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Unemployment question for the economists among us


Brother Mango

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I was there. I don't believe you. The worst I could find for unemployment was 10.8% in 1982.

 

 

You don't have to believe me. What did you come up with for interest rates? Was 10.8% in 1982 the national,regional,or city percentage. BTW,unemployment numbers back then were based solely on the amount of people drawing unemployment.Also,after 18 months your benifits were done.Therefore after 18 months,wether you were employed or not,you were no longer in the unemployed statistic.That was one of the first untruths of "Reaganomics".FWIW.

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And it really makes one wonder with all the "benefits" technology has afforded us, if it's really provided us something better.



At the very least it's provided us with incomparably more opportunities to bitch about stuff, and also to download porn. If that's wrong, hell, I don't wanna be right... :lol:

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And it really makes one wonder with all the "benefits" technology has afforded us, if it's really provided us something better.

 

 

YUP! 2yr contracts and still there are the dropped calls, you're SOL if your battery dies and you don't have your charger. Now, with the bluetooth headset, that makes 2 batteries and 2 chargers to monitor.

 

Our grandparents weren't out slaughtering chickens, talking on the phone, saying, "I might lose you. My battery is low and my phone is gonna be as dead as this chicken is about to be." WHOPP!

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word :poke:



The only "recession" I've seen is the one propagated by the news agencies. There is no recession except for the one caused by fear and rumour.


Example:


We had a gas-shortage in Nashville in September 2008. There was no interruption in supply, only an increased demand over 48 hours. The news reported that a shortage was possible... people who normally would not fill their tank (having 1/2 or more) all mobbed stations and filled their cars to the top, then morons began filling gascans. It took a week to return to normal.


Rumour created panic, and panic created the shortage.

 

 

Really? That's the only recession going on? So, I didn't really get laid off back in September? And of the five people I worked most closely with, three of them didn't get their notices a couple of weeks ago?

 

How about that? I should let them know that we all really still have jobs.

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Ok. Lots of info here. Thanks very much! It helps me see a little clearer.


Some comments:

-- Those who can't work aren't counted in the unemployment rate. Neither are those who've just given up and are living on savings or going back to school. Therefore, 8% unemployment doesn't merely reflect the number of warm bodies. It's counting people who are able and seeking work.


So, when you count children, the infirm, students, and people who've given up, maybe we're really looking at:


Population of 100 people, 15 are people who can't work or aren't looking for work. Of the 85 people who are left, if 8% (7 people) can't find work, 78 people are trying to carry the day for the entire 100.

The 22 who aren't working are still using the roads, using social services, etc.


Regarding the stimulus plan, it's the idea to provide funds to get people back working in some capacity? George Bush's stimulus, giving people $600 was often criticized because enough people didn't go spend the money. Now, we're giving it to companies and various government entities to hopefully hire people or at least avoid laying off more people. And we hear that some companies aren't using the money the way it was intended.


Also, I appreciate you observation that the unemployment rate was higher in the 70s but differences between now and then are the interests rates and other economic indicators. So, it's not just the 8% unemployment rate that makes things so weird right now.

 

 

It's counting people who are able, actively seeking work, and are still receiving unemployment benefits. Once your benefits run out, you no longer count.

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I can agree with the media spreading fear. They aren't in the "good news" business. However, I'm hearing about a lot of people who are experienced, educated and talented who've ben layed off and have been looking for a job more than a year.


About 5 years ago, when the media were railing about how awful things were, it made no sense to me. I didn't personally know anyone who was in a mess. Now I know several. That's not my proof that we're in a living hell but I'm reluctant to dismiss the fear as being completely unfounded.

 

 

OTOH, the fact that you're hearing about these things may be a media thing, unless you're hearing about it from the people it's happening to.

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You don't have to believe me. What did you come up with for interest rates? Was 10.8% in 1982 the national,regional,or city percentage. BTW,unemployment numbers back then were based solely on the amount of people drawing unemployment.Also,after 18 months your benifits were done.Therefore after 18 months,wether you were employed or not,you were no longer in the unemployed statistic.That was one of the first untruths of "Reaganomics".FWIW.

 

 

And now it's, what? Six months? Nine months, tops?

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Really? That's the only recession going on? So, I didn't really get laid off back in September? And of the five people I worked most closely with, three of them didn't get their notices a couple of weeks ago?


How about that? I should let them know that we all really still have jobs.

 

 

You are reading what you want to read (and sounding very beligerant about it, I might add). I wrote that there is no recession except for the one caused by media overhype and fearmongering.

 

I gave a further example of how the media can control real-life... I thought my real-life example explained my view.

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Really? That's the only recession going on? So, I didn't really get laid off back in September? And of the five people I worked most closely with, three of them didn't get their notices a couple of weeks ago?


How about that? I should let them know that we all really still have jobs.

 

 

Right. 1/4 of the company I worked for was layed off and the business was moved to a much cheaper city. 6 months later, the other 3/4 were told ALL of it was being closed and moved.

 

Not many people were willing to leave major cities like NYC, Chicago, Atlanta and Irvine to move to a small town in Wisconsin.

 

One person arranged to move, if and only if she could sell her condo. Over 8 months just 2 people came to even look at her place. Neither one bought it. So, she's layed off and looking for work.

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OTOH, the fact that you're hearing about these things may be a media thing, unless you're hearing about it from the people it's happening to.

 

 

Right. 5 yrs ago, in my world, hardtimes existed in the media. Today, I have an abundance of friends I can call and they've got no work & can't find work; or, they're worried about losing work. I know small business owners who face the difficulty of telling their employees/friends that things aren't so good.

 

To be fair, I do know people who easily found new jobs, and people who found jobs right before things turned horrible for them.

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What color I the sky in your world?
:D



right now???

blue with a bit of white moving from West-to-East;)

The media controls the masses.

Of all the Americans who voted for Obama, how many actually met the man? How many sat down to a meal with the Obama family?

The only view that America gets is the view the media allows them to see. Even not in-print... just the photos can reveal what the media wants you to believe.

Where do you get your news?

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NPR


We ARE in a recession. It was created by greed and stupidity. The media hype came much later after the horse was already out of the gate.



And the media propagated the recession...

Somebody mentions "recession" in a news report (even an unrelated story).

Tell people on TV that there is a recession, and they quit buying stuff.

They quit buying stuff, and companies profits fall.

Companies profits fall, and employees get laid-off.

Laid-off employees can't spend money they don't have, and profits fall further.

Profits fall further, and companies go-under.

Companies go-under, and even more are unemployed.

It goes on-and-on...:facepalm:

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And the media propagated the recession...


Somebody mentions "recession" in a news report (even an unrelated story).


Tell people on TV that there is a recession, and they quit buying stuff.


They quit buying stuff, and companies profits fall.


Companies profits fall, and employees get laid-off.


Laid-off employees can't spend money they don't have, and profits fall further.


Profits fall further, and companies go-under.


Companies go-under, and even more are unemployed.


It goes on-and-on...
:facepalm:

 

 

Sounds like you could be saying something else.

Are you saying that the media have have started the recession but now we really do find ourselves in one?

 

Or, are you saying that there is no recession?

 

I can agree that the media don't help things with their fear-mongering and that the recession may last longer than it needs to because they'll still be preaching fear long after everything is in place for a turnaround.

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The only "recession" I've seen is the one propagated by the news agencies. There is no recession except for the one caused by fear and rumour.


Example:


We had a gas-shortage in Nashville in September 2008. There was no interruption in supply, only an increased demand over 48 hours. The news reported that a shortage was possible... people who normally would not fill their tank (having 1/2 or more) all mobbed stations and filled their cars to the top, then morons began filling gascans. It took a week to return to normal.


Rumour created panic, and panic created the shortage.

 

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One thing I do find interesting "in these hard economic times..." is that the media compares everything for us so that we don't have to. The stock market is at the lowest point "since 1996" or so. Unemployment is at its worst "since 1982" or so. Obama has spent more money "than all other Presidents combined" or whatever.

I just don't know if we can trust the news media...at all.

Well, I lived through 1982 and really, honestly don't remember much about that recession. I remember the long gas lines and the Sunday closings and 55 mph nationwide (even on interstates). I lived through (and invested money) the 1990's.

But, we survived. We lived through it. We honestly spent more time worrying about doing our jobs well and raising our kids well than we did worrying about who was Prez and how his economic policies would affect us.

This, too, shall pass. Just listen to Ben Stein's speech. :p

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One thing I do find interesting "in these hard economic times..." is that the media compares everything for us so that we don't have to. The stock market is at the lowest point "since 1996" or so. Unemployment is at its worst "since 1982" or so. Obama has spent more money "than all other Presidents combined" or whatever.


I just don't know if we can trust the news media...at all.


Well, I lived through 1982 and really, honestly don't remember much about that recession. I remember the long gas lines and the Sunday closings and 55 mph nationwide (even on interstates). I lived through (and invested money) the 1990's.


But, we survived. We lived through it. We honestly spent more time worrying about doing our jobs well and raising our kids well than we did worrying about who was Prez and how his economic policies would affect us.


This, too, shall pass. Just listen to Ben Stein's speech.
:p



Damm, you're old!

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You don't have to believe me. What did you come up with for interest rates? Was 10.8% in 1982 the national,regional,or city percentage. BTW,unemployment numbers back then were based solely on the amount of people drawing unemployment.Also,after 18 months your benifits were done.Therefore after 18 months,wether you were employed or not,you were no longer in the unemployed statistic.That was one of the first untruths of "Reaganomics".FWIW.

Where did you get the 18 to 24 % you're claiming ?

:idk:

Maybe the media shouldn't be allowed to report on the recession because it makes the Dow go down. But on the other hand I thought it was the President that makes the Dow go down. :confused:

While we're at it, anybody who thinks the media caused this recession is invited to tell us how we should regulate the media so they can't tell us {censored} like this any more because I don't want any more recessions and a free press is a small price to pay. :cop:

:facepalm:

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