Why Is The Electric Guitar Dying?

[MikeRivers]

Statistics are whatever you want to make of them. The question I have, though, is what are those 1.4 million ukuleles doing to get another 1.4 million people to buy them next year? Lots of musical instruments are being sold, but how many of them are contributing to keeping music alive, well, and progressing? How many guitars were sold before there was a Jimi Hendrix, a Mississippi John Hurt, or even a Bob Dylan?

 

There are likely as many creative musicians today as there have always been. More instruments sold doesn't necessarily increase this number significantly. It increases the number of instruments that will end up in the closet or sold on the used market in ten years, not contributing to the making of music that others will want to hear.

 

[Anderton]

Statistics are whatever you want to make of them.

 

I suppose so, if you think the 1.4 million is a made-up number.

 

The question I have, though, is what are those 1.4 million ukuleles doing to get another 1.4 million people to buy them next year?

 

That's about forecasting. I assume it's the same as for anything else...some will end up in closets, some people will move up to guitar, some will sell on reverb.com, some will get a soprano ukulele to complement their baritone model, some will win America's Got Talent...whatever.

 

Lots of musical instruments are being sold, but how many of them are contributing to keeping music alive, well, and progressing?

 

12.7344538778%.

 

How many guitars were sold before there was a Jimi Hendrix, a Mississippi John Hurt, or even a Bob Dylan?

 

Of course, fads can popularize instruments, or even effects (e.g., Peter Frampton with a talk box). But you're not considering the youth demographic, increase in population, increased buying power in third world countries, the modernization of guitar factories that allow them to produce more instruments, and so on. I'm pretty sure there were fewer cars sold before there was a Jimi Hendrix, a Mississippi John Hurt, or even a Bob Dylan.

 

There are likely as many creative musicians today as there have always been. More instruments sold doesn't necessarily increase this number significantly. It increases the number of instruments that will end up in the closet or sold on the used market in ten years, not contributing to the making of music that others will want to hear.

 

I don't think the primary purpose of making music is to create things other people want to hear. It's to provide enjoyment to the person doing the playing. If others like it too, so much the better.

[Anderton]

And finally...total guitars sold in past 20 years is up +122% (electric +84% and acoustic +160%). If only I could die so elegantly.

[MikeRivers]

 

I don't think the primary purpose of making music is to create things other people want to hear. It's to provide enjoyment to the person doing the playing. If others like it too, so much the better.

 

That's a valid point, but I'll bet that some of those people buying guitars and ukes are hoping to make music that others will enjoy. Without that, where would the music business be?

 

Oh, right. Never mind.

 

And then there's all the guys who got into music to get chicks. And all the chicks who got into music to get clothes. Both self-enjoyed, I guess.

[audioicon]

It became so common place that now no one under 30 cares that you play guitar...or piano' date=' drums, flugel horn...[/quote']

 

You make very interesting and compelling points but your passion and apparent frustration is affecting the trajectory of your argument.

 

I have to respectfully disagree, that people do not care, people do care and people who play instruments are very well regarded. Every time I tell someone that I am a musician, the first question is:

 

"What instrument do you play?"

 

They never ask me about software, most people, at least the once I talk to have never heard of Ableton live.

[audioicon]

I don't think the primary purpose of making music is to create things other people want to hear.

 

Does anyone knows what people want to hear? So true, Making music from the prospective of a listener is frightening because you have no say, it becomes a junk food drive through window process.

 

[daddymack]

 

You make very interesting and compelling points but your passion and apparent frustration is affecting the trajectory of your argument.

 

I have to respectfully disagree, that people do not care, people do care and people who play instruments are very well regarded. Every time I tell someone that I am a musician, the first question is:

 

"What instrument do you play?"

 

They never ask me about software, most people, at least the once I talk to have never heard of Ableton live.

 

Where I am, Los Angeles, it seemed that everyone was a 'musician', but lately the scene has shifted, live venues are moving to DJs, rock rooms are folding...it is a cycle we've seen before, but this time, the underlying reasons are more 'sinister'...the number of musicians here is the same, but the number of working musicians shrinks daily. This was the rock and roll center of the universe for decades, but not anymore. The competition here is absolutely crushing, so many amazingly gifted players here, and so many struggling to find decent paying gigs in an ever-shrinking pool.

The gen-X-ers and millenials keep their ear buds in....and their wallets closed. The boomers are rapidly getting beyond going out more than once a month...the tide is turning. Kids want to hear what they want, and they can all be at the same table, each listening to something different on their iPhones...

[Mark L]

I don't do gigs (too shy) but I find I'm using my guitars less and less in my recordings. The last few songs I've done have all been 'in-the-box', as it were. This PreSonus DAW I have is chock-full of sounds, and while it's been somewhat of a nightmare trying to navigate my way through it, I'm getting some half-decent results with the 'virtual' instruments that came bundled with it

 

I still write songs on my acoustic guitar, though, so all is not lost

[audioicon]

 

Where I am, Los Angeles, it seemed that everyone was a 'musician', but lately the scene has shifted, live venues are moving to DJs, rock rooms are folding...it is a cycle we've seen before, but this time, the underlying reasons are more 'sinister'...the number of musicians here is the same, but the number of working musicians shrinks daily. This was the rock and roll center of the universe for decades, but not anymore. The competition here is absolutely crushing, so many amazingly gifted players here, and so many struggling to find decent paying gigs in an ever-shrinking pool.

The gen-X-ers and millenials keep their ear buds in....and their wallets closed. The boomers are rapidly getting beyond going out more than once a month...the tide is turning. Kids want to hear what they want, and they can all be at the same table, each listening to something different on their iPhones...

 

 

I hear you loud and clear BUT! I have been spending lots of time on you lately. When I work, I have youtube in the background listening to music.

I try to find indie music or artist that are not proliferated.

 

And what I want to tell you is the the Gen X are interested, you just have to grab their attention. Case in point, I stumbled upon a band called The Knocks on you tube, they guys are freaking awesome and just look at the comments and whose posting.

 

I agree there is extreme saturation but each person has a flavor, you just have to capture it.

[MikeRivers]

 

 

I hear you loud and clear BUT! I have been spending lots of time on you[tube, I think] lately. When I work, I have youtube in the background listening to music.

I try to find indie music or artist that are not proliferated.

 

And what I want to tell you is the the Gen X are interested, you just have to grab their attention. Case in point, I stumbled upon a band called The Knocks on you tube, they guys are freaking awesome and just look at the comments and whose posting.

 

Comments don't pay for groceries or a mortgage. What daddymack was talking about was working musicians, not just talented musicians in a genre that appeals to some people. Back in the 70s and 80s, talented musicians (mostly those who played cover tunes) could have a pretty steady run of weekend bar gigs that would keep bring in $100-$150 a week, a nice supplement to an office job or maybe even pay the rent in a shared apartment. And it's still like that. You know what they say about "wage growth" - one of the biggest issues in our economy - there isn't any.

 

Here In the DC area, we have about as many clubs as we ever did where moderate-to-big stars play, and admission is $30-$70. What there are fewer of is bars and restaurants where there's no admission, a beer doesn't cost $15, and the band is paid a couple of hundred bucks a night. But what we don't have are places where talent can develop and then move on to better paying gigs.

 

Danny Gatton and Roy Buchannan played bars around here in the '60s and '70's. While they're two of the most revered guitarists among guitarists, they never got to be big stars, and never made the big bucks. I guess our claim to fame is Emmylou Harris, who used to play bars and folk clubs. That's one in, what, 40 years?

 

Music has never been a very solid career, and all but a handful of those who have managed to make it a lifetime career do something else but play music. They might be doing other things that are music-related like producing, songwriting, maybe engineering.

 

 

 

[audioicon]

Comments don't pay for groceries or a mortgage.

 

Mike, maybe I am missing something but one of the premise of DaddyMack's argument is that Gex-X do not care, they have short attention span.

I mentioned comments as a way to say people are listening and are paying attention.

 

I agree with you that it will not necessarily transfer into revenue. But you can argue that people are not paying attention but also ignore a song with X Million views made by some guy whipping a cowbell.

 

I did not see the initial argument as, people not buying music but rather people not paying attention.

 

Danny Gatton and Roy Buchannan played bars around here in the '60s and '70's. While they're two of the most revered guitarists among guitarists, they never got to be big stars,

 

To me music is binary and literal. You either make music because you love it and if you make a living fine, otherwise keep rocking.

OR

You make music because you want to make money. Like Lady Gaga wearing Raw Meat.

 

It cannot be both.

 

If you want to pay Mortgage or by Groceries making music, then you have to be radical, say anything and do anything but no one I have ever met who truly loves music will do that.

[daddymack]

 

 

I hear you loud and clear BUT! I have been spending lots of time on you lately. When I work, I have youtube in the background listening to music.

I try to find indie music or artist that are not proliferated.

 

And what I want to tell you is the the Gen X are interested, you just have to grab their attention. Case in point, I stumbled upon a band called The Knocks on you tube, they guys are freaking awesome and just look at the comments and whose posting.

 

I agree there is extreme saturation but each person has a flavor, you just have to capture it.

 

are these guys on a label? a major label? or are they playing 'house' shows trying to eke out enough money to stay afloat and keep their gear working? Comments on youtube are not downloads or sales.

The best bands I've ever been in just lost our steady gig because we could not bring in enough 'drinkers'. In that band I have four 'in demand' session players, two semi-pro sidemen and a grammy winner. And that is the saddest truth of all. Even when I could fill the room, if they are drinking water, the house ain't making its nut...and I'm out of a gig. Live music, as a means of generating income, is dying for many of the same reasons guitars sales are softening...[DUI laws], lack of interest and too many other options.

 

Will I stop playing? No. I am doing more ancillary things, equipment repair, studio wiring, teaching...but at the end of the day, the reason I got in to music was to perform...and it gets more challenging all the time, because I will not do it for free..

 

[audioicon]

 

are these guys on a label? a major label? or are they playing 'house' shows trying to eke out enough money to stay afloat and keep their gear working? Comments on youtube are not downloads or sales.

The best bands I've ever been in just lost our steady gig because we could not bring in enough 'drinkers'. In that band I have four 'in demand' session players, two semi-pro sidemen and a grammy winner. And that is the saddest truth of all. Even when I could fill the room, if they are drinking water, the house ain't making its nut...and I'm out of a gig. Live music, as a means of generating income, is dying for many of the same reasons guitars sales are softening...[DUI laws], lack of interest and too many other options.

 

Will I stop playing? No. I am doing more ancillary things, equipment repair, studio wiring, teaching...but at the end of the day, the reason I got in to music was to perform...and it gets more challenging all the time, because I will not do it for free..

 

 

I hear you. Again, your points are valid and compelling. I am not sure if the Knocks are on Major Labels. I have never heard them on the radio here. Most people I hangout with don't know who they are but they do have an indie following.

 

Like any other business and as you rightfully explained, the music business is not easy and can be very agile. However, there is a following out there, it was never there before but I can tell you it's there and forgive me for singing to the choir. I went to school in Ghana West Africa and was born in Liberia. Even the artists from the most remote village have songs and followers on Youtube. It was never like that.

 

I bought 3 LP's of Empire of the Sun because I discovered them on YouTube, never heard them on the Radio. I am not saying this is the ultimate solution but exposure can get you followers which may translate into revenue. Another place I like to discover artists are on Commercials.

 

I followed an artist from the Sandals resort commercial, they are just superb. Again this has nothing to do with Guitar sales but reading your frustration, maybe I am just trying to say there is a way.

 

I listen to all my African songs on Youtube and would gladly pay if these songs were available on other platforms.

 

 

[Anderton]

Interesting you mention African music. I don't know what the gigging scene is there; I've always been interested in visiting Ghana because I know people from there and the place sounds cool. But there's a lot of musical output these days coming from Africa and the Caribbean.

 

I think one reason for the supposed lack of interest in today's music is that most forms of music have reached what I call a "plateau of predictability." The "rules" for dance music or rock have become almost as rigid as the rules for a 12-bar blues. What made music vital is when it stopped turning inward and embraced that which is different - Elvis combining R&B with country, the Beatles incorporating Indian music, the Stones we-working the blues, Pink Floyd going interstellar.

 

I've seen a lot of competent bands, and entertaining ones, but I'm not seeing too many bands that excite me. For my next album project, I'm planning to incorporate an international dance flavor with electronic dance music. A lot of African music is guitar-driven, and that will work itself naturally in with the other music. I already did a "prototype" of this with "Maladie Du Coeur" from my "Neo-" album, and liked the results...now I want to take it further.

 

The biggest problem with live music is that no one needs it the same way they do groceries. So we're going to buy food no matter how it's packaged. But music has to be packaged in such a way as to create a "tractor beam" that draws people in. Granted, the loss of live venues means that it's harder than ever to find and entertain an audience. But all it takes is someone to start a movement, and the clubs will follow. Will that happen? I don't know; the odds are against it. But could it happen? Yes.

[audioicon]

Interesting you mention African music. I don't know what the gigging scene is there; I've always been interested in visiting Ghana because I know people from there and the place sounds cool. But there's a lot of musical output these days coming from Africa and the Caribbean.

 

I think one reason for the supposed lack of interest in today's music is that most forms of music have reached what I call a "plateau of predictability." The "rules" for dance music or rock have become almost as rigid as the rules for a 12-bar blues. What made music vital is when it stopped turning inward and embraced that which is different - Elvis combining R&B with country, the Beatles incorporating Indian music, the Stones we-working the blues, Pink Floyd going interstellar.

 

I've seen a lot of competent bands, and entertaining ones, but I'm not seeing too many bands that excite me. For my next album project, I'm planning to incorporate an international dance flavor with electronic dance music. A lot of African music is guitar-driven, and that will work itself naturally in with the other music. I already did a "prototype" of this with "Maladie Du Coeur" from my "Neo-" album, and liked the results...now I want to take it further.

 

The biggest problem with live music is that no one needs it the same way they do groceries. So we're going to buy food no matter how it's packaged. But music has to be packaged in such a way as to create a "tractor beam" that draws people in. Granted, the loss of live venues means that it's harder than ever to find and entertain an audience. But all it takes is someone to start a movement, and the clubs will follow. Will that happen? I don't know; the odds are against it. But could it happen? Yes.

 

 

Craig: Given your interest. The link below is a song I co-produce and performed in Ghana.

I was hired by an artist from Switzerland to re-write parts of the song in Creole because I grew-up and attended school in Sierra Leone.

 

The point is, this artist left Switzerland to make world music and the rest is history.

 

I also lived in Ivory Coast and Guinea and listen to a lot of Zouk music.

Artist like: Monique Seka, Kassav and Fela Kuti.

 

For the record this song was recorded in 1998 and I have been a member of HC since 2006. This is the first time I have ever provided a song I worked on in an HC forum.

 

https://www.reverbnation.com/joelgra...q-judsonsierra

[MikeRivers]

 

I listen to all my African songs on Youtube and would gladly pay if these songs were available on other platforms.

 

KBCS out of Seattle has a great African music show on Thursday evenings, New music, old music, from all over the continent, two really knowledgable hosts. Unless you live in the Seattle area, you can listen over the Internet and they archive the programs (audio) for two weeks, so you can listen to a recent broadcast any time you want.

 

http://kbcs.fm/programs/music-of-africa/

 

I use Total Recorder and program it to record the shows (as well as other music programs I enjoy) automatically. Then, I can listen to them from my own computer any time, or load up my phone with them for a trip.

 

 

 

[MikeRivers]

The biggest problem with live music is that no one needs it the same way they do groceries. So we're going to buy food no matter how it's packaged. But music has to be packaged in such a way as to create a "tractor beam" that draws people in. Granted, the loss of live venues means that it's harder than ever to find and entertain an audience.

 

Radio used to be that "tractor beam." You'd hear a good song on the radio and you'd buy the album. But even if there were still many stations broadcasting music, there isn't much in the way of "listening" music. Not much you'd like to sing, or invite friends over to listen to. If you're going to a dance club, you dance to it, but you wouldn't want to take the record home. And pop music that isn't rap is horribly repetitive. I heard a group on a recent rerun of Saturday Night Live a few weeks ago that didn't have but one sentence of lyrics, but they sure sang it a lot of times, so many that I don't remember it.

 

It's the independent stations that have programs with music selected by people who care about what they play. Sure, there are indie shows of music I think is pretty crappy, but there's plenty of music that makes me pay attention among those shows.

 

 

[audioicon]

 

KBCS out of Seattle has a great African music show on Thursday evenings, New music, old music, from all over the continent, two really knowledgable hosts. Unless you live in the Seattle area, you can listen over the Internet and they archive the programs (audio) for two weeks, so you can listen to a recent broadcast any time you want.

 

http://kbcs.fm/programs/music-of-africa/

 

I use Total Recorder and program it to record the shows (as well as other music programs I enjoy) automatically. Then, I can listen to them from my own computer any time, or load up my phone with them for a trip.

 

 

 

 

Mike, Thanks for the link, I am going to check it out. I am in Minnesota.

[Anderton]

For the record this song was recorded in 1998 and I have been a member of HC since 2006. This is the first time I have ever provided a song I worked on in an HC forum.

 

I'm glad you did! Very seductive music, very danceable and slinky. I love it.

[audioicon]

 

I'm glad you did! Very seductive music, very danceable and slinky. I love it.

 

 

Thanks Craig. The Guitar sound was played/produced using an instrument made with dry shell of a Pumpkin and some strings.

 

Thanks again!

[AlenK]

This thread alarmed me so much I immediately ran to my guitar and plugged it in. It made the most heart-wrenching wail I've ever heard. You're right. It's dying.

[nat whilk II]

This thread alarmed me so much I immediately ran to my guitar and plugged it in. It made the most heart-wrenching wail I've ever heard. You're right. It's dying.

 

 

Nice one.

 

We live in an incredibly hyperbolic era. Headlines and article titles especially. If guitar sales are down on some trendline, then the electric guitar is "dying". If someone criticizes anything, then it's an "attack". Any proposed legislation that slows someone's agenda for everyone is an "assault". Some occurrence typifies a trend and it's the most [insert adjective] EVER. A spike in any measurable quantity is described as "exploding". Most any activity that can become a habit is an "addiction". Any taking issue in certain touchy contexts is "hate". Bang! Biff!! Pow!!! The metaphors are all from violence, war, the extremes. Even NPR, my go-to source of relative news-sanity, proclaims that we are experiencing "Eclipse Madness"!

 

And where the articles are borderline objective, such as the medical research blurbs where some vague statistical correlation in a single study proves a "link" between X and Y...the public can be counted on to do the rest of the extrapolating into "X causes Y" and voila, confusion and error is EVERYWHERE!!

 

nat

[Ernest Buckley]

 

Not exactly...see the following from Neilsen for albums, downloads, streaming, and vinyl's combined final figures for 2015 in the US. If you take away streaming and downloads, where EDM is strongest, it drops down to 2%. The global EDM market (live performance, streaming, the whole enchilada) has increased by 3% or so in the past year, so maybe now it's at 4.5%. EDM may be "in" for people who want to make music, but it's "in" to only a small percentage of people listening to music.

 

 

 

Also considering only electric guitars is too narrow. There are stringed instruments, brass instruments, percussion instruments, and keyboard instruments. Each category remains vital in one way or another. Sure, the electric guitar has been around fro 75 years or whatever...but lutes were around long before that. Ukuleles are huge...they're the stringed instruments of today.

 

Interesting graph and definitely contradicts what I`m seeing. I don`t see people flocking to rock concerts unless its one of the bigger artists. It seems like there aren`t any new bands that are on the scene who are making a dent... The Killers are the last band I can think of who came out of the rock genre and made something of themselves. Of course, their music is also heavy with synths.

 

You would have a better understanding of guitar sales than most so I cannot argue with you. However, I would venture to say that the guys who are buying guitars are probably 45+ years of age and are buying multiple guitars now that they actually have some $$$ to burn.

 

I guess what I`m trying to say is, I don`t see the guitar as the dominant instrument in the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

[nat whilk II]

I myself would hesitate to predict the future of the electric guitar or any other instrument for that matter. By definition, it's the unexpected innovators that catch the public's attention, so creativity buck trends or it wouldn't be "creative". And predicting what the public might latch onto? Wouldn't we all love to be able to do that!

 

1983 - 1986 was not an auspicious time for electric guitar players. By that time even Van Halen was showing some signs of starting to roll down the has-been side of the big rock candy mountain - the superstar electric guitar player was just not the hot commodity any longer. The 80s hair bands, well, did not help matters to say the least. And some of those guys were players, no question, if only the music wasn't so...what it was.

 

But SRV came along, harkening back to a dead and gone genre by that date - gut bucket Texas electric blues, channeling Hendrix and Albert King like it was still 1968 or something. Before he hit the big time, we all knew him here in Austin from the late 70s, playing with LouAnn Barton, Paul Ray and the Cobras, - oh, yeah, I'd say - that guy who really tears it up like Hendrix, I thought. He's mighty good I thought back then, but he won't break into anything big unless he moves on to something less been-there-done-that.

 

So I gave up predicting musical futures after that.

 

nat

 

 

[audioicon]

 

 

Nice one.

 

We live in an incredibly hyperbolic era. Headlines and article titles especially. If guitar sales are down on some trendline, then the electric guitar is "dying". If someone criticizes anything, then it's an "attack". Any proposed legislation that slows someone's agenda for everyone is an "assault". Some occurrence typifies a trend and it's the most [insert adjective] EVER. A spike in any measurable quantity is described as "exploding". Most any activity that can become a habit is an "addiction". Any taking issue in certain touchy contexts is "hate". Bang! Biff!! Pow!!! The metaphors are all from violence, war, the extremes. Even NPR, my go-to source of relative news-sanity, proclaims that we are experiencing "Eclipse Madness"!

 

And where the articles are borderline objective, such as the medical research blurbs where some vague statistical correlation in a single study proves a "link" between X and Y...the public can be counted on to do the rest of the extrapolating into "X causes Y" and voila, confusion and error is EVERYWHERE!!

 

nat

 

 

I am Mad as hell!

Just got a nice Grill and later read someplace that eating red meat will kill me.

 

I am so sick of chicken!

 

All jokes aside, valid and interesting points.