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For the 7th straight year, Visa overstays surpass illeagal border crossings

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  • #16
    Originally posted by oldsoapbars View Post

    Beyond knowing how many are here. The fed, state and municipalities use the census data to do long term infrastructure planning. By example, I have a co-worker who is an Indian national. He uses the same infrastructure that I do. It's imperative to understand the growth/decline and demographic to do what is in the best interest (of who is always the debate). Whether here legally or not the impact on budgets and infrastructure is the same.
    That doesn't answer my question - at all.

    Census data is only compiled every ten years, and the US Census was last taken eight years ago, so it doesn't apply at all to the last seven years that are under discussion per the OP.

    Secondly, I suspect that not everyone who is here illegally trusts the US government to keep the census information away from ICE / Homeland Security, and therefore may not answer truthfully anyway. Besides, do they even ask you whether or not you're a US citizen on the census? Didn't a judge just say that question can not be asked on the upcoming census? If that is indeed the case (and from my recollection of the last census forms I filled out, I believe it is), then how does the census provide any data regarding the number of people who are in the US illegally?


    While I can see the reasoning behind your infrastructure comments, the census is also used to apportion representatives to the US House of Representatives; counting non-citizens in that seems to me to be granting representation in the government to non-citizens...
    **********

    "Look at it this way: think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of 'em are stupider than that."
    - George Carlin

    "It shouldn't be expected that people are necessarily doing what they appear to be doing on records."
    - Sir George Martin, All You Need Is Ears

    "The music business will be revitalized by musicians, not the labels or Live Nation. When the musicians decide to put music first, instead of money, the public will flock to the fruits and the scene will be healthy again."
    - Bob Lefsetz, The Lefsetz Letter

    Comment


    • oldsoapbars
      oldsoapbars commented
      Editing a comment
      BTW, this reply was meant for another thrwad

  • #17
    Originally posted by BA.Barcolounger View Post

    Because it is an "unknowable", they use extrapolation. The make an informed estimate based on number of captures, number of missed captures (they got away), number of people caught later on, witness reports, local law enforcement estimates and physical evidence (abandoned campouts, garbage on known routes, etc).
    So they guesstimate. Makes sense. Thank you for the reply.

    However, that extrapolated / estimated figure is still more questionable / less accurate than the figures for the visa overstays, would you not agree?
    **********

    "Look at it this way: think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of 'em are stupider than that."
    - George Carlin

    "It shouldn't be expected that people are necessarily doing what they appear to be doing on records."
    - Sir George Martin, All You Need Is Ears

    "The music business will be revitalized by musicians, not the labels or Live Nation. When the musicians decide to put music first, instead of money, the public will flock to the fruits and the scene will be healthy again."
    - Bob Lefsetz, The Lefsetz Letter

    Comment


    • #18
      Originally posted by Phil O'Keefe View Post

      That doesn't answer my question - at all.

      Census data is only compiled every ten years, and the US Census was last taken eight years ago, so it doesn't apply at all to the last seven years that are under discussion per the OP.

      Secondly, I suspect that not everyone who is here illegally trusts the US government to keep the census information away from ICE / Homeland Security, and therefore may not answer truthfully anyway. Besides, do they even ask you whether or not you're a US citizen on the census? Didn't a judge just say that question can not be asked on the upcoming census? If that is indeed the case (and from my recollection of the last census forms I filled out, I believe it is), then how does the census provide any data regarding the number of people who are in the US illegally?
      It doesn't.

      The Trump Administration was (and still is) trying to get the citizenship question added for the 2020 census. A judge struck it down, but I imagine it will eventually make it to SCOTUS.

      Comment


      • #19
        Originally posted by Phil O'Keefe View Post

        So they guesstimate. Makes sense. Thank you for the reply.

        However, that extrapolated / estimated figure is still more questionable / less accurate than the figures for the visa overstays, would you not agree?
        I would agree, based on the nature of the data.

        Comment


        • #20
          Originally posted by BA.Barcolounger View Post

          It doesn't.

          The Trump Administration was (and still is) trying to get the citizenship question added for the 2020 census. A judge struck it down, but I imagine it will eventually make it to SCOTUS.
          I don't agree with Trump on much, but I do see their point. Again, since House representation is apportioned based on census data, counting non-citizens in that would potentially lead to over-representation in the House; especially in areas with large non-citizen immigrant populations.

          By adding a question regarding citizenship to the census you would be able to better (though not completely accurately, since again, I suspect some won't trust the Census Bureau to keep the data away from ICE) determine the total number of people in a given area (for infrastructure / planning purposes) as well as the number of US citizens in the same area, for representative apportion purposes.
          **********

          "Look at it this way: think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of 'em are stupider than that."
          - George Carlin

          "It shouldn't be expected that people are necessarily doing what they appear to be doing on records."
          - Sir George Martin, All You Need Is Ears

          "The music business will be revitalized by musicians, not the labels or Live Nation. When the musicians decide to put music first, instead of money, the public will flock to the fruits and the scene will be healthy again."
          - Bob Lefsetz, The Lefsetz Letter

          Comment


          • #21
            Originally posted by Phil O'Keefe View Post

            I don't agree with Trump on much, but I do see their point. Again, since House representation is apportioned based on census data, counting non-citizens in that would potentially lead to over-representation in the House; especially in areas with large non-citizen immigrant populations.
            Though House representation is calculated using Census data, that is not the Census' constitutional purpose. It is there to count people.

            Comment


            • #22
              Originally posted by Phil O'Keefe View Post

              That doesn't answer my question - at all.

              Census data is only compiled every ten years, and the US Census was last taken eight years ago, so it doesn't apply at all to the last seven years that are under discussion per the OP.

              Secondly, I suspect that not everyone who is here illegally trusts the US government to keep the census information away from ICE / Homeland Security, and therefore may not answer truthfully anyway. Besides, do they even ask you whether or not you're a US citizen on the census? Didn't a judge just say that question can not be asked on the upcoming census? If that is indeed the case (and from my recollection of the last census forms I filled out, I believe it is), then how does the census provide any data regarding the number of people who are in the US illegally?


              While I can see the reasoning behind your infrastructure comments, the census is also used to apportion representatives to the US House of Representatives; counting non-citizens in that seems to me to be granting representation in the government to non-citizens...
              The need to count how many PEOPLE is what the census is for. Even the 14th amendment says people. Because someone is not a citizen doesn't mean that they don't impact the area where they live. Yes, I agree that ILLEGAL aliens very likely won't send in a census form, the millions of LEGAL immigrants will, or at least should be counted. The legal immigrants are here paying into SS, Medicare and taxes. If the legal immigrants aren't counted or dismissed they will be a victim of what spawned the American Revolution. That would be taxation without representation.

              Comment


              • #23
                Would anyone disagree that this war has multiple fronts?
                EVERYTHING I type (i.e. not a link or video) is only my opinion. In a sane world, that should not have to be said. But then, we are not living in a sane world, are we?

                Comment


                • Tom Hicks
                  Tom Hicks commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Or the need to be Frugal and not wasting taxpayer money on largely symbolic political exclamation points like a vanity wall.

                • Easy Listener
                  Easy Listener commented
                  Editing a comment
                  It's not symbolic any more than locking your car to prevent theft is symbolic.

                • Easy Listener
                  Easy Listener commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Frugal? Where I live it may be "frugal" to not bother spraying for insects, but if you don't do it, your house may fall down.

                  Same difference

              • #24
                Originally posted by Easy Listener View Post
                Would anyone disagree that this war has multiple fronts?
                I agree. It sure does have multiple fronts. None of which a physical wall will fix.
                tRump is NO star player. The ball simply bounced in his direction.

                Comment


                • #25
                  Originally posted by BA.Barcolounger View Post

                  Though House representation is calculated using Census data, that is not the Census' constitutional purpose. It is there to count people.
                  Sorry, but that is incorrect.

                  Originally apportionment was covered under Article One, Section 2, Clause 3 of the Constitution:

                  Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons.

                  The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at least one Representative...



                  Underlined emphasis added by me to show where the "numbers" (i.e. census data) is relevant to the apportionment of Representatives.


                  However, that changed with the passage of the 14th Amendment.

                  Section 2 of the 14th Amendment says:

                  Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed.[4] But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State.

                  Why were untaxed Indians not counted? Because they were citizens of their respective nations, and NOT considered to be citizens of the United States at the time the 14th Amendment was ratified.

                  While the way that people are counted changed under the 14th Amendment, Constitutionally, census data has always been used to apportion Representatives to the House. It's been part of the reason behind a national census ever since the Constitution was ratified.
                  **********

                  "Look at it this way: think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of 'em are stupider than that."
                  - George Carlin

                  "It shouldn't be expected that people are necessarily doing what they appear to be doing on records."
                  - Sir George Martin, All You Need Is Ears

                  "The music business will be revitalized by musicians, not the labels or Live Nation. When the musicians decide to put music first, instead of money, the public will flock to the fruits and the scene will be healthy again."
                  - Bob Lefsetz, The Lefsetz Letter

                  Comment


                  • #26
                    Originally posted by oldsoapbars View Post

                    The need to count how many PEOPLE is what the census is for. Even the 14th amendment says people. Because someone is not a citizen doesn't mean that they don't impact the area where they live. Yes, I agree that ILLEGAL aliens very likely won't send in a census form, the millions of LEGAL immigrants will, or at least should be counted. The legal immigrants are here paying into SS, Medicare and taxes. If the legal immigrants aren't counted or dismissed they will be a victim of what spawned the American Revolution. That would be taxation without representation.
                    If you're not a citizen, you don't get to vote. IMO you shouldn't have, nor do you deserve, representation in Congress unless you're a citizen.

                    Want to vote? Want representation? Then become a naturalized citizen.

                    If I go to Australia or Japan to live on a long-term visa, I don't get to vote in their elections, nor do I have any right to be represented in their government because I'm not a citizen of those countries. That's significantly different than the Colonies before the American Revolution - those were British subjects who had no representation in their own country's government, thus no say in whether and how they were being taxed.

                    I can see why liberals want to make sure this question isn't on the census, since it could potentially lead to greater representation for them in the House. Non-citizens can't (legally) vote, but if they're counted in the census, it can (and I suspect does) lead to more Democratically controlled seats in the House of Representatives than they'd have if only citizens were to be counted for the purpose of apportionment.
                    **********

                    "Look at it this way: think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of 'em are stupider than that."
                    - George Carlin

                    "It shouldn't be expected that people are necessarily doing what they appear to be doing on records."
                    - Sir George Martin, All You Need Is Ears

                    "The music business will be revitalized by musicians, not the labels or Live Nation. When the musicians decide to put music first, instead of money, the public will flock to the fruits and the scene will be healthy again."
                    - Bob Lefsetz, The Lefsetz Letter

                    Comment


                    • #27
                      Regardless of the accuracy of the numbers a Wall will just encourage even more to arrive by plane or bus or boat making the Wall ineffective in the end. About the only people the Wall will keep out are dirt poor Mexicans who live near the border.

                      Comment


                      • #28
                        Originally posted by Alndln3 View Post
                        Regardless of the accuracy of the numbers a Wall will just encourage even more to arrive by plane or bus or boat making the Wall ineffective in the end.
                        You can't enter by plane, boat or bus without having a visa to begin with. If those who cross the border illegally could get a visa and merely overstay it, I suspect they would. Not everyone can get an entry visa...


                        About the only people the Wall will keep out are dirt poor Mexicans who live near the border.
                        Mexican immigration has supposedly been declining... now it's the "dirt poor" coming from Central America who comprise the majority of undocumented immigrants who cross the southern border - at least according to what has been posted here in previous discussions on the subject.
                        **********

                        "Look at it this way: think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of 'em are stupider than that."
                        - George Carlin

                        "It shouldn't be expected that people are necessarily doing what they appear to be doing on records."
                        - Sir George Martin, All You Need Is Ears

                        "The music business will be revitalized by musicians, not the labels or Live Nation. When the musicians decide to put music first, instead of money, the public will flock to the fruits and the scene will be healthy again."
                        - Bob Lefsetz, The Lefsetz Letter

                        Comment


                        • #29
                          Originally posted by Phil O'Keefe View Post

                          So they guesstimate. Makes sense. Thank you for the reply.

                          However, that extrapolated / estimated figure is still more questionable / less accurate than the figures for the visa overstays, would you not agree?
                          I extrapolate that the number of illegal border crossing surpasses visa over-stays based on the number of illegal aliens I see in my game cameras each year.
                          Last edited by nedezero1; 01-17-2019, 01:18 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #30
                            Originally posted by Phil O'Keefe View Post

                            You can't enter by plane, boat or bus without having a visa to begin with. If those who cross the border illegally could get a visa and merely overstay it, I suspect they would. Not everyone can get an entry visa...
                            I guess things have changed since I last traveled/toured abroad. Back then I only needed my Passport.

                            Mexican immigration has supposedly been declining... now it's the "dirt poor" coming from Central America who comprise the majority of undocumented immigrants who cross the southern border - at least according to what has been posted here in previous discussions on the subject.
                            Unless they are part of a Caravan (rare event) with families helping each other out I can't imagine a poor person walking from lets say El Salvador all the way through Mexico and through the border evading border patrol and then miles through a desert to a city here. Then what? Rob a gas station? I can't imagine what small percentage that makes up.
                            Last edited by Alndln3; 01-17-2019, 01:22 PM.

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