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  • Moore's Law thought experiment: life pre-dates Earth by several billion years

    http://io9.com/moores-law-predicts-life-originated-billions-of-years-476129496

     

    A new study co-authored by a geneticist at the National Institutes of Health concludes that life originated elsewhere in the Universe around 9.8 billion years ago

    Keep the company of those who seek the truth, and run from those who have found it.

    -- Vaclav Havel

    The Universe is unimaginably vast. For small creatures such as we the vastness is bearable only through love.

    -- Carl Sagan


    Life - the way it really is - is a battle not between Bad and Good but between Bad and Worse.

    -- Joseph Brodsky

  • #2

    "This cosmic time scale for the evolution of life has important consequences: life took ca. 5 billion years to reach the complexity of bacteria; the environments in which life originated and evolved to the prokaryote stage may have been quite different from those envisaged on Earth; there was no intelligent life in our universe prior to the origin of Earth, thus Earth could not have been deliberately seeded with life by intelligent aliens; Earth was seeded by panspermia; experimental replication of the origin of life from scratch may have to emulate many cumulative rare events; and the Drake equation for guesstimating the number of civilizations in the universe is likely wrong, as intelligent life has just begun appearing in our universe."

     

    ain't that a kick, in the head!

    Comment


    • #3

      If that is true then in the cosmos where did life originate and how did it travel to earth?

      Originally Posted by Papa Grizzly


      Auntie Em just piddled her knickers.









      Originally Posted by 55gibby


      It's OK that you're a dumbass... but it's not OK that you're boring. If you're going to be stupid, a least be funny









      Originally Posted by Hoddy


      First off, I'm not Hoddy, and secondly as far as groveling is concerned, probably about as much as Johnny66 or Daddysguitar did when they were banned.

      Comment


      • yumpy
        yumpy commented
        Editing a comment

        newbie chick wrote:

        If that is true then in the cosmos where did life originate and how did it travel to earth?


         seed planets. 

        blown up to spread the seeds. 

        or GOD. lol!

         

         

         

         


    • #4

      One quibble, Moore's law (at least in the paper in which Gordon Moore initially postulated the trend) does not state that performance will double every 18 months. Moore has disapproved of such interpretations. Writing a research paper on the subject relating to alternative semiconductor tech at the moment.

      Great transactions with: http://www.thegearpage.net/board/sho...&postcount=438

      Spam: http://acapella.harmony-central.com/...House-Cleaning

      Comment


      • #5
        Not to mention that we are in the midst of witnessing the breakdown of Moore's Law in computers right now.
        Keep the company of those who seek the truth, and run from those who have found it.

        -- Vaclav Havel

        The Universe is unimaginably vast. For small creatures such as we the vastness is bearable only through love.

        -- Carl Sagan


        Life - the way it really is - is a battle not between Bad and Good but between Bad and Worse.

        -- Joseph Brodsky

        Comment


        • bluzboy
          bluzboy commented
          Editing a comment

          Red Ant wrote:
          Not to mention that we are in the midst of witnessing the breakdown of Moore's Law in computers right now.

           

          I was thinking of that.  

          It's essentially basing one theory on another.  But it's possible that Moore's Law is flawed, just as it could be possible that genetic diversity is dependent on other factors.  


        • newbie chick
          newbie chick commented
          Editing a comment

          Red Ant wrote:
          Not to mention that we are in the midst of witnessing the breakdown of Moore's Law in computers right now.

          Moore predicted that point almost 10 years ago.

           

          On 13 April 2005, Gordon Moore stated in an interview that the law cannot be sustained indefinitely: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens". He also noted that transistors would eventually reach the limits of miniaturization at atomic levels:

          In terms of size [of transistors] you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far

        • mmolteratx
          mmolteratx commented
          Editing a comment

          Red Ant wrote:
          Not to mention that we are in the midst of witnessing the breakdown of Moore's Law in computers right now.

          Yea, the period it takes to double transistor count is actually expected to increase to ~36 months by the end of the year. Minimum channel length for MOSFETs is estimated to be ~4.5-5.9nm, which we're actually very close to hitting, though it's possible we won't even be able to hit that without encountering thermal problems. I believe current channel length is ~25nm on Intel's current 22nm process. Curious to see where we go from here. A research group at Stanford invented the biological analog to the transistor last month, which will allow for logical processes. Still years away from an equivalent to current tech in that area though.


      • #6
        Its VERY tenuous. But I thought it was an interesting attempt at backtracking.
        Keep the company of those who seek the truth, and run from those who have found it.

        -- Vaclav Havel

        The Universe is unimaginably vast. For small creatures such as we the vastness is bearable only through love.

        -- Carl Sagan


        Life - the way it really is - is a battle not between Bad and Good but between Bad and Worse.

        -- Joseph Brodsky

        Comment


        • #7
          The other thing the article mentions is that we don't have a consensus on what the definition of "complexity" is
          Keep the company of those who seek the truth, and run from those who have found it.

          -- Vaclav Havel

          The Universe is unimaginably vast. For small creatures such as we the vastness is bearable only through love.

          -- Carl Sagan


          Life - the way it really is - is a battle not between Bad and Good but between Bad and Worse.

          -- Joseph Brodsky

          Comment


          • SteinbergerHack
            SteinbergerHack commented
            Editing a comment

            Red Ant wrote:
            The other thing the article mentions is that we don't have a consensus on what the definition of "complexity" is

            Certainly, and I think there is also the small matter of self-awareness, and how that may impact the rate of change.  Sentient beings have the ability to either reinforce characteristics and thus slow dow diversification, or in fact accelerate it through intentional experimentation.  We have seen examples of both (I could actually point to some of each solely in Nazi Germany), so it would be interesting to see which direction is more prevalent, and whether or not it impacts the long-term trend...


        • #8
          Yep, "biocomputing" is one of the directions for sure. It makes sense, considering the most poweful logic processor known is embedded in a couple of pounds of meat
          Keep the company of those who seek the truth, and run from those who have found it.

          -- Vaclav Havel

          The Universe is unimaginably vast. For small creatures such as we the vastness is bearable only through love.

          -- Carl Sagan


          Life - the way it really is - is a battle not between Bad and Good but between Bad and Worse.

          -- Joseph Brodsky

          Comment


          • yumpy
            yumpy commented
            Editing a comment

            Red Ant wrote:
            Yep, "biocomputing" is one of the directions for sure. It makes sense, considering the most poweful logic processor known is embedded in a couple of pounds of meat

            wow, don't have time to address this, right now. 

            but just think of the implications. 


          • moogerfooger
            moogerfooger commented
            Editing a comment

            Red Ant wrote:
            Yep, "biocomputing" is one of the directions for sure. It makes sense, considering the most poweful logic processor known is embedded in a couple of pounds of meat

            Imagine, if you will, the leader of the fifth invader force speaking to the commander in chief...

            "They're made out of meat."

            "Meat?"

            "Meat. They're made out of meat."

            "Meat?!?"

            "There's no doubt about it. We picked several from different parts of the planet, took them aboard our recon vessels, probed them all the way through. They're completely meat."

            "That's impossible. What about the radio signals? The messages to the stars."

            "They use the radio waves to talk, but the signals don't come from them. The signals come from machines."

            "So who made the machines? That's who we want to contact!"

            "They made the machines. That's what I'm trying to tell you. Meat made the machines!"

            "That's ridiculous! How can meat make a machine? You're asking me to believe in sentient meat?"

            "I'm not asking you, I'm telling you. These creatures are the only sentient race in the sector and they're made out of meat."

            "Maybe they're like the Orfolei. You know, a carbon-based intelligence that goes through a meat stage?"

            "Nope. They're born meat and they die meat. We studied them for several of their life spans, which didn't take too long. Do you have any idea the life span of meat?

            "Spare me. Okay, maybe they're only part meat. You know, like the Weddilei. A meat head with an electron plasma brain inside?"

            "Nope. We thought of that, since they do have meat heads like the Weddilei. But I told you, we probed them. They're meat all the way through."

            "No brain?"

            "Oh, there's a brain all right. It's just that the brain is made out of meat!"

            "So... what does the thinking?"

            "You're not understanding, are you? The brain does the thinking. The meat."

            "Thinking meat?!? You're asking me to believe in thinking meat?"

            "Yes, thinking meat! Conscious meat! Living meat! Dreaming meat! The meat is the whole deal! Are you getting the picture?!?"

            "Omigod. You're serious then. They're made out of meat."

            "Finally! Yes! They are indeed made out of meat. And they've been trying to get in touch with us for almost a hundred of their years."

            "So what does the meat have in mind?"

            "First it wants to talk to us. Then I imagine it wants to explore the universe, contact other sentients, swap ideas and information. The usual."

            "We're supposed to talk to meat?"

            "That's the idea. That's the message they're sending out by radio. 'Hello. Anyone out there? Anyone home?' That sort of thing."

            "They actually do talk, then. They use words, ideas, concepts?"

            "Oh, yes. Except they do it with meat."

            "I thought you just told me they used radio."

            "They do, but what do you think is on the radio? Meat sounds! You know how when you slap or flap meat it makes a noise? They talk by flapping their meat at each other. They can even sing by squirting air thorough their meat."

            "Omigod. Singing meat. This is altogether too much. So what do you advise?"

            "Officially or unofficially?"

            "Both."

            "Officially, we are required to contact, welcome, and log in any and all sentient races or multibeings in the quadrant, without prejudice, fear, or favour. Unofficially, I advise that we erase the records and forget the whole thing."

            "I was hoping you would say that."

            "It seems harsh, but there is a limit. Do we really want to make contact with meat?"

            "I agree one hundred percent. What's there to say?" 'Hello, meat. How's it going?' But will this work? How many planets are we dealing with here?"

            "Just the one. They can travel to other planets in special meat containers, but they can't live on them. And being meat, they only travel through C space, which limits them to the speed of light and makes the possibility of their ever making contact pretty slim. Infinitesimal, in fact."

            "So we just pretend there's no one home in this sector."

            "That's it."

            "Cruel. But you said it yourself, who wants to meet meat? And the ones who have been aboard our vessels, the ones you have probed? You're sure they won't remember?"

            "They'll be considered crackpots if they do. We went into their heads and smoothed out their meat so that we're just a dream to them."

            "A dream to meat! How strangely appropriate, that we should be meat's dream."

            "And we can mark this sector unoccupied."

            "Good. Agreed, officially and unofficially. Case closed. Any others? Anyone interesting on that side of the galaxy?"

            "Yes, a rather shy but sweet hydrogen-core cluster intelligence in a class nine star in G445 zone. Was in contact two galactic rotations ago, wants to be friendly again."

            "They always come around."

            "And why not? Imagine how unbearably, how unutterably cold the universe would be if one were all alone!"


        • #9

          Moore's law relates specifically to technological advances, and is not related AT ALL to evolution.

           

          ###### Why can't I post anything here anymore??? ######

          Comment


          • SteinbergerHack
            SteinbergerHack commented
            Editing a comment

            Gromit wrote:

            Moore's law relates specifically to technological advances, and is not related AT ALL to evolution.

             


            Are you sure?  Certainly that wasn't what he had in mind, but it is possible that he inadvertently discovered a basic rule of complexity WTY generational systems development?


        • #10

          Red Ant wrote:

          http://io9.com/moores-law-predicts-life-originated-billions-of-years-476129496

           



          Another way of stating the numbers:  There isn't enough time for life as we know it to have evolved.

          4.5 billion years seems like a long time, until you remember that you have 4.5 billion transistors on a thumb drive, and that is apparently not a big enough number to make magic happen.

          So, indeed, there must have been an outside influence that started life on earth.

           

          Comment


          • moogerfooger
            moogerfooger commented
            Editing a comment

            Used2BMarkoh wrote:

            Red Ant wrote:

            http://io9.com/moores-law-predicts-life-originated-billions-of-years-476129496

             



            Another way of stating the numbers:  There isn't enough time for life as we know it to have evolved.

            4.5 billion years seems like a long time, until you remember that you have 4.5 billion transistors on a thumb drive, and that is apparently not a big enough number to make magic happen.

            So, indeed, there must have been an outside influence that started life on earth.

             


            or its all bull****************.  interesting that creationists like sciency sounding stuff when it seems to support their theology, but hate it when it doesn't. 


          • Red Ant
            Red Ant commented
            Editing a comment

            Used2BMarkoh wrote:

            Red Ant wrote:

            So, indeed, there must have been an outside influence that started life on earth.

             


            "Must have been"? No. "May have been"? certainly.



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