Predicting public trends

[Dancebass]

Is anyone good at this?

 

I am astonishingly horrible at it. If I were ever given an A&R position I would get my ass fired in about 3 weeks. I suck so bad at gauging what the general population is going to get into.

 

I remember when I saw that first Britney Spears video of her in the school girl outfit. My wife and I laughed our asses off. We were like "who the hell is going to buy that crap!" Ha ha. Missed that one!

 

I think I'm so bad at it that I've decided that anything that makes me wretch originally is going to be huge. I should just follow the opposite of my instincts, for example I predict that Adam Lambert is going to be stupid huge! Let's see if this works any better for me.

[sabriel9v]

 

for example I predict that Adam Lambert is going to be stupid huge!

 

 

Why wouldn't that fruit be huge? He's got a huge money machine behind him.

 

Predicting public trends is easy.

 

1) Look at who the labels and major companies are putting the most behind. But always recognize that the "money machine" cannot be trusted. Right now Lady Gaga is very popular, but I predict she'll be done by next year, but she'll pop back up again when her label decides to put another 500 grand into promoting her single. Too bad music fans wont care at that point.

 

or

 

2) Find a target demographic and find out which artists are packing out the clubs and catering to that same demographic in the underground. You really just need to keep your ear to the streets.

[Scafeets]

 

You really just need to keep your ear to the streets.

 

This helps.

 

I'm with Dancebass....

I'll never be able to figure out what the hell people want until after they want it. I worked for three major labels and, although I wanted to be in A&R, they were all smart enough to keep me out of the club.

[sabriel9v]

 

This helps. I'm with Dancebass.... I'll never be able to figure out what the hell people want until after they want it. I worked for three major labels and, although I wanted to be in A&R, they were all smart enough to keep me out of the club.

 

 

You criticize all my points, but then admit that you don't even know how to predict public trends.

[sabriel9v]

I predict that Drake will be huge in 2010, he's already big, but he's going to be even bigger. Fleet Foxes, Animal Collective, St. Vincent, and Grizzly Bear will also gain more popularity, but will still be relegated to the indie music realm. And then of course one of the bigger more established acts will release something and we'll hear all about it in various magazines, radio, and on tv.

[Dancebass]

I think music is too personal for me. I can't get past my own opinions enough to be objective. For example; when I was young Alice In Chains put out Facelift around the same time Nirvana came out with Nevermind. The whole Seattle thing was on in a big way. I remember loving the Alice In Chains record and just liking Nevermind.

 

To this day, I still think the better band got the shorter end of the stick. Not to say Alice In Chains hasn't had a great career, but there really isn't any comparison as far as which one had more success.

 

In some ways you could say I was "wrong", maybe I am, I know it's subjective but my tastes just didn't line up with the populace. They rarely do it seems.

[Scafeets]

 

You criticize all my points, but then admit that you don't even know how to predict public trends.

 

 

Correct. Just because I'm no Clive Davis doesn't mean that you are.

Your main point seems to be "throw enough money at the project and you can manufacture a hit." This is preposterous.

 

"Predicting trends is easy" is simply not true. That's why the most successful record companies only succeed 20% of the time.

[sabriel9v]

 

Correct. Just because I'm no Clive Davis doesn't mean that you are. Your main point seems to be "throw enough money at the project and you can manufacture a hit." This is preposterous. "Predicting trends is easy" is simply not true. That's why the most successful record companies only successful 20% of the time.

 

 

No, thats not my main point. If that was my main point, I would have clearly worded and articulated that. One of my main points is that who will be famous in 2010 is whoever the label puts the most money behind. Who did we hear about in 2009? Jay-Z, Kanye West, Taylor Swift, Lady Gaga, Wale, John Mayer, Coldplay, all of these artists have money machines behind them.

 

The real artists are the people like Fleet Foxes and St. Vincent who come out with genuinely amazing records and they have received a decent amount of exposure in 09 as well. They're just going to get bigger.

[3shiftgtr]

Warners Nashville is the label where artists go to die. They basically record your album, then test market you in a medium market with a radio promotion (a live show at a radio 'fest', week long plays, drive time interviews, newspaper etc.) and if you hit, you've got some cash. If not, you go back on the shelf til next year.

 

I was chatting up the A&R guy for the artist I played for and he said something that relates here.

 

From memory: "No one will ever be big again. You'll never see Shania or Garth numbers again, cuz nothing is new. Media proliferation makes nothing special. "Attention Shoppers" is virtually impossible cuz nothing can feel new anymore. Our job is to throw it against the wall and see if it sticks."

 

Therefore, trendwise, the shtick is the thing. It is paramount to the music. You've got to be Lady GooGoo to get anywhere. Predicting trends is a bitch, but if you see something that gets your attention visually, and it is just a little catchy.....

[Poker99]

 

No, thats not my main point. If that was my main point, I would have clearly worded and articulated that. One of my main points is that who will be famous in 2010 is whoever the label puts the most money behind. Who did we hear about in 2009? Jay-Z, Kanye West, Taylor Swift, Lady Gaga, Wale, John Mayer, Coldplay, all of these artists have money machines behind them. The real artists are the people like Fleet Foxes and St. Vincent who come out with genuinely amazing records and they have received a decent amount of exposure in 09 as well. They're just going to get bigger.

 

 

Absolutely.

[pdiddy]

IMHO Trends are fear driven. Example, once aids came out - end of long hair, grungy look. I guess that translates into - whatever it take to get laid...

[sabriel9v]

I think these guys could be big in 2010 if they play their cards right, I'm really digging their song Grim Reaper Blues

 

http://www.myspace.com/entrancerecords

[richardmac]

I predict that... um... sorry, I was looking at sabriel9v's new avatar and I totally forgot what I was going to say. I predict that he will one day replace the hot chick with a picture of an old fat guy, so it's important that I point this out so that when he does my post won't look strange.

[BlueStrat]

We are living in the future

I'll yell ya how I know

I read it in the paper

fifteen years ago

now we're all driving rocket ships

and talking with our minds

wearing turquoise jewelry

and standing in soup lines

 

-john prine

[sabriel9v]

I predict that... um... sorry, I was looking at sabriel9v's new avatar and I totally forgot what I was going to say. I predict that he will one day replace the hot chick with a picture of an old fat guy, so it's important that I point this out so that when he does my post won't look strange.

 

Hmm, the fat guy's not happening any time soon