"Buying up all the good stuff"

[Bruce Bennett]

Currently the VG market is experienceing a "Bubble"

it WILL burst.. but "when" is another question.

 

the VG market is full of knowledgable "experts" that know and understand these trends.

they know that the only safe way to buy/sell these instruments is from a "Dealer" perspective.

 

buy low, sell high.

 

that's what drives the pricing because the Dealers buy them wherever they find them, and believe me, they are out there scouring the globe for them. and they will pay at least 50% of current book value.

 

Currently, the books are WAY undervalued on about 20% of the models. this is createing a unique and somewhat dangerous market trend.

 

but as long as there are certain simple and undeniable truths out there. such as;

 

1. they are NOT making REAL 1952 teles any more.. only COPIES

 

2. The real ones are dissappearing every year due to fires, floods, Shipping accidents, general stupidity. then the number of preistine pieces IS getting smaller and therefore more valuable.

 

3. There never were THAT many of them in the first place.

just check the TOTAL production number of Les Pauls for 1958-1960 and you'll find that there were LESS than 3000 ever made altogether for those 3 years. and according to insurance loss charts, 1% of that total are counted on as being "destroyed" per year, which means that today, we should consider that at least 1300 of them are now lost forever.

 

If you look at these numbers and add the fact that the population that grew up during the "guitar culture" is now earning it's peak money right now...

then the whole market situation starts to makes sense.

 

if your the proud owner of a fine vintage piece.

keep it or sell it according to your own wishes..

 

But for the moment, we ARE in a VG bubble, and priceing will not be this high again for a good while after this bubble bursts. BUT there WILL be another bubble ( because the current one is the 5th one to happen in my lifetime)

 

what all this means is, that a lots of folks will start selling off stuff for less than it is selling for now, when this bubbles bursts.. the prices will still be higher than what they were BEFORE the bubble started, but they will be lower than they were DURING the bubble.

so save your pennies and get ready to buy even if the pricing seems high to you.

because when the bubbles hits again..

the pricing will be through the roof.

[Save The Pine Weasel]

I wonder how many of those "vintage" pieces are counterfeit.

[BootRoots]

Originally posted by Bruce Bennett because when the bubbles hits again.. the pricing will be through the roof.

 

what the hell is it through right now?

[Bruce Bennett]

Originally posted by BootRoots what the hell is it through right now?

 

well, when a brand new USA made strat "RETAILS" for 1495.00 and sells for 1049.00 at MF and a Gibson LP retails for 4469.00 and sells for 2699.00

 

the "roof" must be just above those figures..

bear in mind that the VG market is only based on American made, top name brand guitars. and that "mint condition" pieces will bring way more( the stupid pricies we all have been wigging out about) than just a good ole "Players Guitar" will. ( which would be more long the range I just exampled above)

 

and if your asking about the one off pieces like the 58-60 LPs then the roof is, what the market wiill bear.. and currently , with America's bloated middle and upper management level salaries..

I would say that a half mil is not that far out of the question.

 

I mean, a small house (1700 SQ FT) in Chicago is over 650,000.00 now. and I understand that folks are paying that and then TEARING THEM DOWN in order to make a much bigger house on the same lot.

 

the whole market is being split, the "Middle Class" no longer exsits as it did in the 50-60-70s,

now to be considered "Middle Class" you must make in the upper 6 figures and more.

which leaves only the upper class, and the poverty levels to pay for these guitars.. which is funny cuz I know lots of lower 6 fig. makers that are broke. and can no longer afford to buy a house. let alone a VG.

and if your in the 5 fig range ... your screwed.

better reach for the vasoline. or be content with chinese and korean mades. cuz even the jap mades are soon gonna be outta sight.

 

also. bear in mind that in 1958 a brand new Strat was 229.00 dollars which required that the average worker save up over 6 months to pay for it. and the 410 Bassman amp was 999.00 retail and sold for about 650.

 

so no matter how much you bitch about prices..

good quality guitars have never been cheaper than they are right now..

[jleavesl]

I doubt that the price aon alot of this stuffi s going to change dramatically. If you take a look around, the stuff that was commonplace in the stores (70's Gibsons, Strats, etc.) has pretty much vanished. They have found their way into private collections, etc. In other words, they aren't that many on the market anymore. As time progresses, unless people panic and flood the market with them, they aren't going to drop in value.

 

Personally, I hope the vintage bubble pops.... sometime around next week (payday).... I'd like to go score a couple 50's Les Pauls.

 

John

[Pwn3d]

All I know, is that somehow Im going to get {censored}ed by the economy in my life time. (not gearwise)

[Bruce Bennett]

Originally posted by Pwn3d All I know, is that somehow Im going to get {censored}ed by the economy in my life time. (not gearwise)

 

 

Amen brother.

 

Sucks don't it.

 

and it's ALL WAL-MARTS FAULT!

 

[angus_old]

it's just a bunch of wood and some wires and magnets and stuff

[chevette]

i have a feeling that cheap affordable, relatively no-name guitars (jay turser, agile, etc.) are going to become even better in quality (not necessarily those brands, but brands like them) and still remain at least *more* affordable, and that's going to come into play somewhere in here. But then you'll get the newer generations snobbery which wants the "classic" guitars of old that are vintage, even though the Tursers and Agiles of today will be much better quality than the vintages were when they were made.

[BootRoots]

Damn that Jack Bauer!

[relictele]

 

Originally posted by Treborklow If you look in the back of the book Beauty Of The Burst one can see that just a very few people own a huge chunk of the small number of '59 LPs made. And none of them appear to be rock stars. Just investors with a lot of money.

 

 

Don't even look at it.

[metalheadUK]

My dad bought me my 1976 Travis Bean in 1978.

 

It was new, but ex demo.

 

At the time here in the uk it retailed for

[Bruce Bennett]

 

Originally posted by metalheadUK My dad bought me my 1976 Travis Bean in 1978.   It was new, but ex demo.   At the time here in the uk it retailed for

[seifukusha]

there are still alot of cool guitars around, alot. it may not be a 59 paul or whatnot, but theres still alot of cool stuff if you know what you want. i was playing my 71 (not 61) gretsch last night at 4 am, and thinking it may be as desirable on the market as a 60's gretsch, but damn, if it aint sweet. i think the hunt can be just as fun, if you have an open mind

[twotubman]

Fakes are what will eventually kill the vintage guitar market.

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/1959-Gibson-Les-Paul-Standard-Guitar-Not-Reissue_W0QQitemZ220003176346

 

That guitar has never seen the inside of the Gibson factory.

[voneville]

That's okay, at least some of those so called pro's have probably boughten a few replica's without knowing it

[underblu]

 

Originally posted by Bruce Bennett I mean, a small house (1700 SQ FT) in Chicago is over 650,000.00 now. and I understand that folks are paying that and then TEARING THEM DOWN in order to make a much bigger house on the same lot. the whole market is being split, the "Middle Class" no longer exsits as it did in the 50-60-70s, now to be considered "Middle Class" you must make in the upper 6 figures and more. which leaves only the upper class, and the poverty levels to pay for these guitars.. which is funny cuz I know lots of lower 6 fig. makers that are broke. and can no longer afford to buy a house. let alone a VG. and if your in the 5 fig range ... your screwed. better reach for the vasoline. or be content with chinese and korean mades. cuz even the jap mades are soon gonna be outta sight.

 

 

Housing prices are directly correlated to interest rates. Combine very low interest rates with creative lending policies, a rather robust economy and solid GDP grwoth and housing prices will rise like a rocket. Raise interest rates to where they were in the late 70s 16+% and tighten borrowing requirements and housing prices will drop to early 90s lows if not lower.

 

Additionally, a lot of the institutional money that was made in stock market through the late 90s chased other deals after the Dot.com bubble burst. Namely commodities: oil and gold and real estate. For the past 2 years the FED has been drying up excessive capital liguidity to ward off infaltionary pressures and that trend will likely continue.

 

Now I can't tell you what the futures holds but typically things have a way of balancing out. What goes up like a rocket often comes down equally fast.

 

That is not so say that both a house and a pristine 62 Strat will likely be worth more 50 years from now than today. But the guy that thinks he's gonna flip it and make a quick buck may find himself waiting a long long time.

 

BTW I don't know where you live but folks with household incomes around here in the upper 6 range ie $700,000+ live a lot better than anything I would consider middle class.

[Fulham Fallout]

This vintage guitar thing is crazy, but I view it as a phenomenon that has little to do with me. For me a guitar is a tool that allows me to express myself in a band, and there are plenty of new, or used non-vintage, guitars around that sound just great for that. I wouldn't mind an old bashed up strat with character, but I'm buggered if I'm paying four-figures or more, when I could sound exactly the same on a

[BootRoots]

Originally posted by twotubman Fakes are what will eventually kill the vintage guitar market. http://cgi.ebay.com/1959-Gibson-Les-Paul-Standard-Guitar-Not-Reissue_W0QQitemZ220003176346 That guitar has never seen the inside of the Gibson factory.

 

how do you know?

[GibsonQC]

Bruce,

 

When were the bubble years & how long did they last? What were the peak prices during the bubbles and the low/peak prices between bubbles? Any idea when this (recent) bubble began?

[Burningleaves]

Vintage prices are insane these days. I get paranoid sometimes and think that it was big companies that bought up as many as they could to in order to create a "buzz". This "buzz" enabled them to set up a HUGE market for re-creating the "classics" as well as low priced "vintage series" types.

[Cougar Hunter]

yeah, vintage 1987 Ibanez RG-550 neon yellow mint

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$1500 buy it now.

[dewees]

I think it may be time to sell:

 

The Yellowstone caldera has erupted every 600,000 years on average, filling the sky with sun-blocking, life-choking ash for years.

 

It has been 640,000 years since it last erupted.

 

[Bruce Bennett]

 

Originally posted by GibsonQC Bruce, When were the bubble years & how long did they last? What were the peak prices during the bubbles and the low/peak prices between bubbles? Any idea when this (recent) bubble began?

 

 

the first one wasn't acknowledged as a "bubble" it was just the "begining" of the Vintage Guitar market.

and was in 1975 after the first Dallas show.

the months that followed were of folks going everywhere and buying up "old Guitars" to make a profit at next years show.

 

then again in 1983 the market took off and soared out of control for about 2 years. then prices fell to almost half in 1985 but quickly regained in 1988 until 1990 when they fell again. but not as low as before.

in 1993 they took a sharp but not as drastic upturn until 1995 when they didn't really fal but sorta stabilized for about 3 yeasr.

In 1998 the market fell with that Japanese debacle but within 8 months things started climbing again.

in 2001 a small be steady climb was noticed and continued quitely until jan 2006 when 3 business major publications produced articules on how "high quality American Made Vintage Guitars " was a good investment strategy..

after that. the prices strated going up faster than you could count..

example

the current 2006 Vintage Guitar price guide put out by VG mag. shows a 1956 Les Paul Custom with bigsby valued at 12,000.00 but we just sold one for nearly triple that.

[twotubman]

Originally posted by BootRoots how do you know?

Bid on it, if you think it's real.

 

Quite the bargain. A $300K going for $98K.

 

After you buy it, I hope you have a good lawyer. That's a 70's Greco.