredfit]

What burns me to the core IS, King's X is one of the most musical, talented, artistic, and articulate bands of the past 25 years...

 

and they were chewed up and spit out by the labels... Likely for some young Auto-tuned, Pro Tools, talentless, power chord, pop punk band.

 

The music industry should be ashamed.

[Blackwatch]

 

I don't know; it seems to me that this guy is too caught up in being the "biggest band in the world", and making it on a major scale, when it appears that his band has a very loyal following. To me, it doesn't seem like it would get much better than spending your life making music and having a lot of people like it. I'm sure a lot of bands would like to be in his shoes. Of course, it's good that he recognizes how fortunate he is, and the success he's had, but he also seems to be letting a lot of unecessary things affect his confidence.

 

 

Well said, and very valid. Many (myself included) got this silly idea in their head that they could make a living in the music business. But I don't think I can become what is required to become 'Really Big'. I had the fantasy that many others had, the naive dream of just playing music and letting someone else take care of all the business. But even booking shows locally can get to you.

You gotta love it and you gotta consider yourself an artist, making art no matter what. Working a day job and creating your art after. Stay in it so if something strange happens you might still get to play your music for caring audiences....

[BlueStrat]

Originally posted by Blackwatch Well said, and very valid. Many (myself included) got this silly idea in their head that they could make a living in the music business. But I don't think I can become what is required to become 'Really Big'. I had the fantasy that many others had, the naive dream of just playing music and letting someone else take care of all the business. But even booking shows locally can get to you. You gotta love it and you gotta consider yourself an artist, making art no matter what. Working a day job and creating your art after. Stay in it so if something strange happens you might still get to play your music for caring audiences....

 

 

You can "make a living" just being local, but you have to alter your idea of what "making a living" means.

 

If you can get by with no cable TV, no car payments, not eating out very often, no movies, no vacations, and so on, yeah, you can get by. My partner that I play with in the duo gives lessons 6 days a week for about 5 hours a day, and plays a few weekends a month. He actually doesn't do bad because he makes about 2k a month teaching.

 

If you were to just perform, it would be tough. Even if you hustled every night and made 100 a night as a solo, and 300 on weekends, the most you could do would be about 7-800 a week, hardly a living wage for one, let alone a family.

 

back in the 80s, I made 400-600 a week, about 800-1200 in 2006 dollars, but after expenses I was lucky to get 200 bucks to live on for the week, which ain't much when you're living on the road. And for awhile during that time, I'd send money home every week while I was married, so I'd end up with like 25 to live on.

 

Any way you slice it, if you can make a living performing (and you can with the right gig) you're going to be hustling continually, doing without a lot of things, and be tied to your job. And trust me, when it becomes a job, it really sucks.

 

I agree with your approach- work a day gig and make enough money to live comfortably, buy decent gear, and play what you want when you want to.

[light_without_heat]

I don't know...

 

I guess my plan was always to keep My living expenses cheap. Like BlueStrat said, I don't have cable tv, don't go to the movies, have no significant other currently, and I make about 800 a month ... tops. But i live in Nebraska so it's pretty damn cheap here. I have a loving supporting family who will back me up IF i need it. Ever since I moved out I tried to be completely independent though. But yeah now I have a bunch of debt to the University and desperation is beginning to take it's hold on me. But in the end I figure everyone;s going to be in debt. Look at our government.

 

The only way I look at it is to start using my head... applying business models to music and trying to outthink the competition to create my own market and succeed in my own individual way that challenges me and makes me happy.... so far so good

 

-light

[gtrbass]

The reason I posted this is because it's a reality check. I posted my own experiences a while back and got blasted by some guy called Cornfordsnob. I have been in 3 label contracts (including Geffen), played as a sideman on some major tours, and did session work in LA. I went back to school and got a real career 14 years ago because I could clearly see that I didn't want to struggle as hard financially as many artists do.

 

I still play with some very heavyweight guys and I don't depend on it to pay my mortgage. In fact many of them don't either. They're just very quiet about it. For me it's tough to hustle all day at work and gig or record at night, but it beats living in poverty or expecting my wife to shoulder the burden of paying the bills.

 

What I see as the big problem with the music business is what I call the "monolopy money" and "pot of gold" notions. Everyone thinks that it's a good idea to give up tremendous ground for the long term rewards. This hurts all of us because there are those goofballs who will exploit the vulnerable with empty promises.

 

That is what has eroded the standard of living of musicians everywhere. The average person thinks for instance that we do make decent enough money for playing at a local bar, because to do it for free or at a financial loss is unthinkable to them. You go to work and do a job, and you get paid.

 

When even King's X has to "pay to play" there is something hugely wrong with the picture...

 

Everybody thinks that the have the talent or the songs to overcome the odds. Everybody thinks they have the secret business plan to make this lucrative. Everybody thinks that if they sacrifice now, it will be worth it. I got news for you... Doug Pinnick did that for 25 years, and he's telling you that he's at the other side of the rainbow and the "pot of gold" is empty. That's a tough realization to face.

[goundAndBagged]

whatever the market will bear, supply and demand...

 

surely a successful person like yourself who can keep a non-music business day job and still be in demand by music's heavyweights would understand capitalism. We can verify Doug Pinnick's story because we know who he is.

 

If i understand the problem correctly, King's X is a great band but American audiences don't buy their CD's for some reason.

 

a lot of great artists Steve Lukather, Queen, Dream Theater, Extreme have sought out the market in which they are in demand.. namely Japan.... maybe King's X should try Japan or Europe.

 

 

 

Originally posted by gtrbass The reason I posted this is because it's a reality check. I posted my own experiences a while back and got blasted by some guy called Cornfordsnob. I have been in 3 label contracts (including Geffen), played as a sideman on some major tours, and did session work in LA. I went back to school and got a real career 14 years ago because I could clearly see that I didn't want to struggle as hard financially as many artists do. I still play with some very heavyweight guys and I don't depend on it to pay my mortgage. In fact many of them don't either. They're just very quiet about it. For me it's tough to hustle all day at work and gig or record at night, but it beats living in poverty or expecting my wife to shoulder the burden of paying the bills. What I see as the big problem with the music business is what I call the "monolopy money" and "pot of gold" notions. Everyone thinks that it's a good idea to give up tremendous ground for the long term rewards. This hurts all of us because there are those goofballs who will exploit the vulnerable with empty promises. That is what has eroded the standard of living of musicians everywhere. The average person thinks for instance that we do make decent enough money for playing at a local bar, because to do it for free or at a financial loss is unthinkable to them. You go to work and do a job, and you get paid. When even King's X has to "pay to play" there is something hugely wrong with the picture... Everybody thinks that the have the talent or the songs to overcome the odds. Everybody thinks they have the secret business plan to make this lucrative. Everybody thinks that if they sacrifice now, it will be worth it. I got news for you... Doug Pinnick did that for 25 years, and he's telling you that he's at the other side of the rainbow and the "pot of gold" is empty. That's a tough realization to face.

 

[NecroSocial]

Yeah, that was the first thing I thought when I read this. Japan. Audiences there are pretty ravenous for exceptional musical talent and it spans all the genres. A lot of US failures have become Japanese success stories.

[gtrbass]

I certianly understand your point. I guess my problem is that I'm kind of a Proghead and I like music with some viruoso flavor to it. That's something which is far out of favor with the American listening public.

 

I saw Toto a couple years ago and there were maybe 1000 people there. Luke's saying "yeah we just finished our European tour where we played to an average audience 3 to 5 times this size." It's not like he's ungrateful, because trust me he is. But it's tough to be so underappreciated in your homeland.

 

Neil Zaza's a good freind of mine. He barely tours the US because he has a hard time getting a promoter to take him on. He tours Asia and there's like 10,000 people in attendance. The guy is one of the best guitar players ever, and his material is very accessible. It's just stupid.

[MorePaul]

The arts in general are a particularly tough arena for financial reward, this isn't new -- hell Chopin used to get stranded...broke

 

By-and-large I think folks tend to explore an art for the personal fulfillment...and when we do that, that's where the rewards tend to be.

 

This certainly isn't restricted to musicians ...pro potters those guys have it tough.

 

Kurt Andersen (studio 360) had an interesting take on the changed concept of "amatuer"

http://www.studio360.org/commentary070602.html

 

The "professional" part of the profession, well that may not be the same partsof the job that resonate our "amateur"....instruction, for instance, is an age-old part of the arts as profession.

[Weirdocat]

One thing I've found with regards to getting most prog rock music is that it's often expensive and most stores don't stock it. That certainly doesn't help when it comes to increasing your fanbase.

 

Oh, and don't forget the size of the US, in comparison to Europe. Europe is a lot more concentrated population wise, so if Toto played in London, there would be a couple of million people ready to get to that show, as opposed to a few thousand in the US.

 

I definately think that Kings X should try the Japan route.

[D/FW XJ'er]

I wouldn't go see them. I hate their music and would rather listen to 3 chord pop stuff.

 

This is how business works people. Time for these guys to go get day jobs, or join cover bands.

 

Sorry it's so unfair that they didn't get widely successful. The rest of us understand this . . .

[vanlatte]

I thought Dougs interview was borderline heartbreaking. Having been a long time Kings X fan it really is eye opening when it is all laid out on the line like this.

 

It's just so unfair.

 

gtrbass, you have pointed out things like this in the past; a lot of artists we might think are "rolling in it" are barely getting by. I didn't doubt it then but Dougs heartfelt speech really drove the point home. Part of me is not surprised at all (the pessemistic side) and part of me is outraged that such a great band, after working so hard and so long is in this situation.

 

Pay to play...wow.

 

I should be a wakeup call to the gobs of talentless hacks expecting overnight success, but we all know how strong the musicians ego can be.

[D/FW XJ'er]

Not everyone is destined to make millions of dollars and stay in the spotlight by playing music. Sorry that's such an unfair concept.

 

It IS a popularity contest, age DOES matter, and it's superficial. Put in all of the hardwork you want, and if you don't sell albums then you're not going anywhere. It's not about giving it 110%. It's about what people want to hear. Take a look at Green Day. Now that you've cried because the music is nothing more than Barre Chords go ahead and realize they will make more in one tour than King's X will make in a lifetime no matter how hard they try.

 

No one wants to see middle aged rockers trying to go against the grain, unless they were popular when they were young (IE The Rolling Stones).

 

King's X need to be applying at Burger King.

[gtrbass]

D/FW XJ'er,

 

Personally, I like Green Day and I'm a Proghead. Don't be a troll. If you don't like King's X and have nothing substantive to add... nothing here for you to see ... move along. Right now someone's looking for you to post your comments somewhere... on some other forum. Quick! Go check it out

 

I really doubt that anyone expects to make a huge amount of money from music that is not mainstream.

[D/FW XJ'er]

Originally posted by gtrbass D/FW XJ'er, Personally, I like Green Day and I'm a Proghead. Don't be a troll. If you don't like King's X and have nothing substantive to add... nothing here for you to see ... move along. Right now someone's looking for you to post your comments somewhere... on some other forum. Quick! Go check it out I really doubt that anyone expects to make a huge amount of money from music that is not mainstream.

 

I wasn't trying to troll anyone.

 

The guy is wondering why no one notices on a large scale. I gave the reason.

[shredfit]

Originally posted by D/FW XJ'er Not everyone is destined to make millions of dollars and stay in the spotlight by playing music. Sorry that's such an unfair concept. It IS a popularity contest, age DOES matter, and it's superficial. Put in all of the hardwork you want, and if you don't sell albums then you're not going anywhere. It's not about giving it 110%. It's about what people want to hear. Take a look at Green Day. Now that you've cried because the music is nothing more than Barre Chords go ahead and realize they will make more in one tour than King's X will make in a lifetime no matter how hard they try. No one wants to see middle aged rockers trying to go against the grain, unless they were popular when they were young (IE The Rolling Stones). King's X need to be applying at Burger King.

 

 

Firstly, compairing King's X to Green Day is like compairing Albert Einstein, Linus Pauling, or Stephen Hawking to the flunky's that do work at Burger King. Heck, the guys in Green Day are not even qualified enough to carry King's X guitars into the venue they are playing.

 

Does Green Day sell more records/concert tickets? Yes! Why? Because the flunky's can relate to them where, I'm sure, that the great scientists I've mentioned could not relate well to the masses because of their genius... (ie Kings X=Genius Rock, Green Day=Flunky Rock). This is sad and unfortunate for the genius rockers... and could be a little unfair... but then their MUST be a correlation to these music types and the bell curve.

 

This may tell us something about America. Which scares the hell out of me. Fewer and fewer people seem to interested in seeking out high thought or substance with excellence. Everyone in America seems to want/buy shallow, superficial, and underachieving music. This saddens me. It's almost like Americans want to triumph mediocrity.

 

I have one word for us Americans if we don't pull our heads out of our butts soon... CHINA

[D/FW XJ'er]

This band has been around for 25 years.

 

Maybe the music just isn't pleasing to most people. They just don't deserve anything beyond flipping burgers because they wasted precious years playing bad music. Too bad they didn't realize this a while ago before he has to now dig change out of the couch.

 

The masses have spoken, and decided no one cares.

 

Also, I don't see them getting popular in other countries. Know why? Everyone else thinks they suck too.

[goundAndBagged]

Originally posted by D/FW XJ'er This band has been around for 25 years. Maybe the music just isn't pleasing to most people. They just don't deserve anything beyond flipping burgers because they wasted precious years playing bad music. Too bad they didn't realize this a while ago before he has to now dig change out of the couch. The masses have spoken, and decided no one cares. Also, I don't see them getting popular in other countries. Know why? Everyone else thinks they suck too.

 

1cent.. to D/FW XJ'er... you are good at bashing King's X, what else are you good at ? from where i stand they HAVE survived for 25 years as a band... what have you done ?

 

2cents.. not related to first.. i've known about King's X ever since they were a new band, never saw them until this year, never bought one of their CDs

 

i like them and think they have a ton of talent, they sound great live unlike many bands who have a ton of hype but can't live up to it live.. the funny thing is that after the show i never considered buying their CD. i still have no desire to buy it.

 

i'd pay $12 to see them play live again.

 

i can't explain it.

[gtrbass]

I think you might have hit the nail on the head. KX is a great live band, but as well produced as many of their records are, the songs don't seem to hold a lot of people's interest. They're not as memorable for some reason. It all comes down to the songs... that's what we live and die by.

 

That said, the Best of King's X CD is a great compilation of their most memorable tunes.

[kurdy]

 

This may tell us something about America. Which scares the hell out of me. Fewer and fewer people seem to interested in seeking out high thought or substance with excellence.

 

 

I guess it depends on how well you can relate to the music.

 

One regular poster on another message board, who is a college student majoring in Music Business, said that Green Day's "American Idiot" CD absolutely blew him away when it first came out. He said it expressed perfectly what was on the minds of every young person in Canada (where he's from) as well as many young people in the US at the time. I can't really agree or disagree, as I only know what I've heard on the radio from it. Maybe KingsX was always somewhat above the heads of the general public to really have that sort of mass appeal? Not always a bad thing, but it doesn't necessarily make it easy to connect with a larger audience.

 

I might add that I've never heard King's X music either, so all I can do is speculate whether or not this may have been the problem.