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Your Predictions for the Music Industry in 2015


Anderton

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I'm thinking specifically music industry, not record industry...this can be about technology, the future of stores vs. e-commerce, whether the desire of people to make music will continue or decline, etc. I'm interested in your thoughts before I share mine.

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Very interesting question. I believe that online will gain a stronger foothold, BUT (and a big but), safer more reliable shipping will have to be developed along with better packaging. Also, I think a credit card secured "try before you buy" program will need to be developed. Instruments are personal. People (for the most part) are tactile. The like to "touch and feel" instruments. The plus side for the MI online retailer will be that instruments are by and large an emotional buy. If they can get a guitar in a potential buyers hands after he has had a chance to thoroughly check it out online with a "personal shopper", you will probably have the customer hooked once he has it in his hands and developed a bond.

Just my two pennies.

 

D

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I think manufacturing cool stuff became so easy there's a glut of all kinds of gear and worse, unrealistic investment. Marketing has to push beyond actual demand which probably tapers drastically below the top 10% of gigging pros.The industry relies on inflated prices and disposable stock to make up the difference and keep the machine fueled.

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Speaking of marketing, clicking the Drasp amp review on the front page returns this:

[h=1]A Database Error Occurred[/h] Error Number: 1064

You have an error in your SQL syntax; check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near 'AND ntv.contenttypeid = 22 AND ntv.publishdate is not null AND ntv.publishdate >' at line 5

SELECT *, 'expert-reviews' as content_type FROM ( SELECT ntv.* FROM forum.NODE_TEXT_VIEW ntv JOIN hc_product_catalog.nodes_categories nc ON ntv.nodeid = nc.nodeid WHERE ntv.parentid = AND ntv.contenttypeid = 22 AND ntv.publishdate is not null AND ntv.publishdate > ntv.unpublishdate ORDER BY ntv.publishdate DESC) t1 WHERE t1.publishdate < (SELECT publishdate FROM forum.node WHERE nodeid = 31309143) LIMIT 1

Filename: /var/www/hc_reviews/hc_application/models/blog_model.php

Line Number: 1650

 

The feedback button gets the same thing.

 

 

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I think its going to be a very interesting year. With Youtube's new upcoming music service, things will change a lot. Even Soundcloud is changing their service to monetize it somehow. I think record sales may continue to drop due to these factors. Though things have been somewhat conflicting lately, with more and more artists boycotting many streaming services. We'll have to wait and see how things unfold in the coming year.

 

In terms of the technology front, I think there might be more mobile-friendly products being introduced. All sorts of gear and equipment that can interface with tablets/smartphones. Will it greatly impact the way we record? I don't really think so. I think of those type of products as more of a niche market though their intention is to reach a broader market. The whole idea of recording "on the go" is contradictory. You can make recording more "convenient" but it kind of goes against the proper way of doing things, like setting up a studio space and going for quality sound.

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The industry relies on inflated prices and disposable stock to make up the difference and keep the machine fueled.

 

I'd have to disagree in most cases about inflated prices. Margins are very low for manufacturers and for retailers because price competition is so stiff. This is how you end up with situations like companies grossing much more than previous years, but netting much less.

 

Margins aren't quite as bad as the consumer electronics market, but heading in that direction.

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I've been wrong about the future of the music industry so many times, I won't be guessing again. Sure things: People will continue to make music. Most of it won't go very far. Ampex won't get back into the tape deck business, and software will continue to be more complex and do add more features that only a few pepole will ever really need and Tech Support can't explain clearly.

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Speaking of marketing, clicking the Drasp amp review on the front page returns this:

[h=1]A Database Error Occurred[/h] Error Number: 1064

You have an error in your SQL syntax; check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near 'AND ntv.contenttypeid = 22 AND ntv.publishdate is not null AND ntv.publishdate >' at line 5

SELECT *, 'expert-reviews' as content_type FROM ( SELECT ntv.* FROM forum.NODE_TEXT_VIEW ntv JOIN hc_product_catalog.nodes_categories nc ON ntv.nodeid = nc.nodeid WHERE ntv.parentid = AND ntv.contenttypeid = 22 AND ntv.publishdate is not null AND ntv.publishdate > ntv.unpublishdate ORDER BY ntv.publishdate DESC) t1 WHERE t1.publishdate

Filename: /var/www/hc_reviews/hc_application/models/blog_model.php

Line Number: 1650

 

The feedback button gets the same thing.

 

 

 

Thanks for calling my attention to this.

We rolled some new code and this seems to be the only fallout (that we know of).

D

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I'd have to disagree in most cases about inflated prices. Margins are very low for manufacturers and for retailers because price competition is so stiff. This is how you end up with situations like companies grossing much more than previous years, but netting much less.

 

Margins aren't quite as bad as the consumer electronics market, but heading in that direction.

 

I'm no economist obviously but some quick arithmetic shows everybody making no money resulting in trillion dollar consortiums. It doesn't take but a few more assumptions to conclude that inflated numbers = liquidity = the wealth.

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On the recording industry side, I think we'll see more of artists integrating their music with other forms of media. For example, the Foo Fighters have a new career performing in music documentaries, and a variety of artists work as TV talent judges while also showcasing their own music on those shows. The hot new trend seems to be album apps, and it'll be interesting to see how artists embrace this new way of releasing their music in 2015. Boom or bust, I think we'll see an increasing number of album apps for at least the next year or two—until we see how well the market embraces them anyway.

 

As for MI, I don't see an end to lower profit margins; but I also don't think MI profit margins will ever sink to the low of flat screen TV margins. iPad music making apps will increase in sales and popularity as the iPad increases in power and ability to become more of a one stop music production machine.

 

As for music making, I think at some point people will begin to tire of their isolated musical niches and we'll see new fusions of styles emerge: perhaps acoustic with electronic or cutting edge mixed with retro; but this may not happen as early as 2015.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

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I'm thinking specifically music industry' date=' not record industry...this can be about technology, the future of stores vs. e-commerce, whether the desire of people to make music will continue or decline, etc. I'm interested in your thoughts before I share mine.[/quote']

 

Modular synthesis will continue to grow more and more popular, inching its way toward mainstream electronic keyboards.

 

Piggybacking on this, electronic instruments, both hardware and software, will become increasingly customizable both physically (ordering them) and virtually, through modeling.

 

More stuff will be in the cloud, including virtual instruments. DAWs will be increasingly offered on a subscription basis similar to how Photoshop is offered now.

 

Computers will be able to increasingly not just tell you what error is occurring, but fix themselves. I actually don't know that this is going to happen. I'm just trying to put it out there in the universe.

 

 

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I'm no economist obviously but some quick arithmetic shows everybody making no money resulting in trillion dollar consortiums. It doesn't take but a few more assumptions to conclude that inflated numbers = liquidity = the wealth.

 

For me, the economy is anannoyance rather than a hardship. My major source of income is a retirement pension from the Government, and that increases by a few hundred dollars a year that they laughingly call the "cost of living adjustment." It usuallly just barely covers the annual increase in my health insurance.

 

"Mad money" like for writing a magazine article or getting someone to pay me to help them over a problem in their studio has just about gone away. That averaged about $1,500 a year during the active years, and that was money that I spent on hotels and flights to attend AES and NAMM shows, just about break-even. I still do those shows and graciouisly give away my reports, but I have to take money out of the "salary" for it.

 

It's really the little stuff that annoys me. The $5 sandwich for lunch of as little as two years ago is now $7. That's a 40% increase, compared to the 1.5% "raise" It's the increase in the weekly spending of pocket money that I notice. Fortunately I don't need any more audio gear and I only change my guitar strings once or twice a year.

 

As far as the music industry goes, I feel a little guilty about not spending much money that supports artists. For one thing, there aren't that many that I really like that much any more. For another, live shows are getting expensive enough so I just don't want to attend. For example, I'd love to see The Time Jumpers playing in a local club here tonight, but it's Fu%#$@!$ 59.50! And on top of that, you're expected to order at least a couple of beers (plus tax and tip) and have dinner (mediocre) if you want to get a table close to the stage. I'll put on their first CD that I bought for $10 and I can still enjoy them. I hope they're being well paid for this (rare) tour. Maybe being a session musician in Nashville isn't quite the money machine it used to be.

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iPad music making apps will increase in sales and popularity as the iPad increases in power and ability to become more of a one stop music production machine.

 

 

Not sure about that one. With very rare exceptions, companies just don't make money on iPad apps. The two main reasons are the initial low cost, which requires selling in huge quantities, and the frequent fixes that are required to keep up with iOS, and which users expect for free. In-app purchasing helps, but not enough to push iPad ventures into profitability. I don't know any MI companies that are thrilled with their mobile apps...they are seeing the iPad mostly as a way to provide a ready-to-go GUI for hardware.

 

The Android situation is worse, because the OS is inherently non-real-time. Some Samsung phones have an OS that works for audio, but until all Android phones can do near real-time audio, music-making apps will have a limited appeal.

 

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2015 PREDICTIONS

 

1) Mark will eventually come to the Dark Side and start using his DAW full time.

 

2.) Ken will stun the photography world and start to take day photography.

 

3.) Jeff da Weasel will continue to write very cool tunes.

 

4.) Craig`s hairline will no longer exist and Lee Knight will have a hair implant.

 

5.) Beck will return in full force, apologize for his behavior, then within 6 months will make another claim he can not support with facts but tell us we are not smart or good enough to understand his higher level of thinking and being.

 

6.) This site will undergo yet another re-design that will completely shut out the remaining members of this once thriving forum. Yes, we`ll eventually get back on but half the features will not work.

 

7.) George Clooney, Brad Pitt, and Kanye West will all be single by 2016.

 

8.) Some 12 year old will have a #1 hit completely produced on their iPhone.

 

9.) Justin Self will have a girlfriend.

 

10.) Ani will return!

 

 

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Not sure about that one. With very rare exceptions, companies just don't make money on iPad apps. The two main reasons are the initial low cost, which requires selling in huge quantities, and the frequent fixes that are required to keep up with iOS, and which users expect for free. In-app purchasing helps, but not enough to push iPad ventures into profitability. I don't know any MI companies that are thrilled with their mobile apps...they are seeing the iPad mostly as a way to provide a ready-to-go GUI for hardware.

 

The Android situation is worse, because the OS is inherently non-real-time. Some Samsung phones have an OS that works for audio, but until all Android phones can do near real-time audio, music-making apps will have a limited appeal.

 

I'm sure—as a keyboard player—my perspective is skewed toward virtual instrument apps, the latest one that has the keyboard community abuzz is Korg's announced Module for iPad. It will offer an in-app purchase of Synthogy's Ivory Mobile Grand, another exciting prospect! Perhaps the iPad offers new life for older VIs—like Z3TA+ iOS—without overtaxing manufacturer resources?

 

The iPad also shows a lot of potential on the controller front—Lemur, TouchOSC, and V-Control Pro are all worth a look.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

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The controller aspect is valid, that's what I mean by a ready-to-go GUI for hardware. As to instruments, companies like Korg and Cakewalk are big enough that iOS apps are "advertising for which you get paid." But despite z3ta+ being the best-selling music app in the App store for a while, that wouldn't be enough to build a company around.

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I've worked mostly for manufacturers for the past 38 years so tend to see things from that perspective more then small items that may pop up then disappear. I see nothing major happening by major manufacturers and in fact there are major market issues in countries like Japan right now. I don't see this holiday season as turning into a bonanza for music gear manufacturers and retailers seeing most of the young musicians who would normally buy new gear don't even have jobs. Add to that the political climate all I see happening is business holding their own and maybe even decreasing a bit. More of that sucking sound as companies are continuing to move their operations overseas.

 

Technology wise, there will likely to be some continuance of making things smaller and smarter, but those aren't big income generators unless they sell a butt load of them. Maybe someone will get lucky and score with a "have to have" item but I'm thinking that trend has been dead for a good two years now.

 

It could have climbed much higher but the economy is two weak to support the "Keep up with the Jonse's" mentality. Many people have cut off those kinds of purchases and found their lives didn't come to an end if they didn't have the latest cell phone, or designer of gear. I'd actually give it another two years before we see any major movements happening. Manufacturers have battened down the hatches and aren't spending much money on being innovative. Those that were didn't see the kinds of returns on those investments they had hoped for so I blame that on their inability to see the market for what it is.

 

In another year we'll at least have elections starting and allot of money goes into advertisements. Those advertisements are produces by professionals who do use studios and such so some people will earn some money there. Media companies will put a certain amount of money toward buying/leasing new gear. Your big companies would rather lease then buy that gear. This way they turn it in to leasing companies and get the latest stuff available as a replacement. Since they're making monthly payments leasing or buying, it keeps them from getting stuck with obsolete stuff when they lease because they just give it back to the leasing company and get all the latest stuff.

 

There are many of these business cycles that occur based on how businesses do business, but the thing that hurts them all is not having buyers. My company has about 2500 companies we do business with. Many are major corporations, some are government, many are public and private. This year I've seen a huge increase in gear repossessions from Government accounts for non payments. Most of these are schools and local offices and this makes you realize a few big things.

 

The government's use of electronic gear has been hog wild for about 10 years straight. The bank failures didn't leave a blip on the screen to them yet they were screaming the loudest with their hands out for more and took it. You would think they struck gold with all the spending they do buying new gear and running it well beyond its limitations.

 

Something happened this year and its come to a grinding halt. They aren't paying their bills which is a sign they are way over budget and cant raise taxes to feed the monster. They have no alternative but to cut back and the sound of the shrinkage is notable. Normally they are spending all that money up last minute just so they can raise their budget next year. I believe they were told they have to do what all companies have been having to do for years no, and wither live within their budget or cut back.

 

In companies, I see no indicators of any ramping up in production for next year. I may be wrong and I cant predict small bumps that may come along, I'm just not seeing companies spend money when normally they are ramping up buying new gear for next year.

 

I think you'll be lucky for things to continue as flat they have been and the biggest thing you'll see a huge rise in inflation. We were warned about it coming but no one believe it. Take a look at the cost of goods nest time you're out and you'll see how most of those items have doubled in cost over the past year then realize that's just the beginning.

 

Along with that its the end of the year when companies lay off employees so they can balance they books Every fall between now and the first of the year companies lay off people based on their profitability for the year. The people who will be laid off are already targeted and will get that big surprise before the first of the year.

 

So my doom and gloom prediction is screw the growth predictions in audio or anything else musical. Lets just hope everyone here will keep their jobs first.

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There have been so many astute and educated predictions here...I'll just go with what I know will be true. Kids will still pick up guitars and keyboards and drumsticks and practice and dream. While the recording methods and hardware will change, people will still make music, the best of them because they are compelled to

.

The marketing platforms will scale according to the demand. Money will still control what the public hears for the most part.

 

Les Pauls, 335's, Strats and Teles will still be very popular, sought after guitars.

 

My '67 Super Reverb will still howl and buzz and piss off my neighbors.

Ok, that's all I got.

 

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